A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises

This paper presents a general equilibrium currency crisis model of the ‘third generation’, in which the possibility of currency crises is driven by the interplay between private firms’ credit-constraints and nominal price rigidities. Despite our emphasis on microfoundations, the model remains sufficiently simple that the policy analysis can be conducted graphically. The analysis hinges on four main features (i) ex post deviations from purchasing power parity; (ii) credit constraints a la Bernanke-Gertler; (iii) foreign currency borrowing by domestic firms; (iv) a competitive banking sector lending to firms and holding reserves and a monetary policy conducted either through open market operations or short-term lending facilities. We derive sufficient conditions for the existence of a sunspot equilibrium with currency crises. We show that an interest rate increase intended to support the currency in a crisis may not be effective, but that a relaxation of short-term lending facilities can make this policy effective by attenuating the rise in interest rates relevant to firms.     

基于3T理论的城市创意产业发展路径研究

我国城市化进程中出现的城市制造能力和创造能力的严重不匹配,致使一些城市经济发展处于产业链的低端。近20年来,西方城市大力推进创意产业这一新经济战略概念,其成果证明文化创意与城市经济发展关系密切。研究创意产业的3T理论,并结合我国城市发展的实际情况,试图打破城市对于传统发展模式的路径依赖,为我国城市创意产业经济的可持续发展提供现实的路径选择。     

The α-beauty contest: Choosing numbers, thinking intervals

We present a model for the α-beauty contest that explains common patterns in experimental data of one-shot and iterative games. The approach is based on two basic assumptions. First, players iteratively update their recent guesses. Second, players estimate intervals rather than exact numbers to cope with incomplete knowledge of other players' rationality. Under these assumptions we extend the cognitive hierarchy model of Camerer et al. [Camerer, C., Ho, T., Chong, J., 2003b. A cognitive hierarchy model of one-shot games. Quart. J. Econ. 119, 861–898]. The extended model is estimated on experimental data from a newspaper experiment.     

Income comparison and happiness: The role of fair income distribution

Relative income gap is one of the most popular approaches for explaining the income–happiness relationship. We argue in this article that when people compare their incomes, they care about distributional fairness more than relative income disparity. It is difficult for us to explain China's income–happiness paradox if we simply compare the income gap and do not explore the income‐generation process leading to income inequality. We therefore employ an approach based on a responsibility‐sensitive theory of justice that decomposes individual income into fair and unfair components. As a proxy for distributional unfairness, unfair income is considered the main source of unhappiness. Using data from the Chinese Household Income Project survey, we find strong support for the negative relationship between income unfairness and happiness. We also find a significantly positive relationship between the relative income gap and income unfairness, which leads us to consider the income comparison hypothesis as the explanation for the income–happiness paradox in a new light. Sensitivity analyses confirm the robustness of our results.     

中国粮食生产空间布局变迁实证

中国的粮食生产空间布局区域特征明显,了解中国粮食生产空间布局变化特征及影响因素对于制定合理的粮食生产政策具有重要意义,文章运用空间计量经济学Moran I指数及Panel Data模型,分析了中国31个省级区域粮食生产空间布局特征及其影响因素.     

大型水电站工程设计项目生产管理系统研究

针对水电站设计项目的知识性和复杂性,基于一种P3E/C的大型水电站设计项目生产管理系统实现模式,设计了系统运行的网络结构和系统运行平台。通过系统实现的动态矩阵网络图、项目工序表流转、项目产品安全3个关键技术的解决方法,提出了基于P3E/C的项目计划管理、作业过程管理、作业人员绩效管理3个核心子系统的实现方法。     

险资股权投资的结构性改革研究——基于险资投资的倒U型效应分析

保险资金作为重要的机构投资者能否发挥促进公司绩效提升的作用在已有研究和监管政策制定上都存在较大争议。本文以2005-2017年A股上市公司为研究样本,发现险资持股比例对上市公司绩效以及估值影响存在显著的倒U型曲线效应,相应机制研究表明险资持股通过显著影响两类代理成本的渠道发挥治理作用。在适度持股比例以下,险资增持能够降低被投资公司管理费用率和其他应收款占比,并提高资产周转率,从而降低两类代理成本;持股超过一定比例反而造成两类代理成本上升。险资持股比例变化对保险机构调研次数的影响则从公司治理参与角度印证了以上结论。对倒U型曲线效应的深入分析既有助于深化对机构投资者影响公司绩效的多重效应和机制的认识,同时为在金融机构层面落实金融供给侧结构性改革、增强险资服务实体经济能力提供参考。     

THE IMPACT OF GREATER AUTONOMY ON EFFICIENCY OF WORK AND QUALITY OF SERVICES IN PUBLIC SERVICE PROVIDERS: A CASE OF VOCATIONAL EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS

ABSTRACT: The paper analyses impact of greater autonomy on efficiency of work and quality of services in public service institutions. Autonomy is one of the key principles of New Public Management that, according to the theory, increases performance in public service providers. However this assumption has been scarcely researched in practice. To narrow this gap, the experimental reform that implemented greater managerial and financial autonomy in 13 Lithuanian state vocational schools was chosen for research. In order to analyse the impact of autonomy after the reform, maximally similar institutions (those that underwent the reform and that did not) are compared using quantitative (incl. counterfactual analysis) and qualitative methods. The results indicate that institutions that have been reformed tend to have better efficiency and quality of services, even though this relationship is not causal. Moreover, the research challenges the notion that such results came from greater autonomy. Finally, the logic of the NPM of as to why more autonomous institutions perform better is also challenged.     

MAINTAINING MARKET POSITION: TEAM PERFORMANCE,REVENUE AND WAGE EXPENDITURE IN THE ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

This paper investigates the relationship between playing success and commercial success in team sports. Utilizing a data set relating to the English Premier League that combines both financial measures and indicators of playing skills and performances, our empirical analysis is based on three behavioural equations. Our analysis indicates that on‐field success can be directly related to players’ skills and abilities and that revenue is positively related to on‐field success. Wage expenditure is also shown to systematically reflect player skills and performances. One interpretation of this evidence is that investment in players’ skills and ability buys on‐field success, with richer teams becoming ever richer and able to maintain or even build upon success by spending more on players than less successful clubs. To the extent that richer clubs are successful in their objective there is a causal link between revenue earned and competitive imbalance via investments in players. The implications of this tendency within a league are discussed in our conclusion, which also considers the potentially wider implications of our study as they relate to the evolution of firm size and issues of market share.