中国的潜在产出、产出缺口及产量--通货膨胀交替关系--基于"Kalman滤波"方法的研究

本文介绍并运用“Kalman滤波”方法估计1979-2004年间我国的潜在经济增长率和产出缺口，然后根据这些结果检验了我国经济增长与通货膨胀率之间的交替关系、社会的通货膨胀预期对经济的影响、决定产出缺口大小的影响因素等，最后利用研究结果对我国2005年的经济发展进行了预测。     

货币政策的粘性均衡汇率效应模型及人民币汇率定价的弹性分析

本文以开放的宏观经济为框架、以厂商利润最大化为微观经济基础、以严格的数学推导为逻辑纽带、以粘性价格为理论依据、以购买力平价的微分冲击形式为理论基础，提出并构建了两国货币政策的粘性均衡汇率效应模型。应用模型，本文对1992～2002年的人民币粘性均衡汇率进行了定价，并对2003年的定价进行了预测。以定价汇率及其预测为标准，对1992～2003年的人民币汇率偏离与经常性项目的关系，进行了弹性分析。根据模型与实证分析，获得了一些重要结论。     

Inflation model of a semicommand economy

A semicommand economy can be defined as a system where the pricing of goods is influenced by the market but where the prices of production factors are under control of the state. The model presents various pricing and economic policy measures to deal with inflation. It is constructed as a dynamic supply-side focused, input-output model which differentiates nominal and real movements. It examines the possible responses of prices and the volume of production to certain measures or programmes to counteract inflation. The cases described are based on the present day Yugoslav economy.     

温和通货膨胀下的货币政策选择

2003年以来,我国摆脱了通货紧缩的阴影,进入了一个温和的通货膨胀时期.这一轮温和的通货膨胀主要源于货币信贷的过快增长,而基础货币投放过多主要源于外汇占款的快速增长.实证研究表明,我国通货膨胀率与M0、M1、M2以及贷款增长率之间都存在正相关关系.缓解和释放通货膨胀压力既需要运用数量型货币政策工具,更需要运用价格型货币政策工具.为了缓解通货膨胀压力,中国人民银行应该实行"双升"的货币政策,在调升人民币利率水平的同时调整人民币汇率,既升息又升值,但升息和升值的幅度不宜过大.     

公众期望与会计信息真实性的关联分析

公众对会计的期望与对会计行为的认识之间存在期望差距,基于不同期望水平对会计信息失真现象所作的分类揭示了会计信息真实性的内涵。通过公众期望与会计信息真实性的关联分析可以发现,加强公众与会计界的沟通理解以及强化会计信息失真的治理,是解决会计信息真实性问题的有效途径。     

Threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between goods and services inflation in the United States

In this paper, we model the long-run relationship between goods and services inflation for the United States over the period 1968:1–2003:3. Our empirical methodology makes use of recent developments on threshold cointegration that consider the possibility of a nonlinear relationship between the two inflation series. According to our results, the null hypothesis of linear cointegration would be rejected in favor of a two-regime threshold cointegration model. Consequently, we could expect a cointegrating relationship only when the divergence between services inflation and goods inflation is above the threshold point estimate.     

On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico

We estimate an augmented multivariate GARCH-M model of inflation and output growth for Mexico at business cycle frequencies. The main findings are: (1) inflation uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on growth; (2) once the effect of inflation uncertainty is accounted for, lagged inflation does not have a direct negative effect on output growth; (3) However as predicted by Friedman and Ball, higher average inflation raises inflation uncertainty, and the overall net effect of average inflation on output growth in Mexico is negative. That is, average inflation is harmful to Mexican growth due to its impact on inflation uncertainty. (4) The Mexican Presidential election cycle significantly raises inflation uncertainty both during the year of the election and the year following the election which has correspondingly negative effects on output growth.     

Hybrid Inflation-Price-Level Targeting in an Economy With Output Persistence

This paper investigates hybrid inflation‐price‐level targeting (HT), employing a Phillips curve with output persistence. By HT we mean that a central bank targets a weighted average of the optimal inflation rate and its corresponding price level. The analysis shows that if output is persistent to some extent, it is desirable to adopt HT because, relative to the case of alternative regimes such as inflation targeting (IT) and price‐level targeting (PT), it will reduce the variability of inflation and thereby social loss. In addition, it is shown that the optimal hybrid‐type target is uniquely determined according to the degree of persistence in output.     

伯南克货币政策主张及其影响-分析与预期

伯南克已于2006年2月1日接替格林斯潘担任了美国联邦储备理事会主席。本文分析伯南克的货币政策主张特征,比较这些主张与格林斯潘和其任内联储货币政策主张、决策风格的异同,并据此预期伯南克货币政策主张及其对联储货币政策的影响。     

R. J. Chambers on Securities and Obscurities: Making a Case for the Reform of the Law of Company Accounts in the 1970s

This study examines the contribution of Raymond J. Chambers to the British inflation accounting debate in the early‐to‐mid 1970s, from the perspective of the reception of his book, Securities and Obscurities: A Case for Reform of the Law of Company Accounts, published in 1973. To structure the empirical narrative, drawing on previously unpublished documents from the R. J. Chambers Archives, we employ Czarniawska and Joerges’ ( 1996 ) notion of the ‘travel of ideas’, and Mumford’s ( 1979 ) observation of the existence of ‘inflation accounting debate cycles’. The result is a narrative that traces the environmental and material circumstances that led to Chambers’ book having a lesser impact on the British inflation debate than one would expect based on the international exposure of his ideas, his influence at the time, and the empirical rigour of his proposal. The purpose of this exercise is to assess how contextual factors, such as the choice of publisher, use of promotional material, and distribution methods, can be as (or more) important than the substance of the proposed ideas, arguments, and solutions.