兰州铁路枢纽总图方案研究

合理确定兰州铁路枢纽布局有助于完善西北地区铁路网络,促进兰州—西宁城市群发展,提升欧亚大陆桥互联互通能力,发挥兰州地区的桥头堡作用。阐述兰州铁路枢纽现状,指出枢纽内客运站分工及货运设施功能存在问题,提出枢纽发展规划;研究提出兰州铁路枢纽总图方案,包括干支线、疏解线及联络线工程方案与总图方案设计。研究结果表明,兰州将形成衔接11条铁路干线,南客北货的大型环状枢纽格局,更好地支撑西北地区核心路网运输。     

Implications of firm experiential knowledge and sequential FDI on performance of Japanese subsidiaries in Brazil

A foreign firm investing in a culturally different market usually faces a certain level of uncertainty. This study proposes that as a multinational company accumulates experiential knowledge, it develops more capabilities and know-how and consequently reflects on subsidiary performance. Based on a subsidiary level sample of Japanese firms located in Brazil, the empirical findings of this study demonstrate that the accumulation of both international and local experiential knowledge can positively affect subsidiary performance. Moreover, a firm’s sequential foreign direct investment decision in the local market is a key strategy to achieving a higher level of subsidiary profitability in comparison with a first-time investment firm.

当前启动内需与宏观经济政策的着重点

要通过启动内需而保增长,就必须有效调整货币政策和财政政策,实行积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。本文通过多方面分析,指出当前在我国启动内需的宏观经济政策调控中应该更多地注重运用财政政策,慎用货币政策,并就如何更加有效地运用财税政策提出相关建议。     

货币危机:基于资产运营视角的诠释和预警

本文以国民资产负债表为起点,应用资产运营一般模式的理论和一般均衡的方法,通过对现金资产、信贷资产、证券资产和实体资产四个市场的分析,从独特的角度研究了货币危机产生的机理,并据此提出了货币危机预警的有关指标体系.     

政府支出的构成与中国经济波动——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

政府支出对于一国经济波动具有显著性影响。基于我国的现实数据,向量自回归模型的脉冲响应函数证实：（1）生产性政府支出与消费性政府支出对于总产出具有不同的冲击效应,并且生产性政府支出对于产出具有相对较大的影响;（2）无论是政府生产性支出还是消费性支出,其对于不同部门的产出均具有不同的冲击效应,即政府支出的冲击效应具有部门依存性特征。在此基础上,文章建立了一个包含不同部门与政府支出不同构成成分的多部门经济NK-DSGE模型,考察了政府支出冲击的不同构成成分对于我国经济波动的影响。贝叶斯脉冲响应分析的结果支持了经验证据,并且模型主要变量的周期性特征与现实数据较为接近。在此基础上,贝叶斯冲击分解的结果指出,相对于消费性政府支出而言,生产性政府支出冲击对于各宏观经济变量的波动具有更大的推动作用。因此,在使用支出政策熨平经济波动时,政府需依据现实经济情况及时调整政府支出的构成。     

我国物流企业基层员工激励机制研究

21世纪,物流业在我国蓬勃发展,但我国物流基层员工的流失率却一直居高不下,大大影响物流企业的形象和经济效益。通过访谈和问卷调查的方式,剖析我国物流企业所面临的困境,分析物流基层员工流失率居高不下的原因,旨在探讨如何建立起一套适合我国物流基层员工的激励机制。     

Trade liberalization,division of labor and welfare under oligopoly

Incorporating explicitly division of labor into a two-country general oligopolistic equilibrium model, we examine the effects of trade liberalization on firm productivity and welfare. We show that a tariff reduction increases the firm productivity of the trading industries but decreases that of the non-trading industries. An expansion of the trading industries, in contrast, decreases the firm productivity of both the trading and non-trading industries. We then find that a tariff reduction necessarily reduces welfare while the welfare effect of expansion of trading industries is ambiguous.     

Welfare under friction and uncertainty: General equilibrium evaluation of temporary employment in the U.S.

Temporary contracts usually fall outside of employee protection litigation, thus they are often cheaper than permanent contracts and are offered on-demand by firms. In the last two decades, there has been a sharp growth in such contracts in the U.S. labor market. This paper investigates the welfare consequences of offering temporary contracts in the U.S., an environment with low employee protection litigation and high production risk for firms. Employee protection litigation creates firing rigidity in regular labor markets. Pairing firing rigidity with high production risk, firms reduce employment and output, which generates welfare loss. The inexpensive and flexible nature of temporary contracts offers firms a buffer strategy in making employment decisions under risk and navigating the firing rigidity of the regular labor sector, thereby reducing welfare loss. However, temporary contracts cannot fully compensate for the efficiency cost from rising firing rigidity and risk.     

Real-life cost of vitamin K antagonist treatment in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation in France in 2013

Aims: Data highlighting the cost drivers for non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients in terms of vitamin K antagonist (VKA) treatment and monitoring are lacking in France. This study aimed to evaluate the real-life daily cost of VKA treatment in 2013, in French patients suffering from NVAF.

Methods: This longitudinal observational study was performed using the EGB (Echantillon Généraliste des Bénéficiaires) database, a random sample of the French national insurance (NHI) database, which covers 80% of the population. All adult patients whose first NVAF anticoagulant treatment in 2013 was a VKA were analyzed. Costs were calculated for the duration of follow-up and then divided by the number of days of therapy. The analysis was performed both from the French NHI perspective (amount reimbursed by the NHI) and from a collective perspective.

Results: In this study, 3,254 NVAF patients treated with VKA in 2013 were included, and this sample comprised 52.6% males. The mean daily cost of VKA treatment was €1.13 (±1.18) according to the collective perspective (89.4% of this cost was associated to INR measurement) and €1.05 (±1.16) according to the NHI perspective.

Limitations: As diagnoses associated with procedures are not available in the EGB database, proxies were used, and an algorithm was created to define the AF population.

Conclusions: This analysis is the first to consider an exhaustive spectrum of the costs of VKA treatment in France using EGB data. VKA medication requires exhaustive follow-up, and, thus, associated costs are important. The results of the present study confirmed this close follow-up for VKA patients, making the cost of treatment by VKA nearly 10-times more expensive than the cost of medication itself.     

Geographical concentration and the dynamics of countries' specialization in technologies

This paper examines the empirical dynamics of countries' technological specialization in six technology fields using distribution dynamics. In all technology fields innovation activities are performed by relatively few countries and the degree of concentration is fairly stable in time. Intra-distribution dynamics is characterized by persistence of within field countries' specialization levels around or below the mean, while high specialization levels revert towards lower values. This strengthens the case for absorptive capacity. Electronics show some distinctive properties: they have the highest degree of geographical concentration and numerous small countries among those specialized; they also are the least mobile technology field. In a Schumpeterian perspective, this is in line with "creative accumulation".