Integrating livestock feeds and production systems into agricultural multi-market models: The example of IMPACT

The various ways in which livestock production systems can be incorporated into economic, partial-equilibrium, multi-market models are presented, and the challenges outlined. A particular focus and illustrative case is livestock feed. Foremost among the challenges is the reconciliation of scientific understanding of livestock feed requirements and production characteristics with the available national data. Another challenge is in estimating herd structures. An economic, multi-market modeling approach is presented which has been widely used in policy analysis and advocacy, and an account is given of the necessary recent enhancements for addressing livestock.     

外债管理的国际经验与启示

本文研究了发达经济体（美、欧、澳、韩）和发展中经济体（俄、印）的外债发展历史和外债管理实践,并基于外债管理的国际经验提供可行性建议,旨在为加快推进我国的外债管理体制改革提供有益借鉴。     

Mapping tax compliance: Assemblages,distributed action and practices: A new way of doing tax research

Tax compliance denotes the act of reporting and paying taxes in accordance with the tax laws. Current social science scholarship on tax compliance can almost entirely be divided into behavioural psychology analyses and critical tax studies. This article, which presents two cases of how tax compliance is constructed, challenges the explanatory reaches of today's social science approaches, arguing that an alternative approach to understanding tax compliance is worthwhile exploring. This other choice of approach, inspired by actor–network theory (ANT), adopts a more practice-oriented focus that studies tax compliance where it takes place as well as what it is made of. Consequently, this article argues that tax compliance is a socio-material assemblage and that complying is a distributed action. The article concludes by highlighting how an ANT approach contributes to the further theoretical development of social science studies of taxation.     

A ‘panoptical’ or ‘synoptical’ approach to monitoring performance? Local public services in England and the widening accountability gap

This article highlights how recent reforms to the auditing and assessment of local public services in England suggest there will be a shift from panoptical to ‘synoptical’ monitoring approaches. This is because the UK Government has abolished its centralised monitoring regime and instead required local authorities to publish a range of financial and performance datasets online, ostensibly so that citizens can hold organisations to account directly. However, the complexity and raw nature of these data, along with the sidelining of professional auditors, will result in most citizens being either unable or unwilling to undertake this task. As such, the proposed ‘synoptical’ approach will not materialise. Indeed, other legislative changes will mean that outsourcing firms effectively become the new, unaccountable observers of local public sector bodies within an enduring panoptical system. In many cases these companies will then assume responsibility for delivering the same services that they have assessed.     

Implications of domestic price insulation for global food price behavior

Rapid changes in global food prices in recent years are widely viewed as a serious threat to global development. While various sources of price instability in agriculture have been identified, little attention appears to have been given to the importance of changes in trade policies that insulate domestic prices from world markets as a source of volatility in world prices. A contribution of this paper is to show that these interventions are dynamically more complex than simple proportional insulation. Insulation against an initial price increase in world prices increases the magnitude of that increase, while subsequent adjustments to the level of protection change the fundamental nature of price volatility. We find such policies are widespread and increase the volatility of world prices while not reducing the volatility of domestic prices because of the collective action problem involved in this form of policy intervention.     

The determinants of the volatility of returns on cross-border asset holdings

Using both panel and cross-sectional models for 28 industrialized countries observed from 2001–2009, we report a number of findings regarding the determinants of the volatility of returns on cross-border asset holdings (i.e., equity and debt). Greater portfolio concentration and an increase in assets held in emerging markets lead to an elevation in earning volatility, whereas more financial integration and a greater share held in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries and by the household sector cause a reduction in the return volatility. Larger asset holdings by offshore financial corporations and non-bank financial institutions cause higher market volatility, although they affect volatility in the equity and bond markets in the opposite way. Overall, both panel and cross-sectional estimations provide very similar results (albeit of different magnitude) and are robust to the endogeneity problem.     

Speculative dynamics and price behavior in the Shanghai Stock Exchange

This article examines the extent to which the trading behavior of heterogeneous investors manifests in stock price changes of asset portfolios which constitute the Shanghai Stock Exchange. There are three major findings that materialize. Firstly, reliable statistical evidence of a negative relation between the conditional first and second moments of the return distributions of stock prices lends support to the volatility feedback effect. Secondly, ‘feedback’, or momentum-type investors, are not present in this market as is often detected from the daily price changes of other industrialized markets. Finally, trade volume as a proxy for ‘information-driven’ trading suggests that such investors play a statistically significant role in stock price movements. Parameter estimates from this latter group of investors imply that a rise in stock prices from a high volume trading day is more likely than a rise resulting from a low volume trading day.     

External balances,trade flows and financial conditions

This paper studies how changing expectations concerning future trade and financial conditions are reflected in international external positions. In the absence of Ponzi schemes and arbitrage opportunities, the net foreign asset position of any country must, as a matter of theory, equal the expected present discounted value of future trade deficits, discounted at the cumulated world stochastic discount factor (SDF) that prices all freely traded financial assets. I study the forecasting implications of this theoretical link in 12 countries (Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, The United States and The United Kingdom) between 1970 and 2011. I find that variations in the external positions of most countries reflect changing expectations about trade conditions far into the future. I also find the changing forecasts for the future path of the world SDF are reflected in the dynamics of the U.S. external position.     

Central banks and macroeconomic policy choices: Relaxing the trilemma

Macroeconomic policy choices in open economies are constrained by the trilemma according to which the objectives of exchange rate stability, monetary independence and capital mobility cannot be attained jointly. This paper shows that foreign exchange interventions provide an effective instrument to relax the trilemma. An active reserve policy allows central banks to pursue independent monetary and exchange rate policies when the capital account is liberalised.We use the framework of the portfolio balance model to show that exchange market interventions may substitute for capital controls. Both allow a country to achieve the other two objectives of the trilemma. Our empirical analysis of a large country panel data set covering the period 1970–2010 confirms this theoretical insight: the weighted sum of the three trilemma objectives increases in the degree of foreign exchange market intervention. The capacity to relax the trilemma constraint has increased over time and has been most effective in emerging markets.     

Trade credit and the joint effects of supplier and customer financial characteristics

We examine how access to bank credit affects trade credit in the supplier–customer relationships of U.S. public firms. For identification, we use exogenous liquidity shocks to supplier firms in the form of staggered changes to interstate bank branching laws. Using a variety of tests, we show that supplier firms with greater access to banking liquidity offer more trade credit to their customers. We also show that when bank branching restrictions are relaxed in the supplier’s state, the supplier–customer relationship is more likely to survive.