Oil price and Gulf Corporation Council stock indices: New evidence from time-varying copula models

Using a time-varying GJR copula approach, we determine the conditional dependence of the GCC stock indices on oil price between 2007 and 2016. We show how to improve the forecasting accuracy of the co-movement of energy and stock prices in an equally weighted portfolio. Contrary to prior findings, we demonstrate that due to the different co-movements across the GCC stock indices, portfolios of oil assets and several GCC stocks are less likely to be affected by systemic risk. The different co-movements across several stock indices over time provide different entry and exit points for stock investors. This approach is in line with the ‘buy low/sell high’ adage.     

用6S管理注入仓储管理系统内涵推升仓储运营水准

6S管理已经成为企业管理的一项重要内容。文章针对仓储系统的6S管理的推广步骤、内容方向和推行6S管理要注意的问题,阐明6S管理在仓储系统中的应用,导出6S管理是市场竞争方向,是推升仓储管理营运水准的丰富内涵。     

谈奥迪A6 CAN总线原理与检修

文章主要介绍奥迪A6轿车上应用的CAN总线的特点、故障波形及其故障的排除。     

基于6σ的企业流程再造

文章分析了6σ和企业流程再造（BPR）的共性和一致性,指出6σ可为BPR提供规范化原则和标准化框架,可为BPR提供更加有效的步骤和工具。最后,对基于6σ的BPR具体实施问题作了探讨。     

Private Sector Influences on Monetary Policy in the United States

I examine the extent to which the Federal Reserve's monetary policy actions are correlated with the expressed wishes of private sector lobbying groups. I update and extend work by Havrilesky (1990, 1993) regarding the effect of signals from the banking industry through the Federal Advisory Council (FAC). I also construct a new database containing statements from non-financial interest groups. I find that monetary policy actions are correlated with signals from non-financial groups before 1979 but not after, and are correlated with signals from the FAC after 1979 but not before. I also find that the Fed's policy stance more closely matches the preferred stance of the banking industry after 1979.     

International evidence on fiscal solvency: Is fiscal policy “responsible”?

We conduct a cross-country empirical analysis of fiscal solvency based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium conditions. The results show evidence of fiscal solvency, in the form of a robust positive conditional response of the primary balance to changes in public debt, in panels for emerging and industrial economies and in a combined panel. Emerging economies show a stronger response and hence converge to lower mean debt-output ratios, as observed in the data. The results are weaker for countries with debt ratios exceeding panel means and medians. Hence, we can separate countries where fiscal solvency holds from those where it remains in doubt.     

Pricing options on scenario trees

We examine valuation procedures that can be applied to incorporate options in scenario-based portfolio optimization models. Stochastic programming models use discrete scenarios to represent the stochastic evolution of asset prices. At issue is the adoption of suitable procedures to price options on the basis of the postulated discrete distributions of asset prices so as to ensure internally consistent portfolio optimization models. We adapt and implement two methods to price European options in accordance with discrete distributions represented by scenario trees and assess their performance with numerical tests. We consider features of option prices that are observed in practice. We find that asymmetries and/or leptokurtic features in the distribution of the underlying materially affect option prices; we quantify the impact of higher moments (skewness and excess kurtosis) on option prices. We demonstrate through empirical tests using market prices of the S&P500 stock index and options on the index that the proposed procedures consistently approximate the observed prices of options under different market regimes, especially for deep out-of-the-money options.     

Economic Growth Evens Out Happiness: Evidence from Six Surveys

In spite of the great U‐turn that saw income inequality rise in Western countries in the 1980s, happiness inequality has fallen in countries that have experienced income growth (but not in those that did not). Modern growth has reduced the share of both the “very unhappy” and the “perfectly happy.” Lower happiness inequality is found both between and within countries, and between and within individuals. Our cross‐country regression results suggest that the extension of various public goods helps to explain this greater happiness homogeneity. This new stylized fact arguably comes as a bonus to the Easterlin paradox, offering a somewhat brighter perspective for developing countries.     

Wage Inequality and Wage Mobility in Europe

Using data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions, this paper investigates wage inequality and wage mobility in Europe. Decomposing inequality into within‐ and between‐group inequality, we analyze to what extent wage inequality and mobility can be explained by observable characteristics. Furthermore, we investigate which individual and household characteristics determine transitions within the wage distribution. We find that overall, mobility reduces wage inequality. While a large part of wage inequality is due to unobservable characteristics, the equalizing effect of mobility mainly occurs within groups. Furthermore, both personal and household characteristics play an important role for wage transitions. Finally, our findings reveal large cross‐country differences across Europe.     

Improving Connectivity in Indonesia: The Challenges of Better Infrastructure,Better Regulations,and Better Coordination

This paper presents and discusses the main challenges that an archipelago like Indonesia is facing in improving its connectivity. Distinguishing between intra‐island, inter‐island, and international connectivity is essential in order to understand the nature of the challenges and causes behind the bottlenecks. High domestic shipping costs are identified as one key challenge. The Government of Indonesia has identified improved connectivity as a key issue in promoting economic growth, especially in the manufacturing sector, now that Indonesia can no longer rely on commodities as a driver of growth. Better infrastructure, regulations, and coordination among stakeholders are crucial components in promoting improved connectivity for manufacturing growth. Promoting investment in infrastructure is necessary, including both hard and soft infrastructure. However, Indonesian experience highlights that without regulatory reform and improved policy coordination, infrastructure investment will continue to lag behind. There is a need for an improved and empowered governance structure to turn investment plans into reality.