Political stability and trade agreements: Evidence for ‘endgame FTAs’

This paper empirically examines the idea that Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) are more likely to be signed by governments playing ‘endgames’; that is, when governments are about to lose power. Two empirical strategies shed light on this hypothesis. One relies on events that increase the probability of political turnover, the other on term limits. I find that countries are more likely to sign FTAs after the unexpected exit of their leaders, when political instability is high. The key finding is partly confirmed in the term-limits strategy as governments are found to form more FTAs during their last term in office.     

Did APEC's Trade Facilitation Action Plans deliver the goods?

This paper uses new data to examine whether APEC achieved its aim of reducing trade transaction costs by 10% over the 2002–2010 period. An inversion of the familiar gravity model makes it possible to infer trade costs based on the observed pattern of trade and production across economies. Analysis of trade costs calculated in this way shows that although intra- and extra-APEC trade costs fell during the sample period, they did not do so substantially more quickly than elsewhere in the world. Indeed, the region taken as a whole did not meet the 10% reduction goal. However, a considerable number of individual economies not only met the goal, they greatly exceeded it. Consistent with their outward oriented development strategies and leverage of global and regional value chains, some APEC economies saw very rapid falls in their trade costs over the 2002–2010 period, Viet Nam being a standout performer. Overall, about one third of the forum's membership for which consistent data are available met or exceeded the 10% reduction goal. APEC's two Trade Facilitation Action Plans can therefore be seen as having had mixed records of success.     

Trade credit and the joint effects of supplier and customer financial characteristics

We examine how access to bank credit affects trade credit in the supplier–customer relationships of U.S. public firms. For identification, we use exogenous liquidity shocks to supplier firms in the form of staggered changes to interstate bank branching laws. Using a variety of tests, we show that supplier firms with greater access to banking liquidity offer more trade credit to their customers. We also show that when bank branching restrictions are relaxed in the supplier’s state, the supplier–customer relationship is more likely to survive.     

服务贸易:新常态下创新路径

服务业开放水平不高和贸易监管制度不健全已成为我国服务贸易发展的制约。在我国经济新常态下,应充分利用上海自由贸易试验区建设机遇,加快开放以计算机服务为重点的跨境交付、以专业服务业为主的商业存在和以职业资质互认为重点的自然人移动等领域,培育本土供应商和打造公共服务平台,完善服务贸易监管制度、促进制度和统计制度,推进区域拓展和主体拓展,实现我国服务贸易整体创新。     

LACK OF RIGOUR IN DEFENDING FAIRTRADE: A REJOINDER TO ALISTAIR SMITH

Smith (2010 ) does not deny that he made errors in economic theory, logic and fact, and that he had misused evidence. He says that I misrepresented a large body of theory, that I distorted what he said in four places and that I was wrong in one sentence. These statements are false.     

Implications of domestic price insulation for global food price behavior

Rapid changes in global food prices in recent years are widely viewed as a serious threat to global development. While various sources of price instability in agriculture have been identified, little attention appears to have been given to the importance of changes in trade policies that insulate domestic prices from world markets as a source of volatility in world prices. A contribution of this paper is to show that these interventions are dynamically more complex than simple proportional insulation. Insulation against an initial price increase in world prices increases the magnitude of that increase, while subsequent adjustments to the level of protection change the fundamental nature of price volatility. We find such policies are widespread and increase the volatility of world prices while not reducing the volatility of domestic prices because of the collective action problem involved in this form of policy intervention.     

“合规性”贸易壁垒影响产业国际竞争力的效应分析

“合规性”贸易壁垒的应用已成为当今贸易保护的最明显特征。本文首先简要讨论了产业国际竞争力的内涵及其评价方法,进而说明产业国际竞争力受“合规性”贸易壁垒影响的作用机理,并分别就“合规性”贸易壁垒对实施国及对象国的产业国际竞争力的影响效应进行了具体分析。     

中美制造业的产品内贸易条件分析

巨额的中美贸易顺差是否使中方获得了同样的贸易利益,一直是中美两国争论的问题之一,而传统的贸易条件理论不能全面地说明中美贸易利益问题.采用基于产品内分工的产品内贸易条件理论,计算和分析中美贸易中八个典型制造业部门1995～2005年的产品内贸易条件,并根据其变化趋势得出结论.     

对外开放条件下的金融安全问题

我国近几年外贸顺差的连创新高,并且进、出口增长的走势与世界经济的联动性日益明显,我国的实体经济已经越来越融入全球经济的大环境当中。同时,我们外贸结构的升级也正在以更快的步伐前进,我国双边贸易的高速增长仍将维持一段时间。中国股市在经历了“2.27”暴跌之后,全球各主要股市随后也遭到重挫。笔者并不认为目前中国的股市对于全球市场有如此巨大的影响,但是全球石油美元的流动以及日元利差交易的变化情况已经逐渐受到国内投资者的重视,中国资本市场已经成为了全球市场的重要一环。在国内实体经济、虚拟经济与世界联动性不断增强的背景下,我们应该更加关注外部因素对于国内经济稳定性的影响,同时也要从其他国家的历史发展经验当中吸取金融安全监管方面的教训。     

我国数字贸易发展:现状、挑战与策略研究

借助互联网新技术的发展与应用推广,全球数字贸易得以快速发展,市场规模增速已经超过传统货物贸易及服务贸易,成为世界贸易发展新动能。我国数字技术和数字经济的高速发展使传统制造业与服务业融合加深,贸易服务性更强,因此我国数字贸易正面临着前所未有的发展机遇。但数字贸易作为数字经济的重要表现形式,其经营模式以及国际间的冲突摩擦,又致使其面临诸多发展挑战,由此提出从内部制度和外部环境两方面同时进行改进与完善,进而推动我国数字贸易发展。