标准-普尔政府信用等级评价体系:分析与启示(续)

三、标准-普尔的政府信用等级评价体系的分析方法标准-普尔的政府信用等级评价体系有以下九类 指标. (一)政治风险分析 标准-普尔认为,一个国家(或地区)的政治制度的稳定性、可预测性和透明度,对于分析经济政策决策(包括怎样迅速识别和纠正政策错误)是需要考虑的重要参数。这其中包括国内政治的对抗性程度,政府更迭的频繁程度,以及公共安全事务。对与周边国家的关系,标准-普尔则是从潜在的安全风险的角度     

上市公司的信用行为及其市场反应

以1993—2012年在上海证券交易所和深圳证券交易所主板市场交易的所有非金融企业为样本,对公司的信用行为及其市场反应进行实证研究。结果发现:公司信用行为深受宏观经济政策的影响;商业信用的供给和需求与短期银行信用、长期银行信用显著负相关;商业信用需求与商业信用供给显著正相关;公司价值与商业信用供给显著正相关,与商业信用需求显著负相关,与短期银行信用需求和长期银行信用需求显著负相关;此外,宏观经济周期、企业的经济性质、公司规模、资本结构、成长性等因素对公司的信用行为和公司价值具有显著影响。     

融资约束对创新持续性的影响研究——基于创新开放度的调节效应

企业如何缓解融资难并实现可持续性创新发展是当前亟待解决的问题。本文基于信息不对称理论与开放式创新理论,以2015-2019年我国高新技术企业为研究对象,探讨融资约束、创新开放度与企业创新持续性之间的关系。研究发现:外源融资约束和内源融资约束均对企业创新持续性产生负向影响;创新开放度对外源融资约束与企业创新持续性之间的关系具有负向调节作用,但对内源融资约束与企业创新持续性之间的关系不具有调节作用;处于不同生命周期阶段的企业,内外源融资约束对企业创新持续性的影响存在异质性,创新开放度的调节作用也存在差异。     

机构持股如何影响农业企业绩效?

研究机构持股对农业企业绩效的影响机制,对深化农业企业股权改革、提高农业企业联农带农能力、赋能乡村振兴具有重要意义。本文以上海和深圳证券交易所2007-2020年农业上市企业为研究对象,研究机构持股对农业企业绩效的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,机构持股能有效促进农业企业绩效,该结论在经过系列稳健性检验,并考虑内生性后依然成立。进一步研究表明,机构持股可通过缓解内部控制缺陷和融资约束提升农业企业绩效,并且机构持股对国有农业企业与制造业门类下农业企业绩效的提升效果更为显著。为此,应完善机构投资环境,鼓励机构投资者加大对农业企业投资力度,缓解农业企业资金约束,提高农业企业治理水平,从而促进农业企业做大做强。     

国有和民营企业信贷融资差异研究-—基于上市公司的实证分析

基于沪深交易所上市公司的财务数据分析表明,我国国有企业的融资环境要优于民营企业的融资环境。民营企业不但因自身存在较多的问题,也因银行金融机构的信贷政策差异,导致外部融资极其困难。国有及民营企业融资影响因素的实证分析表明,国有企业不仅在获取银行贷款上具有先天优势,更容易获得中长期贷款。企业获取信贷的能力与企业本身的固定资产实力、盈利能力、资产负债率、资产规模、企业性质等因素有显著的影响关系,国有企业融资不仅在投资上挤占了民营企业的投资,也影响了我国居民的整体消费水平,进而不利于我国经济持续稳定的发展。     

Internet,consumer spending,and credit card balance: Evidence from US consumers

Utilizing the 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances data, the present study aims to examine the role of the Internet in carrying a credit card balance among US households. The central question of this study is whether or not households with Internet access have more favorable attitudes toward incurring more credit card balance. This study further investigates whether education, income, gender, age, race, etc., make any differences in carrying credit card debt when households have access to the Internet. Our results with the Tobit model show that having access to the Internet increases the probability of carrying a positive credit card balance by 4% to 5% compared to those who do not have access to the Internet. This result does not apply to older Americans. Our results further indicate that education decreases the probability of carrying a positive credit balance for households that have access to the Internet, while income and liquid assets may have little positive effect on that probability. The results suggest that Internet leads to more debt, but education could alleviate that debt.     

Can mergers ensure the survival of credit unions in the third millennium?

The survival of small financial institutions in the third millennium depends on their competitiveness against large bank rivals. Accordingly, credit unions in Australia and the United States have attempted to increase efficiency through mergers. Our paper uses the data envelopment analysis methodology to evaluate the post-merger gains in technical and scale efficiency achieved by 31 Australian credit union mergers in 1993/1994 and 1994/1995, relative to non-merging credit unions. When compared with the only US study of credit union mergers [Journal of Banking & Finance 23 (1999) 367–386], our findings suggests that mergers are not associated with improvements in efficiency superior to those achieved by internal growth.     

The Information Content of Ratings: An Analysis of Australian Credit Default Swap Spreads

We examine the information content of Australian credit rating announcements by measuring the abnormal changes in credit default swap (CDS) spreads. CDS spreads provide a direct view of credit quality and thus should impound information quickly when investors receive new credit risk related information via a rating event. Using an event study methodology, we show that watch downs and rating upgrades contain valuable information even after controlling for sources of contamination. We find that watch downs elicit statistically significant market reactions, while subsequent downgrades are anticipated. Upgrades are associated with a significant but small abnormal reduction in CDS spreads, whereas watch ups appear to contain no new information.     

基于变异系数法的征信管理绩效评价研究

本文从内部控制、企业征信建设、个人征信建设等七个方面建立征信管理绩效评价指标体系,运用变异系数法对北海市中心支行征信管理部门三年的绩效情况进行了分析评价,旨在进一步提升征信管理部门的履职服务水平。     

贵州省两种农户信用评价体系的比较研究

目前贵州省有两种模式推进农户信用评价体系建设：一种是农村信用社根据其业务需要推动建立的农信社模式;另一种是兴仁模式,由人民银行为主导搭建所有涉农金融机构可以共享的平台,多方参与,并且增强政府社会管理功能。本文在兴仁县随机抽取100位农户作为样本,通过两配对样本T检验方法,验证结果显示,样本农户在两种模式下的信用评价结果相似,兴仁模式是适用于涉农金融机构进行风险控制的统一模式。