Mobility of knowledge and local innovation activity

This paper studies the diffusion of knowledge and its consequences for local innovation production. In a common framework, we analyze the geographic reach of different channels of knowledge flows that thus far have been studied separately in the literature. To jointly estimate these flows, we develop and apply novel econometric techniques appropriate to the nature of the data. We find that geographic along with technological proximity to be more essential to the operation of market than to non-market channels of knowledge flows. External accessible disembodied knowledge has a strong positive effect on local innovation production that is larger than that of embodied knowledge.     

As told by the supplier: Trade credit and the cross section of stock returns

With superior information about their customers’ prospects, suppliers extend trade credit to capture future profitable business. We show that this information advantage generates significant return predictability. After controlling for major firm characteristics, firms that rely more on trade credit relative to debt financing have higher subsequent stock returns. The return predictability by trade credit is stronger among firms with lower borrowing capacity or profitability, and is more significant for firms with a higher degree of information asymmetry. Our findings suggest that trade credit extension reveals suppliers’ information that diffuses gradually across the investing public.     

Comparative advantages in U.S. bilateral services trade with China and India

Using bilateral trade data for 16 service categories, this paper examines the patterns, evolution, and determinants of comparative advantage (CA) in U.S. services trade with China and India from 1992 to 2010. The results indicate that the U.S. has a CA in most services, except in more traditional ones, such as travel and transportation. However, India, and more recently China, gained a CA in modern services, such as computer and information services during the period considered in this paper. An examination of the distributional dynamics indicates that the likelihood of U.S. gaining CA over an initial position of comparative disadvantage (CDA) in its trade of a particular service with India is higher than the probability of losing its initial dominance. In contrast, the U.S. CA or CDA vis-à-vis China exhibits high levels of persistence over time. The regression results suggest that relative abundance of sector-specific labor, human capital, and FDI inflows have been significant sources of CA for the U.S. over both China and India.     

Global paper market forecasts to 2030 under future internet demand scenarios

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was applied to forecast the effect of increased per capita Internet adoption on the global paper products industry to 2030. Two scenarios were examined: (a) full per capita Internet adoption by 2100, and (b) more rapidly by 2050. Global newsprint consumption is estimated to be 34.2–37.1 million tonnes lower in 2030 than in the US Forest Service 2010 Resources Planning Act report, and the 2010 report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Similarly, global printing and writing paper consumption is forecasted to be 76.7–87.1 million tonnes lower by 2030. By including controls for per capita Internet use in the demand equations for print based media, this article reflects the recent declines in global paper product consumption. Out-of-sample forecasts over a two-year period indicate global model prediction errors from 0 to 3%, depending on the product and exogenous assumptions. The results highlight the importance of considering market evolution in long-term global forecasting, and a failure to account for future rates of Internet adoption will result in an upward bias on paper product market forecasts.     

A maritime container repositioning yield-based optimization model with uncertain upsurge demand

The role of container repositioning has become more important under the severe cargo shipping environment, affected by world trade growth, trade imbalance, slow steaming strategy and high container manufacturing cost. Low cost, better routing, and supplying equipment to higher yield cargo become the top criteria. A yield-based container repositioning framework is developed, followed by a constrained linear programming optimizing the container repositioning from surplus to deficit locations. The model incorporated change of destinations of empty containers and adjustment factors handling upsurge demand. The model is applied to optimize daily container repositioning operations with a better route, costs and equipment supply.     

The producer welfare effects of trade liberalization when goods are perishable and habit‐forming: the case of asparagus

Asparagus is a perishable, highly seasonal crop. We find that out‐of‐season imports of asparagus caused habit formation that increased demand in the U.S. growing seasons. We find that habit effects offset about 64% of the welfare losses to U.S. asparagus producers from increased Mexican imports under NAFTA and all of the U.S. producer welfare losses from increased Peruvian imports under the Andean Trade Preference Act. We estimate that the U.S. producer welfare losses from NAFTA are less than the annualized value of market loss assistance provided them in the 2008 Farm Bill.     

Human capital,technological progress and trade: What explains India's long run growth?

Using data for the period 1950–2010, this paper seeks to explain the importance of human capital, technological progress, and trade in determining India's long run growth. This paper uses an improved growth accounting framework and ARDL-based co-integration techniques to identify the factors that drive long run productivity growth. The results suggest that both domestic technology capability building and foreign technology spillovers are important forces in determining India's long run growth. Human capital has turned out to be the most important factor. Trade plays a facilitating role by making available frontier technology in an embodied form from the rest-of-the-world. Although the analysis does not explicitly test any endogenous growth models, our findings are consistent with the recent endogenous growth literature.     

Did China tire safeguard save U.S. workers?

Although temporary trade barriers are perceived as a feasible policy instrument for securing domestic jobs in the presence of increased globalization and economic downturns, no study has assessed whether such temporary barriers have actually saved domestic jobs. To overcome this deficiency, we evaluate the China-specific safeguard case on consumer tires petitioned by the United States. Contrary to claims made by the Obama administration, we find that total employment and average wages in the tire industry were unaffected by the safeguard. Further analysis reveals that this result is not surprising as we find that imports from China are completely diverted to other exporting countries partly due to the strong presence of multinational corporations in the world tire market.     

由红领模式看大数据时代下检验检疫业务模式改革

通过调研红领集团工业化与信息化两化融合方面的新思路、新做法、新经验,对检验检疫部门的内部管理和检验监管模式进行了分析,以期为新形势下检验检疫的业务改革提供思考、启示和借鉴。     

俄白哈关税同盟贸易效应及对中国新疆商品出口贸易的影响

关税同盟的贸易效应对区域外贸易国家和地区的出口贸易具有重要影响。文章应用巴拉萨模型分析了俄白哈关税同盟的贸易效应,结合贸易效应着重探索了俄白哈关税同盟对中国新疆商品出口贸易的影响。结果表明：俄白哈关税同盟的贸易转移效应明显,贸易创造效应初步显现;中国新疆与俄白哈三国的出口贸易紧密度减弱;中国新疆对俄白哈三国的出口贸易增速下降,出口商品贸易结构中的工业制成品占比逐渐下降;俄白哈关税同盟的贸易转移效应对中国新疆商品的出口贸易带来较大冲击。