经济危机根源及其消除方法论

扫描人类活动,从中找到了公平、质效、GDP三个关键点。公平因素包括不公平分配和不公平交易,是引发经济危机的根本点。为实现公平,从土地切入发现了平衡工农城乡利益机制的投资置业系数CIP=(0,4]。这只能消除贫富悬殊引发的产消不畅之实体危机。为全面消除经济危机,应针对经济危机的六个阶段建设消除经济危机的系统工程。经济发展总是从公平到不公平,从公平、质效、GDP三者平衡到不平衡,最后进入经济危机状态;经济危机往往从金融危机开始,而我们应从土地切入调动资金作战。     

银行业国际化进程及其对发展中国家金融市场的影响

在世界经济全球化和金融自由化背景下,银行业国际化进程不断加快,对世界经济产生了深远的影响,以此为线索,本文重点分析了现代银行业国际化的形成、特点及其对发展中国家金融市场的影响,认为全球真正意义上的银行业国际化开始于20世纪50年代末,欧洲和美国的经济背景、欧洲美元市场的兴起、金融创新和金融自由化等因素推动其发展.随着银行业国际化规模不断扩大、国际化步伐不断加快、绩效日趋改善,其对发展中国家银行业效率系统的稳定、货币市场、外汇市场和资本市场等方面的影响加大.     

对口援疆政策实施效果及满意度分析——基于15个地州的调查数据

本文借助配额抽样资料,从受援地居民对当地政府工作的满意度以及援疆政策落实情况的满意度两个维度对中央实施的全面对口支援政策的实施效果进行了实证分析.结果表明：受援地居民对当地政府的政策执行力的满意度较高,但对其管理理念和廉政建设的满意度较低,对其服务意识、管理理念和执法行为的满意度一般;且受援地居民认为,产业援疆实效偏低,教育援强实效较好,医疗援疆实效最高;人才援疆政策没有落到实处.因此,本文认为应健全对口援疆政策实施的监管机制、实效评价机制以及人才援疆机制,搭建劳动力培训平台等,以切实提高对口援疆的实效.     

How to evaluate the effects of climate change on tourism

The aim of this study is to assess the most relevant quantitative approaches to evaluating the effects of climate change on tourism. In recent years, numerous empirical studies have conducted evaluations of this kind, based on different methodologies and perspectives. This review shows that the effects of climate change can first be assessed through changes in physical conditions essential to tourism; secondly, by using climate indexes to measure the attractiveness of tourist destinations; and, thirdly, by modelling tourism demand with the inclusion of climate determinants. The review suggests that, although some methodologies are in the early stages of development, different approaches result in a similar map of those areas mainly affected by the problem.     

中国农村普惠金融发展水平研究

本文以1978-2013年的中国农村金融运行数据为研究对象,通过构建“农村金融成熟度模型”,来衡量中国改革开放以来中国农村普惠金融发展水平。研究结果表明：1978-2013年中国农村普惠金融发展虽经历波折但整体向好,相比改革初期,21世纪以来农村金融服务各方面都得到明显改善,并且在2007年以后中国农村普惠金融发展迅猛。但是,中国农村普惠金融的发展中存在过度重视农村金融“量”上的积累,而忽视“广度”、“深度”、“效率”等多方面协同发展的问题。鉴于此,本文结合普惠金融理论提出相关建议。     

The role of governance in mobile phones for inclusive human development in Sub-Saharan Africa

This study assesses the synergy effects of governance in mobile phone penetration for inclusive human development in Sub-Saharan Africa with data for the period 2000–2012. It employs a battery of interactive estimation techniques, namely: Fixed effects, Generalised Method of Moments and Tobit regressions. Concepts of political (voice and accountability and political stability/no violence), economic (government effectiveness and regulation quality) and institutional (corruption-control and rule of law) governance are employed. The following findings are established. The previously apparent positive correlation between mobile phones and inclusive development can be extended to a positive effect. Although political governance is overwhelmingly not significant across estimated models, the average effects from economic governance are higher relative to institutional governance. On the interactions between mobile phones and governance variables, while none are apparent in Fixed effects regressions, there are significant synergy effects in Generalised Method of Moments and Tobit estimations, notably, from: regulation quality in the former and political stability, voice and accountability and rule of law in the latter. There is consistent evidence of convergence in inclusive human development. Policy implications are discussed.     

大、中、小企业货币紧缩效应及其差异研究

中、小企业资金链断裂及破产潮是否是货币紧缩期的常态？为此,本文基于国家统计局工业企业数据,首次探讨了中国不同规模企业货币紧缩效应及其相互间的差异。研究发现,货币政策总体上基本有效,但是有偏的,对大、中、小企业的作用效果截然不同。大企业货币紧缩效应微乎其微,而中小企业受到的冲击非常突出,中型企业尤为严重,不仅外部融资水平降低,而且主营业务收入、存货、利润全面出现显著下降。这种效应一方面严重背离货币紧缩的“全局”性要求及其真正目标;另一方面固化国内大、中、小企业“大者恒大、弱者更弱”的失衡生存状态,应引起高度重视。否则中小企业困境将变成货币紧缩期的常态。     

制度环境视角下社会资本对区域创新能力的门槛效应检验

基于2001-2012年中国内地30个省市自治区的面板数据,利用门槛面板回归模型检验了制度环境视角下社会资本对区域创新能力的门槛效应。结果表明,社会资本对区域创新能力的影响存在显著的门槛效应：在中低市场化进程和中等法制水平下,社会资本对专利申请授权数有显著正向影响,且强政府干预下社会资本对专利申请授权数的正向影响要强于弱政府干预下的影响;在高市场化进程和中强程度政府干预下,社会资本对新产品销售收入有显著正向影响,在低法制水平下,社会资本与新产品销售收入之间显著负相关。     

Inventory in mainland China: Historical, industry, and geographic perspectives

We review inventories in mainland China by evaluating the trajectory of aggregate inventories in recent decades, and then modelling the relationship of inventories in some 300,000 manufacturers with respect to volume (using cost of goods sold), industry (using SIC codes), and geographical location (using the 31 regions of China). We find that inventories generally exhibit economies of scale (in terms of cost of goods sold) in all but one industry (tobacco), and differ widely by province, with relatively high inventories in remote regions.We provide explanations for apparent diseconomies of scale for large unlisted firms, and reflect on why publicly listed manufacturers have significantly higher inventories than do unlisted firms. We note that manufacturing inventories as a proportion of manufacturing value-added are substantially higher in China than in the US The results may be employed for benchmarking and auditing of firms and managers, as well as for conducting due diligence for investment, mergers and acquisitions.