农村金融资源分配扭曲的现象与对策——基于兰州市榆中县、永登县、皋兰县的数据分析

本文调查了兰州市榆中县、永登县、皋兰县的农村金融情况,发现在信息不对称和缺乏合规抵押物的情况下,农村信贷资源的分配存在着向高收入农民集中的情况。最需要得到信贷资源的中低收入农民却难以获得正规农村金融机构的信贷支持,转而求助于民间金融;对信贷需求不那么迫切的高收入农民却成为农村金融机构争抢的优质客户资源,造成农村金融市场供给和需求的脱节。本文认为要解决农村信贷资源分配扭曲的问题就必须降低农村金融的门槛、打破农村金融的垄断和给予民间金融以合法地位,并且建立一套惠农政策提高农民收入,改善农村金融的服务基础。     

中国农村金融发展对城乡收入差距的影响--基于1978-2004年数据的检验

大多数研究表明,改革开放以来,中国整体金融发展显著扩大了城乡收入差距,同时,它们从城乡金融发展不平衡角度进行了理论阐释。本文则从农村自身经济发展层面出发运用1978-2004年的相关数据分析了农村金融发展与城乡收入差距之间的关系,结果显示:农村金融发展扩大了城乡收入差距,究其原因主要是农村资金的不断外流和非正规金融的不规范发展,加剧了城乡收入差距的扩大。现实的出路是遏制农村资金外流,提供更多的农村正规金融资源;规范非正规金融发展,防范农村金融风险。     

Financial factors and firm growth: evidence from financial data on Taiwanese firms

We investigate the possible predictability of firm growth in Taiwan using cross-sectional data of financial factors for the years 1997 and 2003 via principal component analysis. Our results reveal that the 18 financial variables (sales growth rate, total assets, total sales, return on assets, return on equity, gross margin, operating cost minus depreciation divided by sales plus other trading income, acid test ratio, debt–equity ratio, time interest earned, average receivables per average daily sales, inventory, average payables per average daily sales, working capital, working capital as a fraction of total assets, long-term liabilities as a fraction of total assets, and sales as a fraction of net worth of the firm) that we employ bunch together into five different financial ratios for the years 1997 and 2003 that are stable between these years. These financial factors are short-term liquidity, return on investment, long-term liquidity, firm size and capital turnover. Regressing these ratio groups (extracted principal components) on firm growth, we find return on investment in the year 1997 was positively and significantly related to firm growth, while long-term solvency was negatively related to firm growth. In addition, smaller firms tended to grow faster. By 2003, larger firms grew faster than smaller ones and short-term liquidity was positively and significantly related to firm growth, while return on investment was no longer a significant determining factor. Our findings suggest that firms that finance internally or do not rely too heavily on indebtedness may end up growing slower during boom periods but they are the ones that survive and outperform after the bust.     

土地财政区域差异研究综述

[目的]进一步揭示土地财政已存在的区域差异规律,为构建更为科学、切实可行的政策建议,推动"征地→批租"地方政府土地财政模式转型提供新的研究视角。[方法]文献资料方法和比较研究方法。[结果]现有研究证实了土地财政规模及依赖程度、财政收入激励下地方政府土地出让方式、土地财政推动经济增长、土地财政影响居民收入消费及公共品供给、土地财政与城市用地规模联动关系等方面,在全国范围内都存在东部、中部、西部的区域差异。国外保有环节的房地产税是地方政府持续的财政资金来源;同时,是促进房地产市场有序发展、抑制城市蔓延的有效政策工具。[结论]未来研究方向是以地市为单元,探明各类土地财政构成要素对于经济增长、居民收入与消费及产业服务化、城市公共品供给、城市各类用地规模增长的影响内在机理;构建区域差别化的保有环节房地产税征收管理政策方案。     

A multivariate distance nonlinear causality test based on partial distance correlation: a machine learning application to energy futures

This paper proposes a multivariate distance nonlinear causality test (MDNC) using the partial distance correlation in a time series framework. Partial distance correlation as an extension of the Brownian distance correlation calculates the distance correlation between random vectors X and Y controlling for a random vector Z. Our test can detect nonlinear lagged relationships between time series, and when integrated with machine learning methods it can improve the forecasting power. We apply our method as a feature selection procedure and combine it with the support vector machine and random forests algorithms to study the forecast of the main energy financial time series (oil, coal, and natural gas futures). It shows substantial improvement in forecasting the fuel energy time series in comparison to the classical Granger causality method in time series.     

农村非正规金融的发展与农户融资行为研究——基于温州农村地区的调查分析

非正规金融是指非法定的金融机构(即非正规金融部门)所提供的间接融资以及个人之间或个人与企业主之间的直接融资,其存在表明已构建的正规金融体系无法满足现实与潜在需求。本文通过对温州农户借贷行为的调查问卷分析发现,相对于正规金融而言,非正规金融更能满足不同收入等级农户多样化的资金需求。在比较分析了农户在正规金融机构和非正规金融市场的融资状况的基础上,进一步探讨非正规金融市场的运行机制,最后分析了影响农户选择资金来源的因素,并对促进农村地区金融业健康发展提出若干政策建议。     

浅析上市公司消耗性林木资产的会计信息披露

消耗性林木资产是林业经营主体的重要资产,消耗性林木资产的会计信息披露对于提高会计信息的质量以及促进资本市场的持续健康发展具有重要的意义。文章在阐述了会计信息披露相关理论的基础上,重点分析了2010年中国上市公司消耗性林木资产信息披露中存在的主要问题,即缺乏对经营风险的必要提示、有关郁闭度方面的信息披露不充分、成本结转方法披露过于随意、公允价值的披露主观性强等,并有针对性地提出了相应的完善建议,即应在完善消耗性林木资产表内信息披露的同时,强化会计报表附注和财务情况说明书的披露。     

目前住房金融业存在的问题与对策

住房金融在扩大市场有效需求、启动住房消费等方面具有重要的作用。本文对当前我国住房金融工作中存在的难点与问题进行了剖析 ,提出了相应的对策。     

我国农村金融风险的现状与对策

中国是一个具有典型“二元经济”特征的发展中农业大国,农村经济在国民经济中占有重要的地位,其发展离不开金融的有效支持。农村金融基于自身各种因素的影响,在我国农村金融领域也积聚了大量的风险因素,如果不对农村金融的风险进行及时有效地防范与化解,将会影响农村经济环境的稳定,从而危及到社会的稳定。本文结合我国农村经济与农村金融的实际,提出了一些控制我国农村金融风险的措施。