我国数字贸易发展:现状、挑战与策略研究

借助互联网新技术的发展与应用推广,全球数字贸易得以快速发展,市场规模增速已经超过传统货物贸易及服务贸易,成为世界贸易发展新动能。我国数字技术和数字经济的高速发展使传统制造业与服务业融合加深,贸易服务性更强,因此我国数字贸易正面临着前所未有的发展机遇。但数字贸易作为数字经济的重要表现形式,其经营模式以及国际间的冲突摩擦,又致使其面临诸多发展挑战,由此提出从内部制度和外部环境两方面同时进行改进与完善,进而推动我国数字贸易发展。     

Reducing tariff evasion: The role of trade facilitation

Can simplifying customs procedures reduce tariff evasion? We measure tariff evasion as the mis-representation of import values in response to increasing tariffs. In a dataset covering 121 countries and the whole set of HS6 product categories in 2012, 2015, and 2017, we show that simplifying border procedures, that is trade facilitation, reduces tariff evasion. Holding tariff rate constant at its mean, improving a country’s overall trade facilitation performance from the 25th percentile to the median reduces tariff evasion by almost 20%. The moderating effect is especially due to improving the pre-shipment legal certainty of customs procedures. Among the potential mechanisms, improving trade facilitation performance is effective in reducing tariff evasion due to under-reporting of import prices, as well as in countries with weaker control of corruption. The results suggest that countries can gradually implement trade facilitation reforms to cost-effectively minimize tariff evasion.     

加工贸易对安徽省经济增长作用的实证分析

基于对安徽省加工贸易现状的总结、归纳,文章利用安徽省1999-2009年11年的时间序列数据,运用加工贸易增值系数法、加工贸易对GDP拉动度和线性回归三种实证方法,分析了加工贸易对经济增长的作用,并提出了若干政策建议。     

中国频繁遭遇贸易摩擦的原因及其对策

改革开放以来,中国对外贸易发展迅速并取得了巨大成就,但与其他发达国家（地区）相比,对外贸易的发展之路仍很漫长。外部环境的不确定性和自身素质不高等因素给中国对外贸易带来了干扰和阻碍,尤其是在后危机时代,由此引起的贸易摩擦已成为中国进一步融入世界经济过程中的一个难以回避且需要谨慎处理的主要障碍。因此,如何妥善处理对外贸易摩擦,并有效跨越贸易壁垒,进而实现对外贸易又好又快发展,是摆在中国面前的一大难题。本文首先从外部层面和内部层面入手分析了中国频繁遭遇贸易摩擦的主要原因,接着提出构建和完善应对贸易摩擦的预警机制和快速反应机制,并分别从政府、行业协会和企业等不同层面提出了相应的对策和建议,以有效应对并跨越频繁遭遇的贸易壁垒,进而促进中国对外贸易的健康和持续发展。     

中国家具出口贸易的实证研究

家具是中国的一项重要出口产品,但频繁遭遇贸易保护,有必要对中国家具出口进行较深入的研究。为此,本文选择了出口贸易额、出口地理方向、可显示比较优势指数、贸易竞争指数和产业内贸易指数五个指标对中国家具出口情况进行分析。发现近年来中国家具出口增长迅速,但存在出口市场过于集中的问题。中国在家具生产上具有明显的比较优势,中国家具有较强的国际竞争力,家具贸易以产业间贸易为主。中国家具出口企业应该进一步降低对美国出口的比重,积极应对贸易壁垒,并发展一般贸易以替代加工贸易。     

中国服务贸易发展国际比较与提升竞争力之见解

通过对服务贸易的发展现状、结构特征及贸易竞争力指数的国际比较发现,由于起步晚、基础差等因素所致,中国服务贸易发展仍相对滞后。当今现代服务业日渐突起且越来越成为国际产业竞争的焦点,因此,如何加快发展现代服务业,优化服务贸易结构,提升服务贸易竞争力则成为目前亟待研究的课题。     

基于多元回归的中美高技术产品贸易研究

美国长期以来都是中国高技术产品贸易的重要合作伙伴,对中国贸易和相关产业的发展有着举足轻重的作用。本文首先对中美高技术产品贸易现状进行分析,明确中美高技术贸易所具有的贸易规模不断扩大、贸易构成不平衡和我国贸易竞争力薄弱的特点;再通过对中美高技术产品贸易影响因素的分析,从技术创新角度找到影响高技术产品贸易的主要因素;最后为促进两国贸易发展提出建议。     

Distance measures between free trade and autarky for the world economy

We develop a methodology to determine numerically how globalized the world economy is. We present a global general equilibrium model capturing major OECD economies and a residual rest of world for which alternative metrics of distance between observed, free trade and autarky equilibria can be developed. We use data for 2000 and report a number of distance measures between the 2000 observed trade restricted equilibrium and both free trade and autarky equilibria noting the absence of prior literature on metrics of distance between equilibria. The measures are used to determine the degree to which the world economy is globalized.     

The value of nonindigenous species risk assessment in international trade

Managing the introduction of nonindigenous species is becoming a major goal of policy-makers at regional, national and international scales. Here we investigate, at the national level, the ideal design and expected net benefits of a risk assessment program for evaluating the desirability of nonindigenous species imports. We show how to enhance the statistical rigor of such a system by correcting a common non-random sampling problem encountered in the data. This correction enables model output to be interpreted in an economically relevant way and facilitates a theoretically rigorous characterization of the balance between trade and nonindigenous species establishment risk. Using reptiles and amphibians imported to the U.S. as a case study, we characterize economic outcomes over a range of cases and demonstrate substantial expected returns to such a screening program, relative to the current effectively open-door policy. Our results are informative for the current debate in the U.S. about whether to require federal agencies to apply risk assessment before allowing a species for import. The framework presented decomposes a complex argument about risk management into component economic and statistical parts, allowing for debate and improved understanding over each element to inform the overall program in a transparent fashion.     

中国贸易开放度、贸易结构与通货膨胀不确定性关系

完全预期到的通货膨胀在理论上并不会对真实经济活动产生实质性的影响,通货膨胀的真正危害在于它的不确定性。随着贸易开放的不断扩大和深化,影响中国通货膨胀的不确定性的因素变得更加复杂。本文利用EGARCH模型估计了中国的通货膨胀不确定性,并在此基础上利用协整分析方法检验了贸易开放度、贸易结构与通货膨胀不确定性的关系。研究表明:贸易开放度的提高对通货膨胀不确定性具有负向的影响;贸易结构的变化对通货膨胀不确定性具有正向的影响。