居民住房房地产税免税扣除方式的效应分析——基于中国家庭收入调查数据的微观模拟

对居民住房征收房地产税要考虑家庭最基本的居住需要,有必要设计合理的免税扣除方案。本文基于中国家庭收入调查数据,比较分析了"按人均面积扣除"、"按人均价值扣除"和"按套数扣除"三种免税扣除方式的公平效应、财政收入效应和供求效应。研究发现,在改善收入分配、筹集财政收入和调节房地产市场供求方面,"按套数扣除"方式最不可取,"按人均面积扣除"和"按人均价值扣除"方式各有利弊。本文建议将人均面积扣除和人均价值扣除方式相结合,采取"面积+价值"的复合扣除方式,并提出了相应的配套措施及建议。     

经济开放与货币需求:国际金融风险及持币成本的测度

在中国开放经济体制下的基准货币需求模型中,本文将源于国际金融市场的持币成本设为遗漏潜变量,并构建特定的国际金融综合指数(CIFI)作为该潜变量的测度。借鉴机器学习与测度理论,本文利用对数误差修正模型提出了分步降维的CIFI构造算法,构造了长期CIFI和短期CIFI。结果表明,CIFI构造中的无监督降维步骤有助于减少高维金融数据中的冗余信息。实证分析发现,国际机会成本对中国货币需求具有规律性的前导影响,而在2007至2008年国际金融危机期间,央行的应急措施对长期CIFI所代表的非均衡冲击起到明显的阻截效果,对短期CIFI的影响基本是持续不变的。通过综合指数构造与宏观货币需求模型的算法连接,可以利用CIFI的构成结构从前导时间与影响强度两方面追踪冲击货币需求的国际金融风险的具体来源,这为宏观决策者监测国际金融市场提供了颇有规律的信息。在方法论上,本研究为如何利用模型监测国际金融市场影响宏观经济开辟了一条新路。     

From COVID-19 herd immunity to investor herding in international stock markets: The role of government and regulatory restrictions

We study if government response to the novel coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic can mitigate investor herding behaviour in international stock markets. Our empirical analysis is informed by daily stock market data from 72 countries from both developed and emerging economies in the first quarter of 2020. The government response to the COVID-19 outbreak is measured by means of the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, where higher scores are associated with greater stringency. Three main findings are in order. First, results show evidence of investor herding in international stock markets. Second, we document that the Oxford Government Response Stringency Index mitigates investor herding behaviour, by way of reducing multidimensional uncertainty. Third, short-selling restrictions, temporarily imposed by the national and supranational regulatory authorities of the European Union, appear to exert a mitigating effect on herding. Finally, our results are robust to a range of model specifications.     

Gender Diversity Index. Measuring persistence

This paper deals with the analysis of the Gender Diversity Index (GDI), which is an Index developed by Solactive AG and is calculated and distributed by this provider. The index tracks the performance of developed world companies that are successfully working towards gender diversity as part of their CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility) strategy, and we measure its degree of persistence by using fractional integration or I(d) techniques. Using daily data from 8 December 2010 until 16 December 2020, the results indicate that the series is highly persistent with an order of integration lower than, though very close to 1. However, an interesting result is obtained by estimating d recursively across subsamples. The differencing parameter moves around 0.92 until 23 March 2020, with the series displaying a very small degree of mean reversion behaviour until that date. After that period, however, we observe an increase in the estimate of d, which stabilizes around 0.97 after 5 May 2020, though now the series presents evidence of a lack of mean reversion, with the shock having a permanent effect on the series. Thus, it seems that the sanitary crisis due to Covid-19 has had a clear effect in the degree of persistence of the GDI data.     

