国民经济健康发展的标志——绿色GDP

GDP代表着目前世界通行的国民经济核算体系,作为核心标准,GDP成为衡量一个国家发展程度的统一标准。建立绿色GDP核算体系,以绿色GDP为主导,不仅仅是对破坏性开发的限制,更是建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会的必然选择。在科学发展观的统领之下,从根本上将以粗放型、传统型为主的发展模式,转化为集约型、生态型、低能耗的循环发展模式,在创新“集群经济、循环经济、知识经济”基础上,构建全面、协调、可持续发展的绿色经济和新型工业化的发展道路,将为经济发展展示一条新的可持续发展的坦途。     

我国M_2/GDP的动态增长路径、货币供应量与政策选择

本文试图求解我国M2/GDP的动态增长路径,并对与此相关的金融政策选择进行分析。研究发现,我国M2/GDP的变动路径具有Logistic曲线的基本形状,将经历先加速上升后增长速度逐渐减缓,最终趋于稳定状态的变化过程。本文估算了我国M2/GDP的增长上限及其变化拐点。研究还发现,M2/GDP的上升并不必然意味着通胀压力加大,只有M2/GDP偏离动态增长路径时,才会对通货膨胀产生影响。据此本文估算了2005年货币供应量的合理区间。本文认为,应继续实施稳健货币政策,合理确定货币总量增长速度,继续推进体制性改革等措施确保经济金融的稳定运行。     

中国实施绿色GDP的困难与对策

为克服现行GD核P算体系的局限性,作为替代方案之一的绿色GD具P有相应的优势。本文从绿色GD的P内涵、面临的困难、国内外的理论与实践等角度进行了分析,并提出了相应对策。     

基于BP神经网络的我国M2/GDP预测与对策

本文计算了1993年至2005年我国M2/GDP,发现该数据总体呈上升趋势,这一定程度上反映了我国体制上的深层次问题。另外,本文运用带有动量项和自适应学习率的BP神经网络方法预测出我国2006年的M2/GDP是1.6386左右,并提出了一些相应的政策建议。     

中国城市化对GDP影响研究

随着中国经济的发展，中国的城市化规模日益扩展，进程不断深入，但对GDP增长的积极影响不明显。为此，一是要积极提高全民族的文化水平，特别是对要继续提高受高等教育人口在总人口中的比重，使之与城市化水平高的发达国家相接轨；二是要在产业规模方面，除了要积极发展第三产业之外，应该特别注意调整地区之间的产业结构，减少重复建设，真正实现区域之间的优势互补，相互促进；三是要注意防止过多的人口成为大城市发展的负担。     

股指与GDP背离的多重解析

中国股市先天带有制度性缺陷，目前正处于一个非常特殊的转折期、转轨期。近一年来的股市连续下挫、股指背离GDP，正是这个特殊时期的必然现象。对此可以从三个方面予以详细解析。     

我国税种结构与宏观税负的相关分析

合理的宏观税负，不仅是社会经济资源科学分配的重要因素，也是政府职能发挥作用的重要前提。通过对我国税种结构与宏观税负的相关分析，我国应采取积极措施，确保各税种收入不断上升，使其与GDP同步增长。这样才能充分发挥税收调控宏观经济的作用。     

绿色GDP核算研究的误区及其澄清

我国在绿色GDP核算研究中存在着将实际环保费用作为“重复计算因素”从现行GDP中扣除的误区。无论从核算技术的角度上,还是从经济模型的推导上,都证明在绿色GDP核算中不应扣除实际的环保费用,而应扣除的是“潜在的”环保费用。     

A Multiple and Partial Wavelet Analysis of the Oil Price,Inflation, Exchange Rate,and Economic Growth Nexus in Saudi Arabia

This article provides a fresh insight into the dynamic nexus between oil prices, the Saudi/US dollar exchange rate, inflation, and output growth rate in Saudi Arabia’ economy, using novel Morlet’ wavelet methods. Specifically, it implements various tools of methodology: the continuous wavelet power spectrum, the cross-wavelet power spectrum, the wavelet coherency, the multiple and the partial wavelet coherence to the annual sample period 1969–2014. Our results unveil that the relationships among the variables evolve through time and frequency. From the time-domain view, we show strong but non-homogenous linkages between the four variables. From the frequency-domain view, we uncover significant wavelet coherences and strong lead-lag relationships. From an economic view, the wavelet analysis shows that Saudi economy is still exposed to several global risk factors, which are mainly related to the oil market volatility, and the pegging of the local currency to the US dollar. Such risk factors strongly and negatively affect the real economic growth, exert more pressure on inflation, and substantially limit the freedom to pursue an independent monetary policy.     

Financial crisis,GDP variation and earnings management in Europe

The purpose of this study is to examine the consequences of the financial crisis on the European companies’ in conjunction with earnings management practice. It focuses on financially distressed companies that audited by a big 4 auditor during recession years. The study makes use of discretionary accruals as a proxy for earnings management and studies the influence of big 4 auditor, in order to shed more light on possible causes for shifting earnings. The findings of the study provide evidence that financially distressed companies that audited by a big 4 auditor exhibit lower discretionary accruals. The results reveal that Greek and Spanish companies reduce earnings management manipulation during recession. In contrast, Portuguese, Irish and Italian companies show mixed results. They tend to reduce earnings management practices, but there are reasons that influence managers’ behavior to increase earnings management. The findings of this study can be useful for both investors and standard setting authorities.