我国股票市场功能的实证分析

本文认为,辩证、客观地认识我国股票市场并确定股票市场发展方向,对我国经济发展具有非常重要的意义。文章利用1987～2003年的数据对我国股票市场与经济增长的关系及我国股市功能进行实证分析。研究发现,境内外股票筹资率的上升对资源配置效率的改善和经济增长具有积极的作用;而由于市盈率过高和传导机制失灵,流通市价与GDP比率的上升对经济增长有明显的负作用。因此,证券市场发展规划既要大力促进境内外股票筹资率的上升,又要适当控制泡沫与过度投机,从而推进证券市场健康稳定发展。     

The effects of new firm formation on regional development over time: The case of Great Britain

This paper re-examines the link between new firm formation and subsequent employment growth. It investigates whether it is possible to have the wrong type of entrepreneurship—defined as new firm formation which leads to zero or even negative subsequent employment growth. It uses a very similar approach to that of Fritsch and Mueller (Regional Studies, 38(8), 961–976, 2004), confirming their findings that the employment impact of new firm formation is in three discrete phases. Then, using data for Great Britain, the paper shows the employment impact of new firm formation is significantly positive in the high-enterprise counties of Great Britain. However, for the low-enterprise counties, it shows that new firm formation has a negative effect on employment. Of the 15 low-enterprise regions, eight are Scottish (of nine Scottish regions in our data base) and three are North East Counties (of four). Our findings imply that having the “wrong type of entrepreneurship” is indeed possible.

The Influence of Entrepreneurial Risk Assessment on Venture Launch or Growth Decisions

Entrepreneurs are thought to engage in riskier behavior than nonentrepreneurs, yet little empirical evidence supports that intuitively appealing notion. We argue instead that differences in information, not risk aversion, may explain the decision to launch or grow a venture. We separately test risk taking propensity and risk assessment. We hypothesize that entrepreneurs will not differ from nonentrepreneurs on risk taking propensity. Additionally, we propose and test a model of risk assessment. The sample size for this exploratory study is n=53 with 30 respondents declaring themselves as entrepreneurs and 23 declaring themselves as nonentrepreneurs. The study’s design is a simulation. Each respondent is provided with data on a potential acquisition that would result in either the launch of a new venture or significant growth for an existing firm. Consistent with the hypotheses, the results show no difference between entrepreneurs and nonentrepreneurs on the risk taking measure. We also find that we can predict entrepreneurial behavior based on risk assessment. We close with a discussion of limitations and directions for future research.     

Potential Growth of the US Economy: Will the Productivity Resurgence Continue?

This paper analyzes the sources of U.S. productivity growth through 2004 and presents medium-term projections for the U.S. economy. We attribute a substantial portion of productivity gains over the past decade to production and use of information technology equipment and software. In the most recent years, we also identify a growing contribution from sources outside the technology- producing sectors. Our base-case projection for the GDP growth rate is almost exactly three percent. We emphasize the substantial range of uncertainty by presenting an optimistic projection of 3.5 percent and a pessimistic projection of only 1.9 percent. JEL Classification D240,E230     

Entrepreneurship,Innovation and Economic Growth: Evidence from GEM data

Studies on the impact of technological innovation on growth have been largely mute on the role ofnew firm formation. Using cross-sectional data on the 37 countries participating in GEM 2002, this paper uses an augmented Cobb–Douglas production to explore firm formation and technological innovation as separate determinants of growth. One area of interest is the contrast between different types of entrepreneurial activities as measured using GEM Total Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA) rates – high growth potential TEA, necessity TEA, opportunity TEA and overall TEA. Of the four types of entrepreneurship, only high growth potential entrepreneurship is found to have a significant impact on economic growth. This finding is consistent with extant findings in the literature that it is fast growing new firms, not new firms in general, that accounted for most of the new job creation by small and medium enterprises in advanced countries.     

Technology spillover through trade and TFP convergence: 135 years of evidence for the OECD countries

Using a new dataset on imports of technology and total factor productivity (TFP) over 135 years for the OECD countries, this paper tests whether knowledge has been transmitted internationally through the channel of trade. The empirical estimates show that there is a robust relationship between TFP and imports of knowledge and that 93% of the increase in TFP over the past century has been solely due to imports of knowledge. Furthermore, it is shown that knowledge spillovers have been an important contributing factor behind the TFP convergence among the OECD countries over the period 1870 to 2004.     

FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets

In this paper, we examine the various links among foreign direct investment (FDI), financial markets, and economic growth. We explore whether countries with better financial systems can exploit FDI more efficiently. Empirical analysis, using cross-country data between 1975 and 1995, shows that FDI alone plays an ambiguous role in contributing to economic growth. However, countries with well-developed financial markets gain significantly from FDI. The results are robust to different measures of financial market development, the inclusion of other determinants of economic growth, and consideration of endogeneity.     

代理成本、成长性与上市公司债务的绩效

本文采用不同的代理成本和成长性指标划分了不同的样本区间,对杠杆比率和债务期限结构与企业盈利的关系进行了检验,实证发现在国有控股、高股权集中度和高流通股比例这三种情况下,负债的负效用相对较小,而债务期限结构的正效用相对大小则并不一致。     

Invariances and Diversities in the Patterns of Industrial Evolution: Some Evidence from Italian Manufacturing Industries

This work explores and compares some basic properties of corporate growth process at both aggregate manufacturing level and disaggregated sectoral levels. Using an extensive dataset on Italian manufacturing firms, we investigate which properties of firm growth dynamics are robust under disaggregation. We compare the results obtained with three different definitions of firm size, namely total sales, number of employees and value added. Our analysis suggests that while different sectors are characterized by significant differences in firm size distributions, in the degrees of concentration and in the autoregressive structure of the growth processes, there are also regularities which hold across all of them, such as the approximate unit root nature of the growth process and the power exponential shape of the growth rates density. Together, these “stylized facts” suggest challenging puzzles on the drivers of corporate growth and the resulting industrial structures.     

An information-based trade off between foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment

The paper develops a model of foreign direct investments (FDI) and foreign portfolio investments (FPI). FDI enables the owner to obtain refined information about the firm. This superiority, relative to FPI, comes with a cost: a firm owned by the FDI investor has a low resale price because of asymmetric information between the owner and potential buyers. The model can explain several stylized facts regarding foreign equity flows, such as the larger ratio of FDI to FPI inflows in developing countries relative to developed countries, and the greater volatility of FDI net inflows relative to FPI net inflows.