公司税收规避、税率持续性与股票收益波动率

从税率平稳性角度看,避税活动是否会增加税率波动性进而给企业带来高风险是一个值得探讨的重要问题。从动态视角研究发现,避税是一种策略性行为,低实际税率的企业相比高实际税率的企业,其税率在长时期内能够保持平稳。此外,避税活动并不一定会带来未来税率和股票收益的波动性。这说明公司通常采用持续、稳定的税收策略,不会带来公司风险的激增。进一步研究发现：节税率的波动性与公司未来股票收益波动存在着显著正相关,即当避税引起税率波动较大时,会带来公司股票收益风险的增加。     

The relative influence of price and non-price factors on short-term retail deposit quantities?

This study explores how price and non-price factors influence change in the quantity of short-term retail deposits held by depository institutions. The analysis is undertaken for a sample of UK building societies over 23 years using a disaggregated data set with a two-stage econometric procedure involving system estimators in a panel framework using seemingly unrelated regression, generalised method of moments and an ordinary least-squares fixed effects estimators to control for contemporaneous correlation and endogeneity concerns. Price factors examined include the policy or base rate and retail deposit interest rates set by individual building societies and non-price factors including the branch network and the number of deposit accounts offered by individual building societies. The cost of funds, one non-price factor and occurrence of mergers are consistently significant influences of retail deposit quantities. We conclude risk assessment of retail deposit quantity and monetary policy transmission would benefit from considering both price and non-price factors, rather than only price factors.     

Financial Integration in Asset and Liability Holdings in East Asia

In this article, we examine the evolution of intra-East Asian financial integration from 2001 to 2013. Most existing studies on this topic look primarily at asset holdings; we examine liability holdings as well. Using the International Monetary Fund’s Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey data for equities, long-term debt, and short-term debt, our analysis generally supports the conventional wisdom that East Asian countries are more financially integrated with global financial centers than they are with each other. This is true for both asset holdings and liabilities and is confirmed by an econometric analysis based on financial gravity equations. However, the gap between global integration and regional integration has narrowed for asset holdings over time but not for liability holdings. The results of additional econometric analysis indicate that diversification of liability holdings can mitigate financial instability due to global financial shocks. More precisely, diversification was associated with smaller exchange rate depreciation during the quantitative easing taper tantrum of 2013. These results point to a possible benefit from strengthening regional financial integration. Deeper regional integration would reduce dependence on global financial markets for funding and hence vulnerability to global shocks.     

Financial Development,Interest Rate Liberalization,and Macroeconomic Volatility

This article examines the relationship between financial development, interest rate liberalization, and macroeconomic volatility in fifty-six emerging and developed economies over the period 1980–2009. We find that financial development plays a significant role in dampening the volatility of macroeconomic growth rate, but up to a limit. The more the interest rate is liberalized, the more likely that financial development can stabilize the economy. Particularly, interest rate liberalization has a more positive influence on emerging and developing countries. Financial development and interest rate liberalization can also alleviate the influence of external shocks. They mutually enhance their functions as economic stabilizers.     

人民币升值影响我国企业竞争力实证研究

2005年7月汇率改革以来,人民币持续升值,对我国外向型企业的进出口有较大影响。尤其是对作为国民经济支柱产业的汽车行业影响深远,而汽车零部件的进出口额远远多于汽车整车,因此本文选择41家汽车零部件上市公司作为研究对象,通过对相关的面板数据进行检验和回归分析,从而研究人民币升值对于企业竞争力的影响。研究结论表明,人民币升值对企业盈利能力以及营运能力有显著正影响,而对企业成长能力没有显著影响。     

Conditional interest rate risk and the cross‐section of excess stock returns

Differences in excess stock returns can be rationalized by their sensitivities to conditional interest rate risk. Value stocks are particularly sensitive to upside movements in interest rate growth, while growth stocks react strongly to downside movements in interest rate growth. Consistent with the basic asset pricing theory, the upside interest rate risk commands a negative premium which is higher than the premium associated with the downside interest rate risk. Upside beta pertains its explanatory power after controlling for exposure to regular unconditional interest rate and various sources of financial and conditional macroeconomic risk.     

Asymmetric stabilizing impact of international reserves

This article studies international reserves’ nominal exchange rate stabilizing impact in emerging markets and developing countries, with a particular focus on its nonlinearity and asymmetry across different states of the economy. Using the fixed-effects and dynamic panel threshold models, we find the reserves to short-term debt threshold ratio after which the marginal stabilizing effect of reserves begins to fall during tranquil times. Such diminishing returns, however, do not appear to exist even at the excessive level of reserves during the global financial crisis, partly justifying precautionary demand for international reserves. These results call for extending reserve pooling or swap arrangements to enhance efficiency of reserve management by holding adequate, rather than excess, international reserves with an access to emergency lending during the crisis.     

The association between the severity of chronic kidney disease and medical costs among patients with type 2 diabetes

Aims: Examine healthcare costs across chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages for US patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

Materials and methods: IQVIA Real World Data Adjudicated Claims linked electronic medical records and insurance claims from January 1, 2012 through March 31, 2017 were used for this retrospective study. Adults diagnosed with T2D and comorbid CKD were included. General linear models incorporating splines were constructed, and information from these regressions were used to inform the relationship between medical costs and CKD. Multivariable analyses controlled for patient characteristics, vital signs, general health, prior medication use, prior visit to specialists, index A1c, and year of index date.

Results: There were 6,645 individuals who met the study criteria. Results generally indicate sharp increases in annual total medical costs and non-drug medical costs in the 1?year post-period for patients with Stage 4 or 5 CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]?≤?30?mL/min/1.73 m²) with each 1 point reduction in eGFR from 30 associated with an increase of $1,870 in all-cause total medical costs (p?<?0.0001) and $1,805 of all-cause non-drug medical costs (p?<?0.0001). Similarly, each point decline below 30?mL/min was associated annual cost increases of $1,701 for CKD-related total medical costs, $1,695 for CKD-related non-drug medical costs, $173 for diabetes-related medical costs, and $187 for diabetes-related non-drug medical costs (all p?<?0.0001).

Limitations: The investigation included only patients with medical insurance and laboratory test results, and results may not be generalizable to all T2D patients with CKD. The methodology allowed us to determine associations, not causation, and potential confounders, such as duration of diabetes, diet, exercise, or social support, could not be assessed.

Conclusions: Results indicate there are sharp and significant increases in medical costs among T2D patients with Stage 4 and 5 CKD compared to those with earlier stages of CKD.     

基于气候区划的中国建成区绿地率 区域差异研究

气候是影响城市绿地的基础性自然因素,定量研究气候对建成区绿地率的影响,利于合理调控城市绿地建设。以中国县级市及以上城市为样本,综合运用标准差、变异系数和锡尔系数等方法,探究1996—2015年不同气候区划建成区绿地率区域差异状况。结果表明：1)从发展水平看,不同气候区划具显著差异,热带高于温带,湿润、半湿润区高于半干旱、干旱区,其中,热带与湿润区、半湿润区城市重合度高,是气候优势区位;2)从差异度看,不同气候区划差异度具明显区别,温带差异度高于热带,干旱、半干旱区高于湿润、半湿润区;3)从差异分解看,温度带间建成区绿地率不平衡对全国总差异的影响度大于干湿区间,温度带间差异是我国总体差异的主要原因。以期为揭示气候对城市绿地建设水平的影响作用提供理论依据。