高校学术不端行为治理嵌套逻辑建模及作用路径与影响效应研究

为探究高校学术不端行为治理因素对科研人员个体的影响效用及作用机理，基于计算实验方法，构建由高校系统、智能主体、智能主体基元3个层次相互嵌入构成的高校学术不端行为治理嵌套逻辑理论模型，并选取实验观察的影响因素，对高校学术不端行为治理嵌套逻辑理论模型进行计算实验建模及实验，揭示出3个层次的影响因素通过不同路径产生治理效果：在智能主体心理层面，个体主动抵制、“不想”产生学术不端行为进而降低发生率，其治理效果最为显著；在高校系统层面，提高高校机构学术不端行为查处能力进而提升查处效率，使个体“不敢”产生学术不端行为，其治理效果次之；在智能主体层面，强化制度警示效果的持续性，使学术不端行为“不能”在个体间传染与蔓延。     

Dynamic functional time-series forecasts of foreign exchange implied volatility surfaces

This paper presents static and dynamic versions of univariate, multivariate, and multilevel functional time-series methods to forecast implied volatility surfaces in foreign exchange markets. We find that dynamic functional principal component analysis generally improves out-of-sample forecast accuracy. Specifically, the dynamic univariate functional time-series method shows the greatest improvement. Our models lead to multiple instances of statistically significant improvements in forecast accuracy for daily EUR–USD, EUR–GBP, and EUR–JPY implied volatility surfaces across various maturities, when benchmarked against established methods. A stylised trading strategy is also employed to demonstrate the potential economic benefits of our proposed approach.     

Leaving your tailings behind: Environmental bonds,bankruptcy and waste cleanup

This paper studies the impacts of an environmental bond, which fully covers waste cleanup costs, on a mining firm's optimal actions over the full life cycle of a mine, when bankruptcy may shift cleanup costs to the government. A firm's stochastic optimal control problem is described by an HJB equation with the resource price modelled as an Ito process. A theoretical result shows that under certain assumptions, an environmental bond can ensure that the option to declare bankruptcy has no impact on the firm's optimal actions. A numerical solution is implemented for a hypothetical copper mine using two different models of bankruptcy risk. Numerical results show that when bankruptcy is an option and no bond is required, the firm produces too much waste relative to a benchmark case, resulting in an efficiency loss and a cleanup liability imposed on government. In the presence of bankruptcy risk, a bond ensures that the firm acts optimally and no efficiency loss is imposed on society.     

Forest cover,development, and sustainability in Costa Rica: Can one policy fit all?

Forest Transition Theory offers the hope that global economic development can continue in tandem with forest recovery. Costa Rica has been lauded for its successful forest transition—once the fastest deforesting country in Central America, forests began to regrow in the 1980s and have had a steady trajectory of recovery since. This forest regrowth can be linked temporally to Costa Rican policies that have promoted tourism and discouraged small-scale agriculture. We use a case study from the Bellbird Biological Corridor (Corredor Biológico Pájaro Campana; CBPC), Costa Rica, combining remote sensing analysis with interviews and ethnography, to unravel the relationship between national policy, forest regrowth, and social-ecological sustainability. The forest cover change analysis between 1986 and 2014 indicates that, at the parcel-level, national policy has served to promote farm abandonment in favor of tourism and that this change has been critical to forest regrowth. However, these changes have occurred within a development framework that has created new social-ecological challenges that threaten future forest and economic sustainability. Examining the parcel-level impacts of the driving forces of landscape change highlights that forest cover is an insufficient proxy for conservation success, and conservation policy focused primarily on forest recovery may create new sustainability challenges.     

The “grabbing hand” or the “helping hand” view of corruption: Evidence from bank foreign market entries

This study adopts a resource perspective to explore a non-linear relationship between corruption and two measures of bank foreign market commitment, the capital invested and the share of equity, on a sample of 131 bank entries in forty host countries. Our findings support a U-shaped relationship providing evidence of the “grabbing hand” view at low to moderate levels of corruption and, supporting the “helping hand” view at high levels of it. In addition, market-seeking motives are found to have a positive moderating effect on this relationship. This study contributes to the long-standing debate about the effects of corruption on FDI.     

心智账户理论综述:实证、因素与应用

作为行为金融学的基础理论之一,Thaler提出的心智账户是强调人们心理上对决策结果进行记账、编码、估价和预算的行为过程,且心智账户的损益核算遵循前景理论的价值函数特征。与传统金融学的财富可替代性假设相悖,心智账户给出了传统理论无法解释的众多市场非理性行为的深刻洞见。基于对心智账户理论的提出、特征、影响因素、理论应用等方面最新文献的梳理,本文综述认为:心智账户理论的未来发展,必须致力于构建其神经元理论基础,同时扩展动态参照点的研究方法;最后,建立具有中国社会文化特征的居民心智账户及其理论体系。     

Explaining adoption of mobile banking with the theory of trying,general self-confidence,and cynicism

Drawing upon the theory of trying, the present study goes a step further by including two important, but rarely addressed factors in the context of new technology adoption: general self-confidence and cynicism. Both of these variables are considered significant precursors of attitudes, particularly in the context of emerging and developing countries. The data were collected from 557 bank customers and then analyzed using Smart PLS. The findings reveal that intention of adopting mobile banking is determined by attitude toward mobile banking, which in turn is determined by attitude toward success, attitude toward failure, and attitude toward learning to use mobile banking. The last three attitudes are significantly influenced by general self-confidence and cynicism.     

面向大学生创业的众筹模式运用:基于扎根理论的分析

众筹是一种面向公众募资,以支持发起活动的个人或组织的特定目标和任务的群体行为。这种新兴的互联网商业模式更贴近大众,且与政府众创计划紧密呼应。探索了众筹模式在大学生创业过程中的实际应用和运作机制,通过各类众筹网站选取不同类型大学生创业样本,利用扎根理论进行了概念分析与编码,分析了大学生在创业过程中对于众筹的想法及顾虑,以及面向大学生创业的众筹模式运作机制,可为大学生创业提供理论参考。     

转型期民航产业组织分析框架创新——中国民航业的经验检验

本文针对产业组织理论(SCP框架)在转型期民航产业组织研究中存在的局限性,在比较分析民航产业组织演变的国际经验基础上,提出了转型期民航产业组织的RPSCP框架,取得了理论分析和实证检验的一致性结论,证明了在转型期民航产业组织研究中RPSCP框架比SCP框架更具解释力.在此基础上,提出了中国民航产业组织优化的政策建议.     

Data Science: an Action Plan for Expanding the Technical Areas of the Field of Statistics

An action plan to enlarge the technical areas of statistics focuses on the data analyst. The plan sets out six technical areas of work for a university department, and advocates a specific allocation of resources devoted to research in each area and to courses in each area. The value of technical work is judged by the extent to which it benefits the data analyst, either directly or indirectly. The plan is also applicable to government research labs and corporate research organizations.