Measuring business cycle comovements in Europe: Evidence from a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters

Estimation results from a dynamic factor model confirm an increase in output synchronization across European countries during the run-up to the inception of EMU, but EMU by itself has not continued to foster the emergence of a common business cycle.     

Currency crisis transmission through international trade

The Eurozone recent crisis has shown how balance of payments problems in less developed European Monetary Union (EMU) member countries can affect EMU trading partners, spreading the crisis to a larger group of countries. This paper introduces a three-country dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze whether and how terms of trade effects can generate a spillover effect or a currency crisis transmission between countries. Specifically, using a two period model, it incorporates world market clearing conditions for tradables into a new theoretic model, analyzes net capital flow movements between countries, and establishes cross-border macroeconomic linkages. This paper shows how a currency crisis can transmit through the real (trade) sector channel of the economy.     

Natural resource extraction and civil conflict

Based on evidence linking natural resources to civil conflict, this paper studies two armed groups fighting to control a resource and possibly a second prize. Labor is used in the agricultural, resource extraction and conflict sectors, and the groups also buy a capital input to conflict subject to the constraint that capital spending cannot exceed resource earnings. I find that exogenous shocks can have different effects on conflict intensity depending on whether the credit constraint binds. In particular, international policies to ban natural resource exports from conflict zones (e.g. ‘blood diamonds’), raise agricultural productivity or limit the import of weapons will limit conflict intensity if the credit constraint binds. However, if the credit constraint does not bind, then the first two policies promote conflict, and so could even the third policy. The results therefore suggest some caution in international policymaking.     

Schooling,educational achievement,and the Latin American growth puzzle

Latin American economic development has been perceived as a puzzle. The region has trailed most other world regions over the past half century despite relatively high initial development and school attainment levels. This puzzle, however, can be resolved by considering educational achievement, a direct measure of human capital. We introduce a new, more inclusive achievement measure that comes from splicing regional achievement tests into worldwide tests. In growth regressions, the positive growth effect of educational achievement fully accounts for the poor growth performance of Latin American countries. These results are confirmed in a number of instrumental-variable specifications that exploit plausibly exogenous achievement variation stemming from historical and institutional determinants of educational achievement. Finally, a development accounting analysis finds that, once educational achievement is included, human capital can account for between half and two thirds of the income differences between Latin America and the rest of the world.     

An aspect of variable population poverty comparisons

This paper demonstrates that the property of Replication Invariance, generally considered to be an innocuous requirement for the extension of fixed-population poverty comparisons to variable-population contexts, is incompatible with other plausible variable- and fixed-population axioms. This fact raises questions about what constitutes an appropriate headcount assessment of poverty, in terms of whether one should focus on the proportion, or the absolute numbers, of the population in poverty. This observation, in turn, has important implications for tracking poverty and setting targets for its reduction or elimination.     

超顺磁性Fe3O4@Au核/壳纳米粒子的合成和特性

通过还原Au3＋到超顺磁性Fe3O4纳米粒子的表面,成功制备了具有超顺磁性的Fe3O4@Au核壳粒子。经透射电子显微镜（TEM）、X射线粉末衍射仪（XRD）、紫外可见分光光度计（UV-vis）、振动样品磁强计（VSM）和共焦显微拉曼仪对粒子进行表征,得到了具有核壳结构粒子,且表面被金壳覆盖。再以苯硫酚为探针分子,结果表明,磁性核壳结构的粒子显示出了优越的表面增强拉曼效应,这为超顺磁性的粒子在生物医学方面的应用创造了条件。     

Disability Costs and Equivalence Scales in the Older Population in Great Britain

We use a standard of living (SoL) approach to estimate older people's disability costs, using data on 8000 individuals from the U.K. Family Resources Survey. We extend previous research in two ways. First, by allowing for a more flexible relationship between SoL and income, the structure of the estimated disability cost and equivalence scale is not dictated by a restrictive functional form assumption. Second, we allow for the latent nature of disability and SoL, addressing measurement error in the disability and SoL indicators in surveys. We find that disability costs are strongly related to severity of disability, and vary with income in absolute and proportionate terms. Older people above the median disability level require an extra £99 per week (2007 prices) on average to reach the SoL of an otherwise similar person at the median. Costs faced by older people in the highest decile of disability average £180.     

数字经济对产业结构升级的影响研究——基于创新产出角度的分析

作为经济增长新动能,数字经济已经成为推进共同富裕的重要力量。文章采用熵值法和耦合协调度模型结合莫兰指数模型,构建数字经济−共同富裕评估指标体系,对我国30个省份2013—2021年数字经济与共同富裕的耦合协调机理及时空动态演进展开实证研究。研究显示：（1）我国数字经济与共同富裕发展水平总体上稳步增长,且东部＞中部＞东北＞西部地区;（2）我国数字经济与共同富裕耦合协调水平呈现中部地区高度耦合、其他地区为“拮抗−磨合−高水平耦合”的上升趋势;（3）数字经济与共同富裕耦合协调度在空间上存在正相关演进趋势,表现为“高高”和“低低”的空间集聚分布特征。为发展数字经济以推动共同富裕目标的实现,政府要加强数字化基础设施建设和数字技术培训、促进传统产业转型升级、优化资源配置等。

     

What the Welfare State Left Behind—Securing the Capability to Move for the Vulnerable

The purpose of the present paper is to measure the disadvantage of the vulnerable in contemporary Japan, focusing on their capabilities in moving both outside and inside the home. Our research interest is to find a new informational base other than consumption expenditure, which provides a strong clue about how to assess the eligibility for social support. We examine theoretical methods to apply the capability approach empirically, extending existing multidimensional poverty measurements. We find that people with disabilities and nursing care users are significantly restricted in their capabilities. The elderly in general, whom we have used as a reference group, are also in a precarious situation.     

A review of tourism and climate change mitigation: The scales,scopes, stakeholders and strategies of carbon management

Tourism needs to reduce emissions in line with other economic sectors, if the international community's objective of staying global warming at 1.5°-2.0 °C is to be achieved. This will require the industry to half emissions to 2030, and to reach net-zero by mid-century. Mitigation requires consideration of four dimensions, the Scales, Scopes, Stakeholders and Strategies of carbon management. The paper provides a systematic review of these dimensions and their interrelationships, with a focus on emission inventory comprehensiveness; allocation principles at different scales; clearly defined responsibilities for decarbonization; and the identification of significant mitigation strategies. The paper concludes that without mitigation efforts, tourism will deplete 40% of the world's remaining carbon budget to 1.5 °C. Yet, the most powerful decarbonization measures face major corporate, political and technical barriers. Without worldwide policy efforts at the national scale to manage the sector's emissions, tourism will turn into one of the major drivers of climate change.