Why do people save in cash? Distrust,memories of banking crises,weak institutions and dollarization

The paper analyzes why households hold sizeable shares of their assets in cash at home rather than at banks – a phenomenon that is widespread in many economies but for which information is scarce. Using survey data from ten Central, Eastern and Southeastern European countries, I document the relevance of this behavior and show that cash preferences cannot be fully explained by whether people are banked or unbanked. The analysis reveals that a lack of trust in banks, memories of past banking crises and weak tax enforcement are important factors. Moreover, cash preferences are stronger in dollarized economies where a “safe” foreign currency serves as a store of value.     

Regulator performance,regulatory environment and outcomes: An examination of insurance regulator career incentives on state insurance markets

In this paper we test whether the past or future labor market choices of insurance commissioners provide incentives for regulators in states with price regulation to either favor or oppose the industry by allowing prices that differ significantly from what would otherwise be the competitive market outcome. Using biographical data on insurance regulators, economic and state specific market structure and regulatory variables, and state premium and loss data on the personal automobile insurance market, we find no evidence consumers in prior approval states paid significantly different “unit prices” for insurance than consumers in states that allow competitive market forces to determine equilibrium prices during the time period 1985–2002. We do, however, find evidence regulators who obtained the position of insurance commissioner by popular election and those who seek higher elective office following their tenure as insurance commissioner allow higher overall “unit prices” relative to competitive market states. The “unit price” of insurance in regulated states is not statistically different from the competitive market outcome for regulators that make lateral moves back into state government and it is mildly higher for regulators who enter the insurance industry following their tenure. Finally, we find some evidence regulators who describe themselves as consumer advocates are successful reducing the price of insurance in favor of consumers in regulated markets. Overall the results are consistent with the existence of asymmetric information in the regulatory process that agents use to enhance their career aspirations.     

Voting rules and the success of connected lending in 19th century New England banks

How well do decision-making processes within firms serve as control mechanisms? The voting rules governing loan approval in early 19th century New England banks are analyzed to find out. These banks exhibited high levels of lending to directors and their associates. Some theories of corporate governance argue that this could lead to increased managerial opportunism. However, a model shows that banks that require more votes to be won in the loan approval process prevent projects with private gains and social costs. The historical data are consistent with the idea that higher levels of consensus raised the profitability of banks.     

Early Mortality Declines at the Dawn of Modern Growth*

We explore the hypothesis that demographic changes which began in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries are at the root of the acceleration in growth rates at the dawn of the modern age. During this period, life tables for Geneva and Venice show a decline in adult mortality; French marriage registers reveal an important increase in literacy; historians measure an acceleration of economic growth. We develop an endogenous growth model with a realistic survival law in which rising longevity increases individual incentives to invest in education and fosters growth. We quantitatively estimate that the observed improvements in adult mortality account for 70% of the growth acceleration in the pre‐industrial age.     

The impact of news,oil prices,and global market developments on Russian financial markets1

This paper analyses the impact of news, oil prices, and international financial market developments on daily returns on Russian bond and stock markets. First, regarding returns, energy news affects returns, while news from the war in Chechnya is not significant. Market volatility does not appear to be sensitive to either type of news. Second, a significant effect of the growth in oil prices on Russian stock returns is detected. Third, the international influence on Russian financial markets depends upon the degree of financial liberalization. The higher the degree of financial liberalization, the stronger is the impact of US stock returns on Russian financial markets. In addition, banking reform and interest rate liberalization efforts seem to dictate the globalization of Russian stock markets, while it is the progress in liberalizing securities markets and non‐bank financial institutions that matters more for the globalization of Russian bond markets.     

EXPONENTIAL DURATION: A MORE ACCURATE ESTIMATION OF INTEREST RATE RISK

We develop a new method to estimate the interest rate risk of an asset. This method is based on modified duration and is always more accurate than traditional estimation with modified duration. The estimates by this method are close to estimates using traditional duration plus convexity when interest rates decrease. If interest rates rise, investors will suffer larger value declines than predicted by traditional duration plus convexity estimate. The new method avoids this undesirable value overestimation and provides an estimate slightly below the true value. For risk‐averse investors, overestimation of value declines is more desirable and conservative.     

ESTIMATING THE VALUE OF DELIVERY OPTIONS IN FUTURES CONTRACTS

We analyze the effect various delivery options embedded in commodity futures contracts have on the futures price. The two embedded options considered are the timing and location options. We show that early delivery is always optimal when only a timing option is present, but not so when joint options are present. The estimates of the combined options are much smaller than the comparable estimates for the timing option alone. The average value of the joint option is about 5% of the average basis on the first day of the maturity month. This suggests that joint options can increase deliverable supplies while potentially having only a small effect on basis behavior.     

Distinguishing Between Rationales for Short‐Horizon Predictability of Stock Returns

In this paper, we shed light on short‐horizon return reversals. We show theoretically that a risk‐based rationale for reversals implies a relation between returns and past order flow, whereas a reversion in beliefs of biased agents does not do so. The empirical results indicate that returns are more strongly related to own‐return lags than to lagged order imbalances. Thus, the evidence suggests that monthly reversals are not completely captured by inventory effects and may be driven, in part, by belief reversion. We do find that returns are cross‐sectionally related to lagged imbalance innovations at horizons longer than a month.     

Repricing and Executive Turnover

We examine whether the threat of executive turnover faced by a firm affects its decision to reprice stock options held by its executives. We estimate a model of voluntary turnover among top executives and show that the predicted turnover from this model is positively related to the probability of repricing. The relationship is robust to the inclusion of several known determinants of repricing. Our results are consistent with a model in which a tight labor market makes executives hard to replace, forcing firms to reprice stock options when they go underwater.