经济不确定衡量及对股票市场的影响——基于网络信息检索技术

基于网络信息检索频率的基础上,提出了一种新的衡量经济不确定程度的方法。文章的研究动机来自于经济心理学的研究成果,即经济主体往往会通过信息检索的增加来反映不确定程度的增加。网络信息检索的优点主要体现在检索面广和即时性上,并且与文字相比,网络信息检索更能够客观地反映人们的行为。研究结论显示,以网络信息检索为基础的衡量经济不确定程度的方法与其他若干相关指标相比具有明显的优势,并且这种方法与整个股票市场的收益率和波动率都有着紧密的联系。     

Ex ante contracting with endogenously determined communication plans

Summary. In this paper we introduce a new model of ex ante contracting for economies with asymmetric information to examine endogenously determined communication plans for information sharing in the interim stage. In contrast to the models used in previous research, in the present model agents negotiate not only on a contract of state contingent allocations but also on a communication plan, a set of rules describing how agents will reveal part of their private information at the interim stage to execute the trade contracts. We prove a result about the nested structure of the set of allocations implementable by various communication plans and establish the existence of core strategies for this cooperative game under various regularity conditions. Received: 4 March 1998; revised version: 17 September 1999     

Compulsory versus voluntary voting: An experimental study

We report on an experiment comparing compulsory and voluntary voting institutions in a voting game with common preferences. Rational choice theory predicts sharp differences in voter behavior between these two institutions. If voting is compulsory, then voters may find it rational to vote insincerely, i.e., against their private information. If voting is voluntary so that abstention is allowed, then sincere voting in accordance with a voter's private information is always rational while participation may become strategic. We find strong support for these theoretical predictions in our experimental data. Moreover, voters adapt their decisions to the voting institution in place in such a way as to make the group decision accuracy differences between the two voting institutions negligible. The latter finding may serve to rationalize the co-existence of compulsory and voluntary voting institutions in nature.     

Limit to improvement: Myth or reality?: Empirical analysis of historical improvement on three technologies influential in the evolution of civilization

The evolution of civilization appears to have primarily resulted from continuous improvement made possible by technological advances. A group of social evolutionists and economists have identified, among others, energy, transport, as well as information and communication to be the three most influential technologies. On the other hand, a number of eminent scholars have cited several forces, natural, physiological, technological, as well as environmental which can place a limit on on-going improvement.The purpose of this paper is to empirically explore the continuous improvement process as well as the limit placed on these three technologies. Using the framework of both connected and disconnected multiple technology S-curves and X-factor, historical improvement data on these three elements have been analyzed. The results of our analysis indicate that improvement in general has continued without limit mainly due to a series of emerging new technologies. These emerging technologies can be either connected or disconnected from the existing mature technologies. Our preliminary analysis shows that much of the past improvement comes from new technologies that on first serious application appear to be substantially superior from earlier technologies. In addition, enormous continuous improvement, which has accompanied both connected and disconnected new technologies appear to have played the critical role in sustaining the evolution of civilization. The paper discusses a number of policy implications and suggests topics for future research.     

Markets for information: Of inefficient firewalls and efficient monopolies

In this paper we study market environments where information is costly to acquire and is also useful to potential competitors. Agents may sell, or buy, reports over the information acquired and choose their trades in the market on the basis of what they learnt. Reports are unverifiable – cheap talk messages – hence the quality of the information transmitted depends on the conflicts of interest faced by the senders. We find that, when information has a prevalent horizontal differentiation component, in equilibrium information is acquired when its costs are not too high and in that case it is also sold, though reports are typically noisy. The market for information is in most cases a monopoly, and there is underinvestment in information acquisition. We also show that regulatory interventions, in the form of firewalls, only make the inefficiency worse. Efficiency can be attained with a monopolist selling differentiated information, provided entry is blocked.     

董事会治理特征:上市公司信息披露违规的经验证据

作为公司治理核心的董事会具有信息披露监督的权利与义务,董事会治理水平直接关系到信息披露违规与否,深入研究二者的关系和互动机制,有助于探索提高公司治理有效性和会计信息披露质量的共性措施。本文在研究董事会治理特征的整体框架的基础上,以会计信息披露违规作为终极研究对象,选择2004-2006年间受证监会及证券交易所处罚的上市公司为样本,实证检验了董事会治理与会计信息披露违规的内在关系,为改善董事会治理水平、抑制信息披露违规提供经验证据。     

Technological innovation and knowledge network in Asia: Evidence from comparison of information and communication technologies among six countries

South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, China and India have become much larger force in the world economy. Due to the enormous contribution of the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) in economic growth, this study investigates four main issues related to technological innovation and knowledge network in ICT among six countries. First, indicators of technological innovation were evaluated and used to compare capability of technological innovation in ICT between the six countries. Secondly, differences in innovation configurations among six countries were manifested. Thirdly, relative innovation strengths of these six countries were examined in five sub-technological fields. Finally, this study consists of analyzing the interactions into knowledge network among them; moreover, this study manifests the difference of knowledge network in five sub-technological field of ICT. The empirical findings of this study, based on analysis of a patent and citation dataset comprised of all patents granted by the U.S. Patents and Trademark Office (USPTO) to assignees in six countries from 1976 to 2006, are helpful to understand the comparative development of technological innovation of ICT in six countries.     

不同经济发展水平下创新要素对产业创新绩效的影响及政策启示

基于不同经济发展水平研究视角,选取新一代信息技术产业为研究对象,采用改进的Griliches-Jaffe知识生产函数模型,运用面板数据回归分析方法,利用《中国高技术产业统计年鉴》（2007-2017年）中电子及通信设备制造业统计数据进行实证研究,探究创新要素投入与创新绩效的关系。结果发现：对于新一代信息技术产业,在不同经济发展水平地区投入相同创新要素对创新绩效的影响存在一定差异,尤其体现在技术投入要素作用效果上。这就意味着,对经济发展水平不同地区使用相同的创新要素推动产业创新发展是低效的;不同发展水平地区有针对性地分配创新要素,对于实现创新要素最大效率、推动战略性新兴产业布局与发展尤其关键。最后,提出相应政策启示及建议。     

Information flows within and across sectors in Chinese stock markets

We examine the patterns of information flows within and across sectors of the two Chinese stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen during 1994–2001. Using the generalized forecast error variance decomposition, we find a high degree of interdependence, indicating that the sectors are highly integrated and sector prices reflect information from other sectors. Industry is the most influential sector in both exchanges, while Finance in Shenzhen is the least integrated with other sectors. Implications of the findings for investors and policymakers are also discussed.     

农业科技信息服务平台运行模式研究——以湖南省星火科技12396服务平台为例

采取高效的运行方式是发挥农业科技信息服务平台效能的关键。文章以湖南省星火科技12396服务平台的运行实践为例,从农业信息平台的服务终端、服务方式、服务流程、服务规范等方面,对典型的农业科技信息服务平台运行模式进行了探索研究。