基于数据包络(DEA)分析的京津冀地区环境绩效评估研究

提高资源环境绩效是区域生态环境治理的核心与关键。在构建环境绩效评估指标体系的基础上，运用数据包络分析模型（DEA）测度并分析2005-2015年京津冀地区静态环境绩效水平。利用Malmquist指数动态分析法将环境绩效分解为技术效率变化指数和技术进步指数，并探讨分解指标对环境绩效的相对贡献。结果显示：京津冀地区环境治理投入与产出水平均呈现逐年上升趋势；北京和天津的总体环境绩效水平要远高于河北，2005-2011年京津冀地区的环境绩效水平排序为北京、天津、河北,2012-2015年京津冀地区的环境绩效水平排序为天津、北京、河北（2013年除外）。河北省环境绩效水平较低的主要制约因素是技术进步缓慢与全要素生产率偏低。Malmquist指数呈现出一定的波性，这主要是由技术变化指标波动所致。最后，就如何提升京津冀地区环境绩效水平，提出相关对策建议。     

国家高新区创新国际化水平及影响因素研究

创新国际化是增强国家国际竞争力的关键。构建国家高新技术产业开发区创新国际化水平评价指标体系，以2014-2016年我国“一带一路”沿线68个国家高新区为研究对象，运用主成分分析法和二次指派程序方法对国家高新区创新国际化水平及影响因素进行实证研究。结果发现：国家高新区创新国际化以创新主体交互、创新活动融入、创新资源流动、创新绩效提升为本质特征；国家高新区创新国际化水平存在显著的区域不平衡性，东部沿海高新区创新国际化水平较高，中西部高新区创新国际化水平较低；国家高新区地理位置、经济发展、技术水平、政策质量等差异对创新国际化水平差异影响显著，自然生态环境差异对创新国际化水平差异影响不显著。     

股指期货的套期保值问题

中国金融市场即将推出股票指数期货。本文吸收和借鉴了国外的研究成果,对股指期货的套期保值问题进行了系统研究,采用方差法和β系数法对风险最小化的套期保值比率进行了充分论证,并结合案例进行了模拟计算。本文根据资本资产定价模型,建立了一元线性回归方程,对流行的β系数法进行了检验和重要修正,对套期保值实践具有重要的指导意义。     

Efficiency and productivity change in Ukrainian health care

The study analyses technical efficiency and efficiency change of 193 community hospitals and polyclinics across Ukraine, for the years 1997–2001. These facilities are a subset of the medical institutions in rural Ukraine; they are identical w.r.t. their function in the health system and share the same departmental structure. The data comprise the number of beds in the hospitals, the number of staff employed in the hospitals as well as the polyclinics connected to the hospitals, the number of inpatient and outpatient admissions as well as the number of surgical procedures, lab tests, X-rays performed and the number of deaths and deaths after surgery. Because of the known sensitivity of traditional nonparametric frontier estimators to outlier observations, we employ an order-m estimator, a robust technique, to assess the efficiency of these health care providers as well as changes of their productivity time. The efficiency scores are calculated with an output-oriented model; they are close to unity for hospitals whereas polyclinics seem somewhat less efficient. The Malmquist-indices averaged over all observations are close to unity indicating that productivity does not change over during our observation period. But, depending on the period and the region, substantial deviations from unity can be observed.

A Stochastic Receding Horizon Control Approach to Constrained Index Tracking

This paper develops stochastic receding horizon control for a constrained index tracking problem. By modeling the asset dynamics in the problems as a linear system subject to state and control multiplicative noise, and approximating linear chance constraints with quadratic expectation constraints, we show that index tracking can be approached using stochastic receding horizon control. In particular, we use a closed loop version of stochastic receding horizon control where the on-line optimization is solved as a semi-definite program. Numerical examples demonstrate the computations involved in these problems and indicate that stochastic receding horizon control is a promising new approach to constrained index tracking. C. H. Sung completed this work while he was a graduate student in the Management Science and Engineering Department, Stanford University.     

Index Revision,House Price Risk,and the Market for House Price Derivatives

It is widely recognized that options and futures markets for housing can reduce and manage the risks inherent in consumers’ large investments in housing equity. The integrity of such markets depends, however, upon the use of transparent and replicable benchmarks for house prices and settlement values. In the USA, a series of state and metropolitan indexes have been produced by a government agency (the US Office of Housing Enterprise Oversight, OFHEO), and they have been widely disseminated for over a decade. By construction, the entire historical path of each of these indexes is, in principle, subject to revision quarterly, that is, every time the index is recalculated and data are published. This paper provides the first analysis of the magnitude and bias of these revisions, and it analyzes their systematic effects on the settlement prices in housing options markets. The paper considers the implications of these magnitudes for the development of risk-reducing futures markets.