固网运营商的3G发展策略

3G,是英文3rd Generation的缩写,指第三代移动通信技术,相对第一代模拟制式移动通信(1G)和第二代GSM、CDMA等数字移动通信(2G) ,第三代移动通信一般地讲,是指将无线通信与国际互联网等多媒体通信结合的新一代移动通信系统。在中国本土通信市场上, 3G作为下一代商用的移动通信技术越来越近。3G对原有的固网运营商和移动运营商的未来发展的重要性以及对现实业务的冲击,都让运营商不得不高度重视3G市场,并投入大量的精力研究自身的3G发展策略。本文从目前的固网运营商及移动运营商各自的优势,对3G业务、用户市场的粗浅分析中,力求得出固网运营商可能的3G发展策略。     

Testing separability of public consumption in household decisions

In this paper we propose a sequential strategy, based on the microeconomic approach of the demand theory, in order to test for separability between private and public consumption. The aim of the present work is to verify, using a conditional almost ideal demand system, whether the different components of public consumption exert conditioning effects on the allocative structure of private spending. The empirical estimation of the model and the separability tests are developed for both a demand system in five functional categories of private spending, and for a demand system in six categories, where the private expenditures on those goods and services which can also be offered by the public sector are enclosed in a single functional category. The results of the separability tests, obtained using UK data for the 1974–2000 period, show that public individual consumption plays an important role in modifying consumer choices, while public collective consumption does not affect private consumption behaviours. The relationships between the different components of private spending and public individual consumption are both of substitutability and complementarity; in particular, we find that public individual consumption and the corresponding private expenditures on ‘Health, education, recreation and social protection’ are complements.     

从"10+3"看东亚区域经济合作的方式

东亚区域合作面临许多难题，贯穿“东盟方式”的“10 3”合作是东亚目前的主导形式，但这一合作的诸多缺憾使东亚区域合作很难沿这一方向深入下去。2002年初，小泉纯一郎在新加坡描述了一个称为“东亚共同体”的设想，实际是鼓吹以双边自由贸易协定网而非区域经济一体化的方式来实现东亚的区域合作。的确，双边自由贸易协定网的方式不但符合东盟强调自立的合作原则，也迎合了外部特别是美国在这一地区的利益，易为各方接受，却从根本上堵住了东亚通往更具机制化合作的道路。笔者认为东亚区域合作的必然选择是大国协调为基础的区域经济一体化，这虽然需要一个艰难的调整过程，但却是在全球化条件下保障东亚各国利益的惟一选择。     

Stock prices,production and interest rates: Comparison of three European countries with the USA

This paper investigates the relationships between stock returns, changes in production, and changes in interest rates in three European countries: France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The results obtained using annual data are much more conclusive than those obtained using quarterly data. Stock returns are affected by current changes in interest rates and by future changes in production. The dependence on changes in interest rates seems to be higher than on changes in production. Furthermore, the influence of future changes in production on stock returns diminishes substantially when contemporaneous changes in interest rates are taken into account. With reference to these points, the European markets behave in a similar fashion, but are in sharp contrast with the U.S. market.I am very grateful to Kay Davidson, Patric Hendershott and two anonymous referees for useful comments and suggestions. I am solely responsible for all remaining errors.     

"10+3"成员国直接税协调的研究

本文介绍了“1O 3” 合作机制的特点、成员国税制和直接税的概况。文中指出,“10 3”成员国政府应高度重视国内税收政策协调问题;尽早建立非官方的税收研究委员会,对各成员国国内税收政策协调问题进行研究;并对企业所得税和个人所得税政策的协调提出建议。     

Incorporating Collateral Value Uncertainty in Loss Given Default Estimates and Loan-to-value Ratios

We present a model of risky debt in which collateral value is correlated with the possibility of default. The model is then used to study the expected loss given default, primarily as a function of collateral. The results obtained could prove useful for estimating losses given default in many popular models of credit risk which assume them constant. We also examine the problem of determining sufficient collateral to secure a loan to a desired extent. In addition to bank practitioners, regulators might find our analysis useful in reviewing banks’ lending standards relative to current collateral values. In particular, the current proposals for The New (Basel) Capital Accord involve options for the use of banks’ own loss given default estimates which might benefit from the analysis in this paper.     

Competition For Order Flow, Market Quality, And Price Discovery In The Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock

We investigate competition for order flow, market quality, and price discovery in the Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQ). The QQQ, an AMEX‐listed, exchange‐traded fund, is the most actively traded security in the U.S. equities market. On July 31, 2001, the NYSE began trading the QQQ, marking the first time it traded securities of companies it does not list. The greatest volume of trading takes place on electronic communication networks (ECNs), following by trading on the AMEX and the NYSE. Most of the block trades are executed on the AMEX, where the bid‐ask spreads are narrower. We find that ECNs contribute the most to the price‐discovery process. The spreads on all trading platforms have decreased and market quality and price discovery have improved since QQQ shares have traded on the NYSE.     

Option pricing in the presence of natural boundaries and a quadratic diffusion term

This paper uses a probabilistic change-of-numeraire technique to compute closed-form prices of European options to exchange one asset against another when the relative price of the underlying assets follows a diffusion process with natural boundaries and a quadratic diffusion coefficient. The paper shows in particular how to interpret the option price formula in terms of exercise probabilities which are calculated under the martingale measures associated with two specific numeraire portfolios. An application to the pricing of bond options and certain interest rate derivatives illustrates the main results.     

Post Bretton Woods deviations from purchasing power parity in G7 exchange rates—an empirical exploration

Exchange rates have deviated substantially and idiosyncratically from purchasing power parity (PPP) since the breakdown of Bretton Woods. In this paper, a model incorporating both traditional PPP and financial market variables is constructed and tested on the US dollar's six G7 exchange rates during the floating rate era. Empirical tests show that the model's common set of variables—with consistent signs—can explain the divergent behavior of G7 exchange rates during 1973.2–90.2. Idiosyncracies are reflected in different subsets of the model's variables entering significantly into each exchange rate's regression; the existence of stable relationships is demonstrated by the equations' co-integration.     

Long term dependence in stock returns

We show, using the modified rescaled range statistic, that none of the return series of indices of five European countries, the United States and Japan exhibits long term dependence. This statistic — introduced by Lo (1991) — correct Hurst's (1951) ‘classical’ rescaled range statistic for short term dependence. We also report the classical rescaled range statistic after adjusting the series for short term dependence. This procedure shows, for cases where the results of the modified rescaled range statistic are mixed, that no long term dependence can be found. Simulations indicate reasonable power of this adjustment procedure. Furthermore, we find that estimates of the Hurst exponent, a related measure of long term dependence, are also biased by short term dependence. Simulations show that this measure — that has recently attracted growing interest — cannot distinguish between models with or without long term dependence.