国际石油现货价格波动对我国通货膨胀率波动的影响

现有文献认为国际石油价格波动对我国通货膨胀影响显著,而且国际油价对我国通货膨胀存在显著的单向Granger因果关系。从定性分析来看,既存在支持国际石油价格波动会对我国通货膨胀产生影响的理由,也存在削弱这种影响的理由,因此定性分析的结论是模棱两可的;从基于Almon PDL模型的经验分析来看,并没有令人信服的经验结果支持国际石油价格波动会对我国通货膨胀产生显著影响的结论,因此可以得出国际石油价格波动对我国通货膨胀影响并不很显著,但存在微弱影响的结论。     

Disinflation programs under policy uncertainty

This paper uses a model with endogenous labor supply to study exchange rate-based inflation stabilization programs under uncertainty regarding the duration of the program. The paper finds that the output and consumption dynamics induced by these programs are extremely sensitive to whether the programs are perceived to have a chance of continuing permanently or whether they are expected to end in finite time. It is shown that the business cycle dynamics for output that are typically associated with these programs arise only when the policy is expected to collapse in finite time. Furthermore, for the purposes of rationalizing the stylized facts, the uncertain duration channel appears to induce a fundamental tension between the consumption dynamics and the current account dynamics. These results raise doubts regarding the explanatory power of the uncertain duration channel in particular and the credibility channel in general.     

A Phillips curve interpretation of error-correction models of the wage and price dynamics

This paper presents a model of employment, distribution andinflation in which a modern error correction specification ofthe nominal wage and price dynamics (referring to claims onincome by workers and firms) occupies a prominent role. It isbrought out, explicitly, how this rather typical error-correctionsetting, which actually seems to capture the wage and pricedynamics of many large-scale econometric models quite well,is fully compatible with the notion of an old-fashioned Phillipscurve with finite slope. It is shown how the steady-state impactof various shocks to the model can be profitably conceived ofand interpreted in terms of (and to some extent even calculatedby means of) this long-run Phillips curve.     

Price expectations, capital accumulation and employment: Lindahl's macroeconomics from the 1920s to the 1950s

Erik Lindahl's approach to macroeconomics focused on the non-neutralityof monetary policy (in the short and the long run) and on thedenial of the existence of natural rates of interest and unemployment.From the 1920s until his death in 1960, Lindahl advocated theuse of norms for monetary policy to fight inflation and deflationprecisely because he would not rely on the market system's returnto natural rates. Making use of hitherto unexplored material,this paper analyses the development of Lindahl's thinking aboutprice level changes, investment and employment from the 1920sto the 1950s.     

基于CPI分类权重优化视角的我国核心通货膨胀率测算

针对我国CPI统计中所存在的权重偏误等问题,以自有住房支出估计和CPI分类权重测度为研究突破口,根据国外官方统计部门和央行机构普遍采用的剔除法和截尾平均法测算了我国的核心通货膨胀率。结果显示,测算结果较好地反映了一般价格水平的长期变化情况,具有相对的稳定性;剔除法的测算结果整体上优于截尾平均法;在剔除法的应用中,分类项目的进一步细化有助于获得稳定性更强、“削峰平谷”效果更好的核心通货膨胀率序列;通过对剔除法的测算结果来看,核心通货膨胀序列较好地契合了我国货币政策窗口期。     

Inflation and growth in South Africa

This paper studies the relationship between inflation and growthin South Africa. Two main issues are addressed: do tests ofthe South African data support the findings of cross-sectionstudies that inflation has a negative effect on growth overthe longer term? and, can higher growth be gained at the costof higher inflation in the short run? The findings are thatinflation drags down growth in South Africa over the longerterm, and that, in the short run, growth above its trend requiresaccelerating inflation. Thus, for growth to be pulled substantiallyabove its present low trend, inflation targeting in South Africawould have to be abandoned. However, this would be counterproductiveover the longer term, once the negative relationship betweeninflation and growth manifests itself.     

人民币汇率升值预期对我国国内生产成本的影响

改革开放以来,我国凭借国内生产的成本优势在国际贸易中获取了大量利益。出口刺激了经济的快速增长,然而持续顺差带来的本币升值问题却成为我国经济发展中的两难。虽然汇率升值可能造成出口部门竞争力下降,但是,理论上讲,汇率的升值也能够缓解国内通货膨胀的压力,并且能够降低进口原材料价格,从而降低国内的生产成本。然而,自汇改以来,人民币的升值并没有减缓通胀压力,相反的,升值一直伴随着物价的上涨,于此同时,人民币汇率、国内资产价格和物价之间的联动越来越明显。本文从人民币汇率预期、资产价格和物价的关系入手,研究人民币汇率升值预期对我国国内生产成本的影响。结果表明,人民币升值预期会导致我国国内生产成本的上涨,即成本优势的丧失。     

R. J. Chambers on Securities and Obscurities: Making a Case for the Reform of the Law of Company Accounts in the 1970s

This study examines the contribution of Raymond J. Chambers to the British inflation accounting debate in the early‐to‐mid 1970s, from the perspective of the reception of his book, Securities and Obscurities: A Case for Reform of the Law of Company Accounts, published in 1973. To structure the empirical narrative, drawing on previously unpublished documents from the R. J. Chambers Archives, we employ Czarniawska and Joerges’ ( 1996 ) notion of the ‘travel of ideas’, and Mumford’s ( 1979 ) observation of the existence of ‘inflation accounting debate cycles’. The result is a narrative that traces the environmental and material circumstances that led to Chambers’ book having a lesser impact on the British inflation debate than one would expect based on the international exposure of his ideas, his influence at the time, and the empirical rigour of his proposal. The purpose of this exercise is to assess how contextual factors, such as the choice of publisher, use of promotional material, and distribution methods, can be as (or more) important than the substance of the proposed ideas, arguments, and solutions.     

通货膨胀与房地产市场的相关性分析

本文通过对我国居民消费价格指数与房地产市场的价格指数之间的相关性进行统计分析,结果表明两者之间存在显著的正相关。文章进而分析了我国近年来房地产市场的发展对CPI的主要影响渠道,并指出房地产市场的理性调整有利于控制当前的通货膨胀。     

Macroeconomic uncertainty and performance in the European Union

We use a very general bivariate GARCH-M model and monthly data on EU countries covering the 1962–2003 period to test for the impact of real (output growth) and nominal (inflation) macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Our evidence supports a number of important conclusions. First, in the majority of countries uncertainty regarding the output growth rate is related to the average growth rate and the effect in several countries is negative. Second, in half of the cases there is no significant relationship between inflation uncertainty and output growth performance. Third, inflation and output uncertainty have a mixed effect on inflation. Nevertheless, considerable evidence for the Cukierman–Meltzer hypothesis is obtained. Our conclusions are based on adopting both a structural and a reduced-form bivariate GARCH model. Finally, we also find statistically significant evidence of regime switching for both inflation and output growth volatility throughout the sample.