Currency substitution, portfolio diversification, and money demand

Abstract .  We extend the Thomas (1985) dynamic optimizing model of money demand and currency substitution to the case in which the individual has restricted or no access to foreign currency denominated bonds. In this case currency substitution decisions and asset substitution decisions are not separable. The results obtained suggest that the significance of an expected exchange rate depreciation term in the demand for domestic money provides a valid test for the presence of currency substitution. Applying this approach to six Latin-American countries, we find evidence of currency substitution in Colombia, Dominican Republic, and Venezuela, but not in Brazil and Chile.     

Estimating the expected marginal rate of substitution: A systematic exploitation of idiosyncratic risk

We develop a methodology to estimate the shadow risk free rate or expected intertemporal marginal rate of substitution, “EMRS”. Our technique relies upon exploiting idiosyncratic risk, since theory dictates that idiosyncratic shocks earn the EMRS. We apply our methodology to recent monthly and daily data sets for the New York and Toronto Stock Exchanges. We estimate EMRS with precision and considerable time-series volatility, subject to an identification assumption. Both markets seem to be internally integrated; different assets traded on a given market share the same EMRS. We reject integration between the stock markets, and between stock and money markets.     

INTERSTATE BANKING DEREGULATION AND THE CHANGING NATURE OF BANK MERGERS

We examine a sample of 443 bank mergers between publicly traded banks announced during the 1990s to investigate empirically the role of full interstate banking deregulation. The pre‐deregulation 1990s are characterized by value creation, with mergers involving a high degree of branch overlap experiencing significant announcement gains. Bank mergers in the post‐deregulation 1990s, however, fail to create value, and mergers with a high degree of branch overlap actually experience significant losses. Consistent with prior research, these valuation consequences are magnified for large bank mergers in the 1990s. Overall, our results are consistent with the broader literature on corporate control, suggesting that an economic shock can materially alter industry structure and the economic rationale for the efficient reallocation of assets through merger activity.     

Group affiliation, identity of managers, and the relation between managerial ownership and performance

Two features in Taiwan's companies complicate the ownership-performance relationship. First, the firm's management is usually controlled, either directly or indirectly via equity interlocks, by the controlling family. The shareholding of managers is an access through which the controlling owners can secure control and entrench their private benefits. Second, the management generally consists of individual managers and representatives appointed to top managerial positions by institutions that hold a substantial percentage of shares. The role of corporate managers played by institutions is important in Taiwan's companies. Echoing these two features, empirical results suggest a low inflection point for the nonlinear relation between managerial ownership and performance. Moreover, the impact of managerial ownership on performance varies between different identities of managers and depends on whether the firm is group-affiliated or independent. There is also evidence to show that the relation between individual and institutional managerial ownership is complementary at low levels of ownership and becomes substitutive as ownership gets higher.     

Feedback and the success of irrational investors

We provide a model in which irrational investors trade based upon considerations that have no inherent connection to fundamentals. However, trading activity affects market prices, and because of feedback from security prices to cash flows, the irrational trades influence underlying cash flows. As a result, irrational investors can, in some situations, earn abnormal (i.e., risk-adjusted) profits that can exceed the abnormal profits of rational informed investors. Although the trading of irrational investors cause prices to deviate from fundamental values, stock prices follow a random walk.     

The Nature of Corruption Deterrence in a Competitive Media Sector

This paper compares the deterrence provided by a competitive media sector towards government induced corruption with that of a media monopoly in a setting where the media might raise both true as well as false allegations of corruption. It finds that competition’s impact on corruption deterrence is not necessarily better than a monopoly but rather hinges on a delicate balance between government’s kickback from corruption and the media’s potential benefit from exposure. While the paper does identify conditions in which a competitive media sector would improve upon the deterrence provided by a monopoly, it also find conditions under which it would do no better than a monopoly and in some situations its strategic response could be even worse especially when it intensifies effort towards justifying false allegations.     

3G背景下电信竞争模型与接入规制政策研究

3G正在重组我国的电信产业组织,同时对电信运营商商业竞争模式的变革提出要求。本文构建3G背景下电信竞争模型,分析垄断运营商的网络规模决策及网络竞争的福利效应,并对电信接入定价决策及接入规制政策进行分析。本文的主要结论是:垄断运营商缺乏提供普遍服务的激励;在网络规模非对等下,引入电信竞争通常是社会低效率的;在位者提供瓶颈资源的接入定价是社会低效率的,可以采用基于机会成本的有效元素定价对接入服务予以规制。     

Underpricing,Share Overhang,and Insider Selling in Follow‐on Offerings

Prospect and information‐momentum theories predict that insiders can offer fewer shares in an initial public offering (IPO) to create informational momentum and obtain higher prices in follow‐on offerings. I find that dilution and insider participation in the IPO are negatively related to the number and size of follow‐on offerings, consistent with the prediction. However, insider selling in follow‐on offerings is positively related to IPO selling, contrary to the theories. Returns around follow‐on offering announcements are more negative for newly public firms than older firms, but for newly public firms do not differ by whether the announcement comes before or after the lockup expiration date.     

Child labor and agricultural shocks

This paper examines the relationship between household income shocks and child labor. In particular, we investigate the extent to which transitory income shocks lead to increases in child labor and whether household asset holdings mitigate the effects of these shocks. Using data from a household panel survey in Tanzania, we find that both relationships are significant. We investigate mechanisms that could account for these results, including buffer stocks and borrowing.