东亚双边进口贸易流量与潜力:基于贸易引力模型的实证研究

本文利用东亚10个主要经济体1995-2004年的面板数据,建立东亚贸易引力模型,对东亚进口贸易流量的影响因素和潜力进行研究。研究显示,国家经济规模、中国-东盟自由贸易区、东盟自由贸易区、进口国制度、国际直接投资、国家间的经济水平差距和地理距离是东亚双边进口贸易流量的主要影响因素。中国香港、泰国、日本和印度尼西亚对东亚的进口潜力较大,中国、马来西亚、菲律宾和新加坡对东亚的进口潜力较小。加强东亚区域内最终产品市场和区域贸易合作的发展、推进东亚各经济体的制度改革和调整、积极合理地引进国际直接投资、加强物流建设与合作,应成为东亚各经济体未来重要的政策取向。     

中国各区域对外贸易的决定因素分析--中国八大区域与东亚三经济体间的贸易

本文将中国划分为8大区域,通过分析这8大区域与韩国、台湾地区、日本之间的贸易趋势,寻找影响中国各区域国际贸易的主要因素。韩国、台湾地区、日本这三个东亚经济体作为中国的主要贸易伙伴,在中国的市场占有率达到40%,在同中国的贸易中存在着区域和商品种类上的差别。即韩国在东北地区、台湾在南部沿海地区、日本则在中国大部分地区显示出较高的市场占有率,并且它们在中国各沿海地区的产品出口种类趋于相同,说明东亚三个经济体在中国各地区的竞争越来越激烈。通过对东亚三个经济体同中国各区域产业内贸易趋势的分析,发现,收入水平高、产业结构相对高级的东部沿海区域表现出相互独立的贸易结构。这种现象可以进一步解释为各区域之间还存在着较独立的产业结构。产业内贸易大部分由垂直产业内贸易构成,即同东亚三个经济体形成了商品质量和价格差别的同一品种之间的贸易。最后,通过对产业内贸易决定因素的计量分析,可以看出中国各区域的人均收入水平、外国直接投资额、工业产品出口比重等是决定垂直产业内贸易的主要因素。     

Evaluation of import substitution strategy in Indian telecom sector: Empirical evidence of non-linear dynamics

The Indian telecom sector, post-liberalization, is characterized by the heavy dependence on the imports of telecom products, even though several policy initiatives have been taken by the government during the last three decades to reduce import dependence. This study investigates to what extent the policy measures adopted after 2012 have impacted the import, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and domestic manufacturing performance in the telecom sector. A series of non-linear time series techniques are employed to capture the complex dynamics among these variables. The outcomes of the study suggest that the import, FDI, and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in the telecom sector share non-linear relationships that exhibit regime shifts, time-varying behavior, and asymmetry. The study highlights that the FDI drives the import and, in normal circumstances, FDI and imports have the potential to influence IIP in the telecom sector in the long-run. The findings indicate that the policy measures adopted by the government are justifiable as the import substitution strategies have the potential to get transmitted to the telecom sector in the future. Based on the empirical findings, the study proposes a set of policy measures, which should help the sector to grow intrinsically while lowering the import dependence.     

舟山国际农副产品加工贸易中心建设研究

国际农副产品加工贸易中心能为农产品加工和贸易提供系统化的一站式服务,能为加速农产品流通奠定坚实基础,助推农业供给侧结构性改革。本文通过整合舟山在地域区位、资源禀赋、政策福利、基础设施各方面占据的有利条件,提出需要从顶层设计、基础设施、营商环境、发展后劲、平台建设等方面着手打造舟山国际农副产品加工贸易中心。     

UNDERSTANDING ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSIBILITY OF CITIES AND EMISSIONS EMBODIED IN TRADE

The attribution of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions embedded in interregionally traded products to either production or consumption regions is a key issue to the understanding of the global environmental responsibility of metropolitan areas. In this paper we identify GHG emissions for which metropolitan areas assume responsibility by allocating emissions embodied in import and export products to regions of either consumption or production in the cases of three US metropolitan areas. The case studies show that embodied emissions in both export and import products accounted for 63–73% of total GHG emissions directly and indirectly pertaining to these metropolitan economies. These findings suggest that an accounting method that incorporates emissions embodied in product trade has relevance to the development of local policies that govern actions ranging from redirecting metropolitan development patterns toward low carbon emissions to promoting sustainable consumption behavior, particularly those involving the collaboration of cities.     

Economic policy uncertainty and capital structure choice: Evidence from China

This paper studies how economic policy uncertainty affects corporate capital structure for Chinese listed firms from 2003 to 2013. We show that as the degree of economic policy uncertainty increases, firms tend to lower their leverage ratios. However, firms that are from regions with lower degrees of marketization, are state-owned or have prior bank-firm relationships mitigate the negative effect of policy uncertainty. Moreover, we provide consistent evidence that this negative effect is sourced from the deterioration of the external financing environment. We also find that firms adjust their financing structures by using more trade credit when economic policy uncertainty increases. Our results are robust to sample selection, data frequency, model specification and endogeneity.     

Agricultural liberalization,poverty and inequality: Indonesia and Thailand

The effects of agricultural and general trade liberalization in Indonesia and Thailand are analyzed and compared using a multi-household, multi-sector integrated general equilibrium framework. In both countries agricultural protection contributes a relatively small part of the total cost of protection because when the protection is removed the gain in welfare is much smaller in the case of agricultural liberalization than across the board liberalization. In both countries the poor, urban and rural, have a strong interest in across the board liberalization of trade policy. The urban poor also have an interest in agricultural trade liberalization, but not the rural poor.     

Mobility of knowledge and local innovation activity

This paper studies the diffusion of knowledge and its consequences for local innovation production. In a common framework, we analyze the geographic reach of different channels of knowledge flows that thus far have been studied separately in the literature. To jointly estimate these flows, we develop and apply novel econometric techniques appropriate to the nature of the data. We find that geographic along with technological proximity to be more essential to the operation of market than to non-market channels of knowledge flows. External accessible disembodied knowledge has a strong positive effect on local innovation production that is larger than that of embodied knowledge.     

As told by the supplier: Trade credit and the cross section of stock returns

With superior information about their customers’ prospects, suppliers extend trade credit to capture future profitable business. We show that this information advantage generates significant return predictability. After controlling for major firm characteristics, firms that rely more on trade credit relative to debt financing have higher subsequent stock returns. The return predictability by trade credit is stronger among firms with lower borrowing capacity or profitability, and is more significant for firms with a higher degree of information asymmetry. Our findings suggest that trade credit extension reveals suppliers’ information that diffuses gradually across the investing public.     

Comparative advantages in U.S. bilateral services trade with China and India

Using bilateral trade data for 16 service categories, this paper examines the patterns, evolution, and determinants of comparative advantage (CA) in U.S. services trade with China and India from 1992 to 2010. The results indicate that the U.S. has a CA in most services, except in more traditional ones, such as travel and transportation. However, India, and more recently China, gained a CA in modern services, such as computer and information services during the period considered in this paper. An examination of the distributional dynamics indicates that the likelihood of U.S. gaining CA over an initial position of comparative disadvantage (CDA) in its trade of a particular service with India is higher than the probability of losing its initial dominance. In contrast, the U.S. CA or CDA vis-à-vis China exhibits high levels of persistence over time. The regression results suggest that relative abundance of sector-specific labor, human capital, and FDI inflows have been significant sources of CA for the U.S. over both China and India.