自由贸易协定原产地规则调整的经济效应评估——以《美墨加协定》汽车原产地规则为例

本文使用2011—2019年美国汽车市场数据,测度了1354款车型的需求价格弹性和替代弹性,在识别了原产地规则限制度对合规车型售价影响的基础上,反事实模拟测算了《美墨加协定》汽车原产地规则调整的经济效应。研究发现:(1)美国汽车市场上各款车型的需求价格弹性和替代弹性是异质性的;(2)以北美区域价值含量为代理变量的原产地规则与美国汽车市场上合规车型售价呈正向相关关系,与不合规车型售价呈U型关系;(3)《美墨加协定》汽车原产地规则限制度的提升,会对需要调整采购决策以继续合规的车型销量产生负向冲击,其他车型受市场替代效应的影响,其销量有所增加;(4)原产地规则调整降低了对北美自由贸易区外汽车中间品的需求,提升了对区内汽车中间品的需求。     

汇率波动、生产网络与股市风险--基于中美贸易摩擦背景的分析北大核心

本文从生产网络视角出发,研究中美贸易摩擦期间汇率变动对中美两国股票市场的直接影响以及由行业间生产联系带来的网络影响。从静态一般均衡模型可推出具有空间自回归(SAR)模型形式的实证模型,其中以行业间投入产出关系作为空间权重矩阵。实证结果发现,中美双边汇率变动对两国股市的影响在贸易摩擦期间均比之前更为显著,人民币贬值导致中国股市收益率下降,其中约50%是由行业间生产联系带来的网络效应,而美元升值导致了美国股市收益率下降,其中约37%是网络效应。关税制裁波及的行业与未波及行业的股票收益率均受汇率变动影响,但后者受到的网络影响更大,且各行业受到的网络影响主要由其下游行业传递。     

Inclusive leadership via empathic communication

In today’s rapidly changing society, leaders have to constantly deal with multiple urgent demands interacting with others through various communication modalities - that can happen face to face, via video conferencing, phone calls, etc. - and guide diverse groups of individuals. Having empathic conversations is key for inclusive leadership. Leaders need to understand their emotions and others’ emotional state to build bonds for effective collaboration at work. Yet the reality is that it is challenging for leaders to be aware of their own empathic or non-empathic approach, especially given that hybrid communication is required in their daily lives. This paper introduces communication approaches for empathic conversations considering various modalities including face-to-face, video, or voice-only communication. We provide step-by-step instructions and guided questions to showcase how to develop empathic communication skills. With these strategies, leaders can practice their empathy ‘muscle’ considering various communication modalities with a focus on non-verbal and verbal cues.     

ICT interaction with trade,FDI and financial inclusion on inclusive growth in top African nations ranked by ICT development

The significance of ICT (information and communication technology) framework in efforts to attract foreign investment (FDI), sustain commerce, and boost financial inclusion for enhanced inclusive growth has revolutionized the global system recently. Furthermore, earlier researches on the connection between ICT and growth concentrated more on general expansion than on the kind of growth that is evenly distributed and has broader societal implications than merely growing the size of the overall economic pie. This study critically analyzes the connection between ICT diffusion and inclusive growth, considering the interactive impacts of trade openness, FDI, and financial inclusion on inclusive growth in top African nations ranked in terms of ICT development, so as to close the existing literature gap. An improved-GMM (generalized method of moments) technique, founded on panel data-set spanning the years 2000–2020, is used in the study. By employing PCA (principal component analysis) to measure inclusive growth, ICT diffusion, and financial inclusion indices, the study contributes to the body of prior research. The model also accounts for the heterogeneous impact of the interactive term between ICT diffusions and trade openness, FDI, and financial inclusion on inclusive growth. Overall, results indicate that while ICT diffusion, trade openness, FDI, and financial inclusion significantly and positively enhance inclusive growth at both the individual and interaction levels, inflation hinders it. The study suggests that policymakers should establish measures to advance ICT development, encourage trade openness, attract foreign direct investment, and improve financial inclusion because these measures have tendencies to support inclusive growth by opening up a number of opportunities.