邵永铁路引入永州铁路地区方案研究

邵永铁路是国家中长期铁路网规划中呼南通道的组成部分,在路网中具有重要意义和作用。根据永州铁路地区内既有线路概况,以及永州城市总体规划及客运需求,综合考虑相关规划线路建设时序,研究邵永铁路引入永州铁路地区方案,即接入既有衡柳场方案和新建永州东站2套建设方案及其子方案系统。通过比较分析各项地区接入方案的线路布局方式、工程投资额度及对城市规划的影响,推荐采用邵永铁路引入永州站衡柳场并改造车站咽喉、预留高速场方案,从而实现邵永铁路与永州铁路地区其他铁路的分工协同,减少对既有铁路的运营干扰,提高永州铁路地区运输能力利用率。     

Probability of default in collateralized credit operations for small business

The paper examines how the collateral affects the probability of default for small firms. We present a stylized theoretical model to derive the relationship between the level of collateral and subsequent loan default. We find that the probability of default is negatively correlated with the level of collateral, which is intuitive. Subsequently, we test this relationship by using a proprietary database of collateralized loans of small Brazilian enterprises.     

我国专利默示许可制度构建

由于现有制度并不能解决司法实务中面临的所有问题，因此在我国进行专利默示许可制度构建势在必行。分析指出，我国应首先完善《民法总则》中与专利默示许可相关的基础性规定，并在《专利法》中对具有普遍意义的特定情形下的专利默示许可进行明文规定。同时，应明确专利默示许可规则的确立与TRIPS协议的基本要求并不冲突。     

The CAPM strikes back? An equilibrium model with disasters

Embedding disasters into a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms induces strong nonlinearity in the pricing kernel, helping explain the empirical failure of the (consumption) CAPM. Our single-factor model reproduces the failure of the CAPM in explaining the value premium in finite samples without disasters and its relative success in samples with disasters. Due to beta measurement errors, the estimated beta-return relation is flat, consistent with the beta “anomaly,” even though the true beta-return relation is strongly positive. Finally, the consumption CAPM fails in simulations, even though a nonlinear model with the true pricing kernel holds exactly by construction.     

Multifactor CES general equilibrium: Models and applications

Sector-specific multifactor CES elasticities of substitution and the corresponding productivity growth are jointly measured by regressing the growth of per-factor cost shares against the growth of factor prices. We use linked input-output tables for Japan and the Republic of Korea as the data source for factor price and cost shares in two temporally distant states. We then construct a multisectoral general equilibrium model using the system of estimated CES unit cost functions and evaluate the economy-wide propagation of an exogenous productivity stimulus in terms of welfare. Further, we examine the differences between models based on a priori elasticities such as Leontief and Cobb-Douglas.     

Bringing History In: Policy accumulation and general policy alienation

Research mainly looked at problems public professionals have with specific policy programmes. However, policies are not developed in a vacuum. Public professionals are often confronted with (a series of) policy changes, intended to refine, replace or complement other policies. This policy accumulation results in professionals having a certain predisposition towards policies in general. To conceptualize this predisposition, we introduce the term general policy alienation. We investigate whether the earlier developed policy alienation scale can be adapted to measure general policy alienation. Our analyses show that the scale performs satisfactorily. Theoretical relevance, as well as directions for practical applications are discussed.     

Re-examining risk premiums in the Fama–French model: The role of investor sentiment

This paper reconstructs the Fama–French three-factor (F–F) model as a panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) framework to investigate the differentiated effects of investor sentiment proxies-the volatility index (VIX), credit default swap (CDS), and TED spread-on the three risk premiums. Sample period spans from 2003: 1Q to 2013: 4Q. Sample objects are 58 semiconductor companies listed on Taiwan Security Exchange Corporation. The empirical results report that stock returns display a nonlinear path, and the three risk premiums are time-varying, depending on different proxies of investor sentiment in different regimes. Market premiums fall as investors in stock markets show extreme optimism or extreme pessimism. Except in rare situations, the size premium is significant and decreases with the increase in the VIX. Returns in holding growth stocks dominate holding value stocks when the investors show extreme pessimism or optimism. However, in normal sentiment of investment, value stocks earn more returns than growth stocks.     

Attitudes toward advertising held by the boomers and the busters: some facts and myths

In the United States one of the common perceptions of young consumers, called the baby busters or the Xers, is that they are more critical of advertising in general than the baby boomers. Unfortunately, however, little empirical evidence is available to back up this perception. This study compares the boomers and the busters in terms of their general attitude towards advertising and specific advertising beliefs. Contrary to popular press reports that busters have a more negative attitude towards advertising than baby boomers, no significant differences were found in the two groups' general attitude towards advertising and in four of five ad-belief factors. In fact, the busters were found to have more favourable beliefs about advertising's utility as a source of hedonic amusement, challenging the popular press portrayal of the busters as ‘cynical gripers’. On the other hand, consistent with the popular press reports, regression analysis showed that the busters are knowing consumers and they are perhaps more suspicious and critical of advertising hypes than the boomers. Since the findings may be relevant only in the US market, replications of the study in other countries would be an important contribution to global marketers.     

Estimates of the cost of equity for public utilities, 1961–1976

Using a simple version of the dividend cash flow (DCF) model of stock valuation, the cost of equity for public utilities is often inferred to be equal to the sum of the dividend yield and the expected rate of growth in dividends. Witnesses who employ this approach generally extrapolate past growth patterns into the future and then assume that investors expect these trends to continue; no effort is made to actually assess the expectations of investors. This approach to estimating the cost of equity for public utilities is criticized for the failure to develop testable hypotheses as an inferential basis for testing the statistical reliability of estimates of the cost of equity. This article demonstrates an alternative to the traditional approach, based on the premise that reliable estimates of the cost of equity are derived only within a methodological framework that produces testable hypotheses. The Gordon model of share valuation is formulated in such a way as to show that there is a systematic and predictable relationship between the ratio of market price to book value of common stock and a firm's normal or expected return on equity. This relationship suggests an econometric model that not only tests the Gordon model of share valuation but produces at the same time, inferences concerning the cost of equity. Using this approach, year-end estimates of the cost of equity for electric utilities are determined for the 16-yr period from 1961 to 1976.     

对经济与技术发展过程中收入调节问题的新探讨

发展方式转变的基础是技术进步。技术进步的结果是新产品产业的出现和传统产业的技术改造与升级。为了保持社会总供求平衡和促进新产品产业的发展，政府干预社会工资水平的调整成为经济社会平稳发展所必不可少的重要环节。传统产业的技术进步，将直接降低产品成本和销售价格，从而也必将增加社会居民的消费福利。社会工资收入水平应随着本国产业结构的发展与完善而不断进行调整，使居民的消费结构和消费福利随之不断完善和提高。