Valuation of commodity derivatives in a new multi-factor model

This paper extends existing commodity valuation models to allow for stochastic volatility and simultaneous jumps in the spot price and spot volatility. Closed-form valuation formulas for forwards, futures, futures options, geometric Asian options and commodity-linked bonds are obtained using the Heston (1993) and Bakshi and Madan (2000) methodology. Stochastic volatility and jumps do not affect the futures price at a given point in time. However, numerical examples indicate that they play important roles in pricing options on futures. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Implied Volatility of Interest Rate Options: An Empirical Investigation of the Market Model

We analyze the empirical properties of the volatilityimplied in options on the 13-week US Treasury bill rate. These options havenot been studied previously. It is shown that a European style put optionon the interest rate is equivalent to a call option on a zero-coupon bond.We apply the LIBOR market model and conduct a battery of validity tests tocompare three different volatility specifications: contact, affine, and exponentialvolatility. It appears that the additional parameter in the affine and theexponential volatility function is not justified. Overall, the LIBOR marketmodel fares well in describing these options.     

Sub-Replication and Replenishing Premium: Efficient Pricing of Multi-State Lookbacks

The direct valuation procedure of performing discounted expectation to obtain the prices of multi-state lookback options may lead to insurmountable complexity and numerical difficulties. The computation may require numerical differentiation of the joint distribution function of the extremum values, then followed by numerical integration over a semi-infinite domain. In this paper, we illustrate the use of an alternative approach that significantly simplifies the calculations of multi-state lookback option prices. The financial intuition behind the new approach involves the choice of a sub-replicating portfolio and the adoption of the corresponding replenishing strategy to achieve the subsequent full replication of the derivative. The replenishing premium is obtained by performing the integration of an appropriate distribution function over the range of asset price within which under replication occurs. The sub-replication and replenishment procedures may be utilized as hedging strategies for the lookback options. The pricing and hedging properties of multi-state lookback options are also discussed. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Impact of Divergent Consumer Confidence on Option Prices

This paper investigates the impact of divergent consumer confidence on option prices. To model this, we assume that consumers disagree on the expected growth rate of aggregate consumption. With other conditions unchanged in the discrete-time Black–Scholes option-pricing model, we show that the representative consumer will have declining relative risk aversion instead of the assumed constant relative risk aversion. In this case all options will be underpriced by the Black–Scholes model under the assumption of bivariate lognormality. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Option pricing in the presence of natural boundaries and a quadratic diffusion term

This paper uses a probabilistic change-of-numeraire technique to compute closed-form prices of European options to exchange one asset against another when the relative price of the underlying assets follows a diffusion process with natural boundaries and a quadratic diffusion coefficient. The paper shows in particular how to interpret the option price formula in terms of exercise probabilities which are calculated under the martingale measures associated with two specific numeraire portfolios. An application to the pricing of bond options and certain interest rate derivatives illustrates the main results.     

Binomial Option Pricing with Skewed Asset Returns

This research presents a method for estimating the parameters of the binomial option pricing model necessary to appropriately price calls on assets with asymmetric end-of-period return distributions. Parameters of the binomial model are shown to be a function of the mean, variance, and skewness of the underlying return distribution. It is also shown that failure to incorporate skewness results in the mispricing of the call.     

股票增值权激励有效吗

股票增值权是上市公司对管理层实施激励的重要做法，在我国大型国有控股境外上市公司中普遍采用。本文以中国石化为研究对象，对实施股票增值权计划后的公司财务绩效、治理机制与管理层代理成本、股票市场反应等作了实证检验。本文认为，股票增值权计划对公司财务绩效提升、治理机制改善具有一定的积极正面效应；股票增值权在等待期结束后的开始行权年度激励效果最大；股票市场对股票增值权的行权存在着过度反应。最后本文提出了改进股票增值权激励的政策建议。     

中国饲料工业期货的价格发现实证研究

本文借助向量自回归模型、协整检验、误差修正模型、方差分解、脉冲响应函数等方法,以中国唯一的饲料工业期货———大连商品交易所豆粕期货品种为例,研究了期货价格与现货价格之间的动态关系,定量刻画了期货市场在价格发现中的作用。研究结果显示:豆粕期货价格与现货价格存在相互引导关系,并且期货与现货价格之间存在长期均衡关系,对豆粕期货来说,期货市场在价格发现功能中起到主导作用。     

American Parisian options

In this article, we describe the various sorts of American Parisian options and propose valuation formulae. Although there is no closed-form valuation for these products in the non-perpetual case, we have been able to reformulate their price as a function of the exercise frontier. In the perpetual case, closed-form solutions or approximations are obtained by relying on excursion theory. We derive the Laplace transform of the first instant Brownian motion reaches a positive level or, without interruption, spends a given amount of time below zero. We perform a detailed comparison of perpetual standard, barrier and Parisian options.