建立中国-东盟自由贸易区对中国农产品出口的影响及其对策

针对中国与东盟农产品贸易的现状,采用显性比较优势分析中国农产品的优势,以及CAFTA的建立对中国农产品出口的影响,就如何扩大中国农产品出口提出了对策和建议。     

我国生产性服务贸易的发展及国际竞争力分析

生产性服务作为服务业和加工业的粘舍剂．以服务业为中心将产业价值链的各个环节串连起来，成为先进工业化国家后工业化的重要特征。因而，生产性服务贸易也就成为服务贸易的重要内容与发展趋势。本文对我国生产性服务贸易进行了实证分析，结果表明：我国生产性服务贸易发展速度较快，但贸易结构落后，贸易逆差逐年扩大，竞争力较弱，影响到作为世界加工厂的我国制造业。因此，扩大生产性服务贸易，改善生产性服务贸易结构，是提高我国生产服务贸易国际竞争能力的重要举措。     

WTO与西部大开发战略的几个问题

中国加入WTO后，西部大开发战略的许多问题亟须在理论上深化，比如：西部大开发战略在中国加入WTO的前后是否有所不同，西部大开发的根本目标和实质会发生什么变化，东西部地区之间的差距会不会进一步扩大，西部开发的手段主要有哪些，西部地区能不能接替东南沿海地区淘汰的资本密集型和劳动密集型的产业，等等。     

对当代国际私法学说的再认识——兼论我国国际私法学说的创立

对当代国际私法学说及其实践情况的研究表明,我国的"国际交往互利说"缺乏国际互动的条件,无法运作。"利益增进说"才是合乎我们需要的国际私法学说。     

论贸易政策合理性的评价标准及反倾销的不合理性

目前，国内学界对反倾销的合理性问题存在着激烈的争论。合理性问题是一个评价问题，合理性评价的前提是合理性的评价标准。国内学界在对反倾销合理性问题进行争论的时候忽略了这一前提，即没有给反倾销合理性确定一个比较明确的评价标准，这就使这种评价失去了依据。文章从合理性的含义出发，提出了贸易政策是否具有合理性的三个评价标准，并在此基础上对反倾销的不合理性进行了分析和探讨。     

云南深度融入“一带一路”构建对外开放新局面研究

云南深度融入“一带一路”构建对外开放新局面,有利于建设好面向南亚东南亚开放辐射中心,有利于构建“大循环、双循环”新发展格局。通过分析云南深度融入“一带一路”建设的现状、存在的问题,提出构建对外开放新局面的意见建议:系统设计深度融入“一带一路”,制定促进对外开放新局面的政策措施,积极补齐基础设施建设短板,加快建设与周边国家互联互通的国际大通道,与沿线国家协商共建自由贸易网络体系,做强各类对外开发开放平台,形成协作高效的开放平台体系,积极推动中缅经济走廊建设取得实质性进展,为深化中国与东盟的合作打造样板示范。     

Multivariate volatility forecasts for stock market indices

Volatility forecasts aim to measure future risk and they are key inputs for financial analysis. In this study, we forecast the realized variance as an observable measure of volatility for several major international stock market indices and accounted for the different predictive information present in jump, continuous, and option-implied variance components. We allowed for volatility spillovers in different stock markets by using a multivariate modeling approach. We used heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR)-type models to obtain the forecasts. Based an out-of-sample forecast study, we show that: (i) including option-implied variances in the HAR model substantially improves the forecast accuracy, (ii) lasso-based lag selection methods do not outperform the parsimonious day-week-month lag structure of the HAR model, and (iii) cross-market spillover effects embedded in the multivariate HAR model have long-term forecasting power.     

Dimensions of quality upgrading

The impact of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies’ trade integration with European markets on CEE trade structures has been studied extensively. These studies frequently observe a quality upgrading of CEE exports. In this paper we consider three dimensions of quality upgrading: upgrading across industries, upgrading across different quality segments within industries and, finally, product upgrading within quality segments inside industries. For the analysis we partition industries into quality segments based on EU‐15 import unit values. The results for ten CEE countries (comprising the CEE‐5, the Baltics and South East Europe) and thirteen industries suggest fundamental differences, both across country groups and across the three different notions of quality upgrading. The CEE‐5 show no evidence of entering a ‘low‐quality trap’ in all three dimensions. By contrast, while there is a general catching‐up process across industries and inside quality segments, the second notion of low‐quality specialization may be applicable within the high‐tech industries to the performance for the Baltics and South East Europe as a group.     

Costly pollution abatement, competitiveness and plant location decisions

The NAFTA debate included assertions that were used as arguments against trade and investment liberalization. (1) Trade liberalization increases production sensitivity to environmental restrictions (‘environmental dumping’?). (2) Investment liberalization, leading to multinational firms, similarly increases the production and welfare response to costly environmental restrictions. I find that: (1) Trade liberalization increases production sensitivity to costly environmental restrictions, but arguments against liberal trade on welfare grounds do not follow. (2) Multinationals do not increase the production-reallocation effect caused by environmental restrictions or regulations. In addition, I find a great difference between restrictions that fall on fixed costs and restrictions that fall on marginal costs.     

Self-enforcing international environmental agreements with a stock pollutant

In this paper the stability of an International Environmental Agreement (IEA) among N identical countries that emit a pollutant are studied using a two-stage game. In the first stage each country decides noncooperatively whether or not to join an IEA, and in the second stage signatories jointly against nonsignatories determine their emissions in a dynamic setting defined in continuous time. A numerical simulation shows that a bilateral coalition is the unique self-enforcing IEA independently of the gains coming from cooperation and the kind of strategies played by the agents (open-loop or feedback strategies). We have also studied the effects of a minimum participation clause finding that for this case a self-enforcing IEA just consists of the number of countries established in the clause.JEL Classification: C73, D62, Q28 Corresponding author : Santiago J. RubioThis paper is based on chapter four of Begoña Casinos Ph. Dissertation. Financial support from the Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, the Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología under grant BEC2000-1432 and Fundación BBVAis gratefully acknowledged. We also appreciate the helpful comments of three anonymous referees, whose suggestions improved the paper. Regarding any remaining inadequacies, the usual caveat applies.