我国民间融资研究最新进展及述评

本文从经济学、法学、哲学伦理三个角度对民间融资的研究文献进行了系统梳理,专家学者从不同角度,基于不同学说和理论,对其存在的效果、影响及地位等方面展开了较为深入的分析和探讨,但仍存在不足之处,需要进一步加强对民间金融的定量分析和比较研究,以适应当今民间金融蓬勃发展之势。     

Contract enforcement and the size of the informal economy

This paper describes a model where the size of the informal sector decreases as the degree to which financing contracts can be enforced in the formal sector rises. Agents who choose to operate in the informal sector can evade taxes, but they have no access to official means of contract enforcement. Numerical simulations of the model suggest that lax tax enforcement alone does not suffice to generate a large informal sector. Contractual imperfections, on the other hand, can generate a large informal sector and account for several distinguishing features of the organization of production in developing economies. I would like to thank Tim Kehoe, Ed Prescott and Manuel Santos for their guidance, and seminar participants at ITAM, the Universidad Torcuato di Tella and the University of Montréal for their valuable comments. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and may not reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.     

我国城镇正规就业与非正规就业工资差异的实证研究——基于分位数回归与分解的发现

本文利用2009年CHNS数据对我国城镇正规就业与非正规就业的工资差异进行实证研究,分位数回归与分解的结果表明:正规就业与非正规就业的教育回报率的差异,随工资分布由低端到高端呈现先升后降趋势,经验—工资线在正规就业与非正规就业明显不同,前者为单调递增的线性关系,后者为倒"U"形曲线关系;正规就业与非正规就业的工资差异主要是由中低端的工资差异引起的;在工资分布中低端和歧视等非市场因素是工资差异的主要原因,而在工资分布高端,工资差异主要来自于教育和经验等个人禀赋差异。     

Informal Sector and Manufacturing Location: In Search of the Missing Links

Abstract

Although the informal sector is very large and unevenly distributed within developing countries, its relative size and location have not been investigated from the perspective of location models. This paper builds a modified Core–Periphery model where formal and informal firms compete in consumer markets. The model suggests that in a peripheral region, where informal goods constitute a competitive alternative to formal goods, a larger critical mass of workers is needed for the formal sector to become profitable. Informal sector competitiveness, however, also increases formal firms' sensitivity to home market effects. Thus, indirectly, a competitive informal sector can foster formal manufacturing agglomeration.

RÉSUMÉ Bien que le secteur informel soit très étendu et distribué de façon irrégulière dans les pays en voie de développement, son envergure et sa distribution relatives n'ont fait l'objet d'aucune étude sur le plan de modèles de localisation. La présente communication crée un modèle « centre–périphérie » modifié, dans lequel des entreprises officielles et non officielles rivalisent sur des marchés de consommation. D'après ce modèle, dans une zone périphérique où les produits informels constituent une alternative à des produits officiels, une masse critique de travailleurs plus importante est nécessaire afin que le secteur officiel devienne rentable. Toutefois, la compétitivité du secteur informel accro??t également la sensibilité des entreprises officielles à des effets sur le marché interne. En conséquence, un secteur informel compétitif peut, indirectement, encourager une agglomération de fabrication officielle.

EXTRACTO Aunque el sector informal es muy amplio y está irregularmente distribuido dentro de los países en desarrollo, su tamaño relativo y localización no se han investigado desde la perspectiva de modelos de localización. Este estudio construye un modelo modificado de centro–periferia donde empresas formales e informales compiten en mercados de consumo. El modelo sugiere que, en una región periférica donde las mercancías informales constituyen una alternativa competitiva a las mercancías formales, el sector formal necesita una mayor masa crítica de trabajadores para ser rentable. No obstante, la competitividad del sector informal también aumenta la sensibilidad de las empresas formales a los efectos del mercado doméstico. Por lo tanto, indirectamente, un sector informal competitivo puede fomentar la aglomeración de la industria manufacturera formal.

     

The dynamics of parallel economies. Measuring the informal sector in Mexico

The existence of parallel economies that operate in the shadows of informality within most Latin American countries is widely recognized by the economic literature. However, its composition, size and effects on economic growth are still open questions. In this paper, we estimate the size and the evolution of the Mexican informal economy in the last three decades using a vector error correction model. In addition to the standard explanatory variables traditionally used in the currency demand approach, we include remittances given their relevance in the Mexican economic system. The results indicate that informality prior to the late 1980s accounted for at least two thirds of GDP, while stabilizing around one third of GDP in the last decade. Furthermore, our estimates provide evidence of a positive long-run relationship between informality and economic growth.     

Tax structures in developing countries: Many puzzles and a possible explanation

Tax policies seen in developing countries are puzzling on many dimensions, given the sharp contrast between these policies and both those seen in developed countries and those forecast in the optimal tax literature. In this paper, we explore how forecasted policies change if firms can successfully evade taxes by conducting all business in cash, thereby avoiding any use of the financial sector. The forecasted policies are now much closer to those observed.     

Some deadweight losses from the minimum wage: the cases of full and partial compliance

This paper highlights the social costs from non-price rationing of the labour force due to the minimum wage. By short-circuiting the ability of low reservation-wage workers to underbid high-reservation wage workers, the minimum wage interferes with the market's basic function of grouping the lowest cost workers with the highest productivity firms. The present paper models the deadweight loss that society bears when high reservation-cost workers displace low reservation-cost workers. When firms can evade part or all of the minimum wage, an extra deadweight loss arises. Firms with high evasive ability but low productivity may displace firms with low evasive ability but high productivity.     

我国中小企业的融资模式研究

我国民营中小企业已成为国民经济和社会发展的重要力量,但其发展常陷入融资困境,我国的融资模式存在很大的局限性。中小企业只有在一个法律法规体系完善、金融体系和信用担保体系健全的金融环境中,才能形成可行的融资模式。中小企业亟需顺应金融环境、市场制度的变化,不断创新,创造符合自身发展的融资模式,进行多元化融资,形成充足的资金流,促成企业的长足发展,才能在竞争激烈的市场中不断做大做强。     

Under what institutional conditions does overseas business knowledge contribute to firm performance?

We examine the extent to which the impact of the overseas business knowledge transferred by returnee entrepreneurs on firm performance is conditional on institutional factors. The findings show that informal institutional differences between the home and host countries strengthen the positive impact of overseas business knowledge on the performance of returnee-founded firms. There is a complementarity between informal institutional differences and local government policy support which jointly enhance the positive impact of overseas business knowledge. However, a well-developed local business infrastructure substitutes for the impact of informal institutional differences on the relationship between overseas business knowledge and returnee venture performance.     

Local institutions,external finance and investment decisions of small businesses in Vietnam

This study investigates the impacts of local institutions, external finance, and their joint effects on firm investment in Vietnam. Investment decisions are classified into two categories: fixed asset investment and non-fixed asset investment. Analysing a set of 1.3 million firm-year observations of businesses in Vietnam (2006–2016), we find evidence that local institutions (both formal and informal) positively influence fixed asset investment but negatively affect non-fixed asset investment. Also, we find that informal loans are positively associated with both types of firm investment while bank loans are negatively associated with both types of firm investment. More importantly, we find that the quality of local institutions is able to moderate firms’ external financing behaviour, leading to increased investment values.