我国存款保险制度“显性化”研究

存款保险制度具有稳定金融体系、保护存款人利益、降低金融风险等功能。通过对隐性存款保险制度与显性存款保险制度的比较,和对我国建立存款保险制度的障碍的分析显示,建立显性的存款保险制度是我国金融体制改革的必然要求。     

新侵权责任法实施背景下环境责任保险发展的博弈分析

如何发展环境责任保险,使其更好地促进地方环境保护,是当前社会的一个热点问题。本文通过经济学的重要工具博弈论(Game Theory)来对上述的环境责任保险系统进行一个层层深入的分析,在做了一定的外部假设条件下,一共提供了四阶段的动态博弈模型,其中一阶段分析表明企业在无外部约束的情况下必然会选择污染型生产;二阶段分析表明在有环境责任保险的参与后,污染成本转为由保险公司所承担,企业的行为没有受到约束;三阶段分析模型经过修正后使得保险公司可以采用一个威胁,即可以拒绝为污染型生产进行赔偿;四阶段分析表明只有政府的参与才能使企业的生产行为受到完全的约束。针对各阶段分析的结果,本文结尾提出了相应的建议。     

我国农村养老保险制度创新的若干思路

农村养老保险制度的创新对于提高农民生活水平,拉动农村需求,构建城乡和谐社会具有重大意义。本文提出和探讨农村养老保险制度创新的原则和目标、实施机制以及支持措施。     

关于完善我国农业保险制度的思考

农业保险是世界各国普遍采用的管理农业风险、降低农业生产不确定性的重要措施。农业保险市场失灵现象在世界各国普遍存在。本文从农业保险的特点和主要类型出发,概述了全球农业保险的发展态势和典型经验,以及我国农业保险的发展概况,结合农业保险研究进展对我国农业保险发展存在问题和挑战进行讨论。为建立多层次农业保险体系,应当明确界定我国农业保险的目标,厘清与宏观经济目标的区别,制定农业保险发展的长期战略性规划;注重农业保险创新的科学性、有效性验证,避免农业保险创新催生新的风险;改革农业保险核损的组织形式,提高农户分散经营背景下的农业保险经营效率;加强微观层面的研究,切实提升农业保险需求;深入全面地研究政府支持农业保险的效率和效果,动态调整支持力度,丰富支持农业保险的方式。     

Who is more important,parents or children? Economic and environmental factors and health insurance purchase

The existing research indicates that insurance demand is affected by the policyholder’s occupation, family economy, urbanization level, and insurance coverage. Using micro data of insurance purchase at the individual level, this study investigates the influence of economic and environmental factors on the priorities of health insurance purchase decision. The results reveal that the more developed the economy and the more financial knowledge people possess, the more the latter tend to prioritize health insurance for their children. Furthermore, the study investigates the influence of air pollution on the decision to purchase health insurance. If the air pollution level is high, policyholders prioritize obtaining insurance for their children. Our research on the order of insurance purchase indicates that Chinese families have a lack of support from their children, and the function of family pension is gradually weakening. Our research also reveals that families are willing to spend money on the insurance of their children. Therefore, to solve the problem of health and old-age security for the elderly, it is more effective to promote health insurance by considering families as a unit     

What does a term structure model imply about very long-term interest rates?

We address two empirical issues related to the long end of the yield curve based on euro swap rates. First, for maturities longer than 20 years we find evidence for an ‘excess’ downward slope that cannot be explained by convexity. Second, volatility at the very long end of the yield curve is larger than predicted by no-arbitrage models. We construct a model-based arbitrage-free extrapolation of the yield-curve and compare it to the regulatory discount curve. Because of near-zero mean reversion, there is no convergence towards an ‘ultimate forward rate’ and convexity effects cause the arbitrage-free extrapolations to have slightly downward sloping curves. The low level of mean-reversion also implies that the volatility of long-term rates does not decline relative to the 20-year volatility. Therefore, we conclude that the mean-reversion and resulting smoothing adopted by the regulatory curve is much too strong.     

Knowing when to splurge: Precautionary saving and Chinese-Canadians

Why do household saving rates differ so much across countries? This micro-level question has global implications: countries that systematically “over-save” export capital by running current account surpluses. In recipient countries, interest rates are therefore too low and financial stability is put at risk. Existing theories argue that saving is precautionary; however tests of these theories are limited to cross-country comparisons and the results are mixed. We report the findings of an original survey experiment. Using a simulated financial saving task implemented online, we compare the saving preferences of a large and diverse sample of Chinese-Canadians with other Canadians. This comparison is instructive given that Chinese-Canadians migrated from, or descend from those who migrated from, a high-saving environment to a low-saving, high-debt environment. We also compare behavior in the presence and absence of a simulated “welfare state”, which we represent in the form of mandatory insurance. Our respondents exhibit behavior in the saving task that corresponds to standard economic assumptions about lifecycle savings and risk-aversion. We find strong evidence that precautionary saving is reduced when a mandatory insurance is present, but no sign that Chinese cultural influences, represented in either linguistic or ethnic terms, have any effect on saving behavior. Overall, the results suggest that Chinese “over-saving” is likely to be addressed when more generous welfare state policies are put in place.     

Digital force majeure: The Mondelez case,insurance, and the (un)certainty of attribution in cyberattacks

Insurance companies typically secure themselves under force majeure exclusions against the unpredictability brought about by acts of war. If a company were to be attacked by a nation-state in physical space—hit with a missile or by aerial bombing—there would be fairly clear carve-outs so their insurance company could exclude such an incident from coverage. But the same is not always true in cyberspace. This article examines an extreme outlier case in the world of cyberattacks and insurance—that is, the losses suffered by the U.S.-based food and beverage company Mondelez as a result of the NotPetya cyberattack—and scrutinizes just how far force majeure exclusions can be applied in cyberspace. The article attempts to reveal the significance of the legal qualification of a cyberattack and its attribution to a state for insurance coverage in both general insurance policies, like the one the Mondelez case stemmed from, as well as in insurance policies targeted to cover cyber risk.     

灵活就业人员医疗保险参与及受益归属——基于逆向选择和正向分配效应的双重检验

当前,灵活就业人员医疗保险发展不充分与不平衡的问题格外突出,这不仅会制约医保制度公平性与可持续能力的提高,同时会阻碍经济社会的全面、协调和可持续发展。本文运用中国劳动力动态调查数据(CLDS),研究灵活就业人员参加医保的决定因素以及受益归属,从而为新时期医保制度顶层设计提供决策依据。结果表明:一方面,无论是在参保决策还是险种决策阶段,灵活就业人员的健康风险显著正向影响参保状态,说明逆向选择效应显著存在;另一方面,低收入的参保人利用了更多优质的医疗服务,获得了更多的医保基金补偿,并显著改善了健康状况,因此医保发挥了积极的正向分配作用。但是过高的保障水平,在改善医疗可及性的同时会激发道德风险,从而加剧逆向选择问题并阻碍正向分配效应,对更加公平可持续医保制度的建立造成负面影响。     

Non-discriminating renegotiation in a competitive insurance market

A variant of the Rothschild-Stiglitz model of a competitive insurance market is considered, where each uninformed firm is allowed to renegotiate the contracts that its customers initially sign, subject to the restriction that renegotiated contracts be offered to all the firm's customers. Such non-discriminating renegotiation is shown to weaken the profitability of cream skimming to the extent that there exists a unique equilibrium outcome. This outcome is that of Miyazaki and Spence i.e., the incentive-compatible pair of zero-profit contracts, if efficient; and the incentive-compatible, zero-profit pair of contracts maximizing low-risk utility, otherwise.