Bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh: A general equilibrium approach

India and Bangladesh have pursued policies of trade liberalization since the early 1990s. However, owing to the differential speeds of opening up, Bangladesh's bilateral trade deficit with India widened substantially over the years. This aggravated the economic and the political tensions between the economies. It has been held that promotion of free trade between the two economies may enhance the trade and hence economic cooperation between them. Against this backdrop the present paper proposes a theoretical framework that provides a general equilibrium determination of the commodity pattern of trade and hence locates the comparative advantages of the economies. The empirical implementation of the model considers trade in 25 sectors comparable in the input–output tables of the economies. The study isolates the gains from free trade accruing to either economy. The paper also explores the pattern of bilateral trade when each economy produces goods by utilizing their own as well as the other country's technology. The gains from this trading arrangement are also isolated.     

新凯因斯DSGE模型与货币政策法则之汇率动态分析

对于小型开放经济而言,当经济存在价格僵硬的情况下,中央银行在面对不同冲击发生时,各政策法则执行对汇率波动的影响及动态调整过程差异较大。从中国台湾地区的情况为案例来看,在稳定汇率波动方面:当国内技术冲击时,货币法则优于利率法则;当国外通货膨胀时,利率法则优于货币法则;当国外利率冲击时,执行利率法则或货币法则,其结果无显著差异。在汇率动态调整方面:当国外利率调升时,中央银行执行利率法则与货币法则下,汇率的瞬时反应为过度贬值;当国外物价膨胀时,执行利率法则与货币法则下,汇率的瞬时反应表现为立即升值;当国内技术进步冲击时,因为国外冲击对小型开放经济体系影响力道较强,使得国内技术进度对体系的影响相对较小,其中在利率法则下,汇率微幅贬值,而在货币法则下,汇率微幅升值。     

利率模型的发展及计量方法的应用

利率模型的发展和完善与计量经济学方法的发展密不可分。综述利率模型的发展和计量方法之应用对利率模型的推动作用,重点介绍单因子扩散利率模型及其极大似然估计、广义矩估计和非参数方法在利率模型中的应用。     

技术通用性、全球创新链嵌入与国际知识流

文章通过技术的通用性水平差异刻画各国制造业在全球创新链中的位置,并在非线性双指数知识流模型的基础上,分析知识在全球创新链不同环节间的流动。研究表明,知识流在全球创新链的上游和下游强度较高,在中游强度较低,中国制造业的融入位置处于全球创新链的中下游,并随着中国内需市场的扩张和经济结构的转型,下游化趋势日趋显著。在下游化的过程中,中国制造业企业完成了由低端技术的供给者向技术资源的整合者的转型,实现了对全球的科学知识资源的高效利用,但研发资源集中于下游环节使得企业更加依赖国外技术,技术革新过程受制于人。在上游通用性技术领域,中国制造业企业仍然处于追赶者的角色,亟需抓住新一轮通用性技术革新的机遇,从供给侧发力,通过创新驱动提高制造业整体竞争力,推动中国经济的高质量发展,由知识使用者向知识创造者转型。     

中国多区域社会保障均衡的政策模拟

本文在介绍社会保障研究和多区域CGE进展的基础上,提出将社会保障研究从传统的单区域局部均衡框架推进至多区域一般均衡的研究框架,并构建了一个中国多区域社会保障可计算一般均衡模型(Multi-Regional,MReCGE-C),该模型对居民根据城乡属性和年龄结构进行了分组,放松了要素流动的限制,使劳动力和资本可以同时跨区域流动,并设计了一种基于居民终生效用的区域均衡机制,通过区域变量可以调控和测度区域差距。最后利用MReCGE-C模型针对中国社会保障政策下的两种典型方案进行了模拟。     

某煤制烯烃项目总图运输设计分析

某煤制烯烃项目是国家"十一五"期间核准的特大型煤制烯烃工业示范工程。项目包括石油、化工、电力、铁路运输等多类别工业生产单元;本文通过对该项目总平面布置的分析,归纳了决定烯烃项目总图布置的主要影响因素,总结了煤制烯烃总平面布置的主要特点,全面描述了煤制烯烃总图设计的内容及方法,为其他煤制烯烃项目及相关煤化工总图设计工作提供参考。     

General equilibrium in economies with adverse selection

We model economies of adverse selection as Arrow–Debreu economies. In the spirit of Prescott and Townsend (Econometrica 52(1), 21–45, 1984a), we identify the consumption set of the individuals with the set of lotteries over net transfers. Thus, prices are linear in lotteries, but they may be non linear in commodity bundles. First, we study a weak equilibrium notion by viewing the economy of adverse selection as a pure exchange economy. The weak equilibrium set is non empty, but some of the allocations may be inefficient, and the equilibria indeterminate. Second, following Prescott and Townsend (Econometrica 52(1), 21–45, 1984a), we introduce an intermediary (firm) supplying feasible and incentive compatible measures. Equilibria are constrained efficient, but the equilibrium set is empty for an open set of economies containing the Rothschild and Stiglitz insurance economies. The research of A. Rustichini was supported by the NSF grant NSF/SES-0136556.     

Moving toward the EU or the Middle East? An assessment of alternative Turkish foreign policies utilizing the GTAP framework

This paper assesses the new orientation in Turkish foreign policy towards the Arab world by analyzing the potential impact of Turkey’s membership in either the European Union (EU) or the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA). We utilize the most recent version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, its global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, and the gravity border effect approach to estimate the ad-valorem tariff equivalents (AVEs) of non-tariff barriers (NTBs). In our overall analysis, we account for 24 various sectors. However, in our evaluation, we focus primarily on the food and agricultural sectors because this sector is characterized by high tariff and non-tariff protection. In the CGE simulation analysis, we consider the removal of tariffs and NTBs simultaneously. After projecting the GTAP framework to 2020, we conclude that Turkey would gain unambiguously from EU membership, whereas Turkey’s gains from GAFTA membership would be more limited. The paper also presents that the welfare gains from the removal of NTBs are of considerable importance and would generally be greater than the gains stemming from the elimination of import tariffs.     

Origins of Menger’s thought in French liberal economists

Carl Menger, who became regarded as the founder of the Austrian School, did not only confront the German Historical School and criticize British Classical Political Economy, he also read the French Liberal economists. The link between Say and Menger has already been asserted, but on an intuitive basis. It seemed necessary to give substantial proof of its true extent, as well as to document it with proper archival work—that is done in the present article. Menger’s reading of other French authors: Count Pellegrino Rossi, who succeeded Say at the Collège de France, Michel Chevalier, a major name of the French Industrialization, Frédéric Bastiat, the famous defender of free-trade, is less known. It is also documented here, bringing to light first-hand material, mainly from the Menger Collection located in Japan, and the Perkins Library at Duke University. Thus are acknowledged the origins of Menger’s thought in French liberal economists.

新疆文化旅游资源开发潜力分析

地域文化和自然风光是地区旅游资源的两大基本要素，它们共同为旅游业发展奠定了客观基础。新疆是我国文化旅游资源最丰富的地区之一，具有种类繁多、文化底蕴深厚、知名度高、独特性强等特点。少数民族文化、遗迹类文化和红色文化是新疆地域文化百花园中的三枝奇葩，也是新疆文化旅游资源的三大支柱，对它们分别梳理，可以更好地展示新疆地域文化旅游资源的开发潜力。