基于啄序理论的上市公司资本结构优化

由于我国资本市场的不完善,以及国企改制造成的股权高度集中、内部人控制问题,导致我国上市公司出现股权融资偏好.要通过解决股权分置,大力发展债券市场,加强股权融资的法律监督,积极构建有效的并购市场等措施,优化上市公司的资本结构.     

The international co-movements of Finish stocks

This paper provides new empirical evidence on the international co-movements of Finnish stocks. The vector autoregression (VAR) approach indicates that US and especially Swedish stock markets lead Finnish stock market returns by approximately one or two months. The results based on international market models indicate that the returns of individual Finnish stocks are significantly positively related to those of Sweden, while the relation between Finnish and US returns is significantly lower. The relation seems to vary clearly between industries, some industries being related to US markets as well. Significant time-series instability is reported in the results, however.     

Linkages among European and world stock markets

Causal relations and dynamic interactions among equity returns in ten countries for the period 1983–1994 are analysed. An innovation accounting approach based on a multivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model is used to estimate the proportion of each market return's forecast error attributable to innovations in foreign market returns. Three major results appear. The variance decompositions indicate a strong degree of economic interaction among stock markets. The US stock market has a considerable influence on stock market performance in almost every country, while there is no substantial inter-continental influence from the European stock markets on the world's two largest equity markets in New York and Tokyo. Finally, the pattern of the impulse-response functions illustrates a rapid international transmission of stock market events, supporting the hypothesis of international stock market efficiency.     

Calendar effects and the pricing of risk: the UK evidence

For some time there has been a puzzle surrounding the seasonal behaviour of stock returns. This paper demonstrates that there is an asymmetric relationship between risk and return across the different months of the year. The paper finds that systematic risk is only priced during the months of January, April and July. Variance risk and firm size are priced during several months of the year including January. An analysis of the relative behaviour of size based securities reveals that firm capitalization makes a valuable contribution to the magnitude of risk premiums.     

Performance of closely held firms in Russia: evidence from firm-level data∗

This paper evaluates the impact of ownership concentration on firm performance in a weak institutional environment. Specifically, using new survey evidence, we seek to appraise quantitatively the performance of block-holder-controlled firms in Russia and to identify, within the domain of corporate governance theory, factors that may explain such performance. We find evidence of negative association between the size of the dominant owners’ shareholding and performance parameters such as investment, capacity utilization, and profitability. At the same time, we establish that control structures with multiple, large shareholders increase efficiency. The ambiguity of the effects of ownership concentration suggests that country-specific factors play an important role.     

Ownership structure and dividend policy: Evidence from Italian firms

Abstract

This paper reports on empirical investigations into the relationship between dividend policy and ownership structure of firms, using a sample of 139 listed Italian companies. Ownership structure in Italy is highly concentrated and hence the relevant agency problem to analyse seems to be the one that arises from the conflicting interests of large shareholders and minority shareholders. This paper therefore attempts to test the rent extraction hypothesis by relating the firm’s dividend payout ratio to various ownership variables, which measure the degree of concentration in terms of the voting rights of large shareholders. The hypothesis that other non-controlling large shareholders may have incentives to monitor the largest shareholder is also tested. The results of the empirical analysis reveal that firms make lower dividend payouts as the voting rights of the largest shareholder increase. Results also suggest that the presence of agreements among large shareholders might explain the limited monitoring power of other ‘strong’ non-controlling shareholders.     

Institutional block-holdings of UK firms: do corporate governance mechanisms matter?

Using a sample of UK firms, we find that institutional block-holding is negatively associated with directors’ ownership and is positively associated with board composition, suggesting that institutional block-holders regard directors’ ownership and board composition as substitute and complementary control mechanisms, respectively. We also show that UK institutional block-holders prefer smaller firms and firms with a shorter listing history. The presence of institutional block-holders is associated with smaller boards and lower trading liquidity. Finally, our results indicate that the investment preference of UK institutional block-holders varies with the level of their shareholding.     

The changing and relative efficiency of European emerging stock markets

The martingale hypothesis is tested for 15 European emerging stock markets located in Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Russia, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Turkey and the Ukraine. For comparative purposes, the developed stock markets in Greece, Portugal and the UK are also included. Rolling window variance ratio tests based on returns and signs and with wild bootstrapped p-values are used with daily data over the period beginning in February 2000 and ending in December 2009. The fixed-length rolling sub-period window captures changes in efficiency and is used to identify events which coincide with departures from weak-form efficiency and to rank markets by relative efficiency. Overall, return predictability varies widely. The most efficient are the Turkish, UK, Hungarian and Polish markets; the least efficient are the Ukrainian, Maltese and Estonian stock markets. The global financial market crisis of 2007–2008 coincides with return predictability in the Croatian, Hungarian, Polish, Portuguese, Slovakian and UK stock markets. However, not all markets were affected: the crisis had little effect on weak-form efficiency in stock markets located in Greece, Latvia, Romania, Russia and Turkey.     

Stock returns,velocity dynamics and inflation volatility

ABSTRACT

Our model relates the variability of stock returns to the variability of consumption velocity and shows that real stock returns tend to co-vary negatively with expected inflation in a period (or regime) of low and stable inflation and to co-vary positively with expected inflation in a period (or regime) of high and volatile inflation. Long-run real stock returns are shown to be positively related to expected inflation. Our empirical results for 20 countries provide consistent support for our propositions, indicating that the standard deviation of the annual inflation rate roughly equal to 10% is the dividing line between negative and positive return-inflation relations.