基于灰色关联度分析的云南省经济林产业发展研究

以云南省经济林发展策略为研究目标,运用灰色关联度分析方法,分析近十年的数据,对经济林产业的发展现状进行实证研究。分析发现,尽管云南省林业资源较其他地区相对丰富,但是林业产业发展却不尽如人意。云南省经济林产业中的果类产业、橡胶业比较发达,但其竞争优势受到内部劣势的影响很难长期保持。提出了改善云南经济林产业,带动当地经济发展的对策建议。     

新财税政策下的职工基本养老保险最优缴费率测算研究

企业职工基本养老保险缴费率作为养老保险制度的关键性要素,受到专家学者的普遍关注,企业缴费率高、缴费压力大已成为制约企业发展的重要因素。本文综合运用灰色关联、因子分析与回归、动态调整和模拟预测的方法,构建企业基本养老保险缴费率适度水平的因子测算模型,以上海市2008—2019年的数据作为样本进行测算与预测。结果显示:缴费率的适度水平处于19%～23%;增加国有资产划转10%补充社保基金以及中央调剂金制度等参数后,模拟预测2018—2025年的缴费率适度水平在14.8%～18.6%之间,说明企业职工基本养老保险的缴费率有进一步下降的空间。     

Building resilience for sustainability of MSMEs post COVID-19 outbreak: An Indian handicraft industry outlook

The handicraft business constitutes concept selling rather than mere product selling, which is highly dependent on demand. Handicrafts' Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) have an expanding market in developed countries. The impact of the pandemic on this industry is severe due to the industry's informal nature and seasonal demand. The survival and resilience of these handicraft MSMEs face many challenges in the post-COVID-19 outbreak. The focus of the present study is to understand and analyze the key challenges for building resilience in handicraft MSMEs by scrutinizing the existing literature and interactions with stakeholders. EFA and the Grey DEMATEL approach are used to analyze the challenges for the adoption of resilience. EFA is used to categorize the challenges into various dimensions. The study has divided the challenges for the inclusion of resilience into survivable, sustainable, and viable categories using EFA to plan for short- and long-term business growth. Grey DEMATEL is being utilized for understanding these contextual relationships for each resilience dimension. Grey systems theory is a methodology that enables the incorporation of improbability and vagueness into the analysis. Findings of the study revealed the influencing challenges for each of the dimensions such as competition from machine-made products, insufficient government support and incentives for export, and inefficient managerial concern and response to internationalization as the prominent challenges. The results of this study illustrate the causal relationships amongst the identified resilience challenges to the various stakeholders. These findings offer practical insights for the government to allocate resources and impose measures to ensure resilience, as well as understanding the cause-effect relationship. Managerial implications and Policy insights for building the resilience of handicraft MSMEs are discussed in detail.     

基于改进的GM_Markon模型对北京创意产业发展的预测

创意产业产值受周边环境因素影响较大，在某些年份甚至出现局部较大畸变，通过相关文献学习，首先通过对灰色模型预测，然后经过残差修正增加模型规律性（采用两次残差累加），最后在残差修正灰色模型基础上应用改进的马尔科夫链提高预测精度，对2005-2014年北京创意产业产值数据验证算法有效性进行研究。此算法优点在于弥补灰色模型数据少，随机性大的缺陷，很好修正畸变数据和提高拟合度。