Solving the multi-country Real Business Cycle model using a perturbation method

This paper solves the multi-country RBC model described in den Haan et al. (this issue) and Juillard and Villemot (this issue), using a perturbation method. We explain how to apply first- and second-order versions of the gensys2.m algorithm to this model. The perturbation method is computationally cheap and can easily be applied to large models with possibly hundreds of state variables.     

Japanese government debt and sustainability of fiscal policy

We construct quarterly series of the revenues, expenditures, and debt outstanding for Japan from 1980 to 2010, and analyze the sustainability of the fiscal policy. We pursue three approaches to examine the sustainability. First, we calculate the minimum tax rate that stabilizes the debt to GDP ratio given the future government expenditures. Using 2010 as the base year, we find that the government revenue to GDP ratio must rise permanently to 40–47% (from the current 33%) to stabilize the debt to GDP ratio. Second, we estimate the response of the primary surplus when the debt to GDP ratio increases. We allow the relationship to fluctuate between two “regimes” using a Markov switching model. In both regimes, the primary surplus to GDP ratio fails to respond positively to debt, which suggests the process is explosive. Finally, we estimate a fiscal policy function and a monetary policy function with Markov switching. We find that the fiscal policy is “active” (the tax revenues do not rise when the debt increases) and the monetary policy is “passive” (the interest rate does not react to the inflation rate sufficiently) in both regimes. These results suggest that the current fiscal situation for the Japanese government is not sustainable.     

An Examination of Social Media Marketing in China: How do the Top 133 Hotel Brands Perform on the Top Four Chinese Social Media Sites?

The purpose of this study is to evaluate hotel companies’ social media marketing efforts using the “6Is” social media monitoring framework. More specifically, in this study we set out to understand how hotels disseminate information, engage with consumers, and distribute products through social media. We investigate the presence of the top 133 hotel brands in China on the top domestic Chinese social media sites in order to identify to what extent the hotel industry in China recognizes the potential of this marketing tool. The findings indicate that the majority of the hotels actively and consistently use the Sina Weibo and Wechat platforms for their social media marketing.     

6S管理在生产管理中的推行方法探析——小议"奥奇丽"推行6S活动

文章介绍了6S管理模式的产生背景、内涵,以及广西奥奇丽股份有限公司推行6S活动的情况.并就该公司推行6S活动的方法进行讨论.     

A fiscal theory of sovereign risk

Under certain monetary-fiscal regimes the risk of default and thus the emergence of sovereign risk premiums are inevitable. This paper argues that in this context even small differences in the specification of monetary policy can have enormous effects on the equilibrium behavior of default rates and risk premiums. Under some monetary policy rules studied, the conditional expectation of default rates and sovereign risk premiums are constant, so movements in these variables always arrive as a surprise. Under other monetary regimes considered, the equilibrium default rate and the sovereign risk premium are serially correlated and therefore forecastable. The paper also studies the consequences of delaying default. It characterizes environments under which procrastinating on default is counterproductive.     

Inflation and inequality

Cross-country evidence on inflation and income inequality suggests that they are positively related. This article explores the hypothesis that this correlation is the outcome of a distributional conflict underlying the determination of government policies. A political economy model is presented in which equilibrium inflation is positively related to the degree of inequality in income due to the relative vulnerability to inflation of low income households.     

设备改造提升PA6聚合装置经济技术水平的研究

针对目前国内尼龙6聚合装置国产设备存在的选型及能力问题进行改造,通过提高装置产能、降低消耗,全面提升装置经济技术水平。     

Market Concentration and Multifaceted Productive Efficiency

Developing the analytical framework of the decision making process of a possible entrant, a reduced form system equations model is estimated in order to examine the market concentration – productive efficiency relationship in an endogeneity context. Technical and scale efficiency estimates are obtained from an inter-industry stochastic production frontier using a panel dataset regarding the seven most energy intensive manufacturing industries in Greece over the period 1980–96. Several new versions of the concentration – efficiency relationship, may be derived from the alternatives of the entrant considering the possible conduct character of incumbents’ technical efficiency and excess capacity, which is depicted on their scale efficiency, on market concentration.     

Optimal monetary policy in a Phillips-curve world

In this paper, we study optimal monetary policy in a model that integrates the modern theory of unemployment with a liquidity model of monetary transmission. Two policy environments are considered: period-by-period optimization (time consistency) and full commitment (Ramsey allocation). When the economy is subject to productivity shocks, the optimal policy is pro-cyclical. We also characterize the long-term properties of monetary policy and show that with commitment the optimal inflation rate is inversely related to the bargaining power of workers. Both results find empirical support in the data.     

Simultaneous entry and welfare

I examine the welfare properties of free entry under conditions of simultaneous entry. Specifically, I consider the second-best problem of influencing the number of entrants while taking as given firm behavior upon entry. I consider two alternative models of simultaneous entry: grab-the-dollar entry and war-of-attrition entry. I show that, if entry costs are low, then the results from previous models of sequential entry are fairly robust to the possibility of simultaneous entry. If however entry costs are high, then the welfare effects of free entry depend delicately on the nature of the entry game being played.