Extraordinary politics and durable reform: lessons from trade liberalisation in Estonia and Poland

This article analyses the significance of the period of extraordinary politics after the fall of communism for policy reform. It examines under what circumstances policy reforms enacted during such periods are durable by comparing trade liberalisation in Poland and Estonia in the early 1990s. The article relates this question to the historical institutionalist debate surrounding critical junctures, gradual change and the politics of stability and change. It argues that trade policy reform enacted during periods of extraordinary politics is most likely to be durable if it is associated with deeper changes in structural conditions, such as dominant ideas, interests and institutions.     

非正规部门竞争、政治寻租与新创企业市场创新

市场创新是新创企业生存发展的根本,然而新兴经济体背景下新创企业的市场创新受到多种特定因素的影响。基于制度基础观,利用世界银行中国企业调查数据,实证考察了非正规部门竞争和政治寻租对新创企业市场创新的影响。研究发现,非正规部门竞争和政治寻租均对新创企业的市场创新具有显著的正向影响,但政治寻租未强化非正规部门竞争对企业市场创新的正向影响;非正规竞争导致的对知识产权保护的需求并非是引致新创企业进行政治寻租的主要原因,资金需求和躲避严苛繁琐的政府管制的需要是引诱企业参与政治寻租的主要原因。因此,政策制定者不必过分担忧非正规部门竞争对新创企业的负面影响,而应通过推进企业注册登记便利化和加强知识产权保护逐步消除非正规经济;要通过持续深化市场化改革和简政放权消除企业寻租的动机。     

Price versus quantity in a mixed duopoly with foreign penetration

We characterize the endogenous competition structure (in prices or quantities) in a differentiated duopoly between a public firm that maximizes domestic welfare and a private firm that can be owned by domestic or foreign investors. The market for which they compete can be domestic or integrated: in the first case Bertrand competition emerges endogenously and in the second case Cournot competition can emerge if the fraction of domestic consumers in the integrated market is low enough. We also determine the optimal degree of foreign penetration showing the optimality of a partial foreign ownership. Finally, we extend the model to increasing marginal cost confirming the robustness of the results.     

Trading spaces: Calculating embodied Ecological Footprints in international trade using a Product Land Use Matrix (PLUM)

Nations import and export biophysical resources. With many ecosystems worldwide under mounting stress, countries may be increasingly interested in knowing the extent and origin of their ecological imports and dependencies. In this paper the Ecological Footprint is used as a tool to measure the biophysical (as opposed to financial) value of international trade flows. This paper attempts to answer the following question: How large of an Ecological Footprint does a given country exert inside the borders of each of its trading partners? Records in the UN COMTRADE bilateral trade database are multiplied by a matrix of per-product Footprint yield coefficients to translate from values in dollars and tonnes to units of hectares. The results show that the largest interregional flows are from Latin to North America, and from North America to Asia-Pacific. Grouping countries by GDP, high and middle income countries appear in Footprint terms to trade predominantly with other high and middle income countries and much less with low income countries.     

Budget impact analysis of secukinumab versus adalimumab in the treatment of ankylosing spondylitis

Background: Biologic treatments have enhanced the treatment outcomes of patients with active ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Until recently, TNF-alpha-inhibitors have been the only biologics approved for the treatment of active AS. The objective of this study was to assess the potential financial impact of the first non-TNF-alpha biologic secukinumab (fully human IL-17A-inhibitor) vs adalimumab (TNF-alpha-inhibitor) in the treatment of AS in Finland.

Materials and methods: In this model-based budget impact analysis, patients were treated either with secukinumab (150?mg) or adalimumab (40?mg). The number of patients and market share of different biologics were based on national reimbursement registry data. Adalimumab was the most commonly used biologic treatment for AS, and in the base case analysis all adalimumab patients are assumed to switch to secukinumab. Response rates were based on a matching-adjusted indirect comparison between secukinumab and adalimumab. Patients not achieving response were switched to another biologic treatment.

Results: Treating AS patients with secukinumab instead of adalimumab leads to potential savings of 18.2 million euros within a 5-year time period. The total costs within the follow-up time were 59.5 million euros and 77.7 million euros with and without secukinumab, respectively. According to sensitivity analyses, a higher adoption rate of secukinumab corresponds to higher potential savings.

Conclusions: Secukinumab is a cost-saving treatment option compared with adalimumab in the treatment of AS in Finland. More patients could be treated with a biologic by allocating resources more efficiently.     

The ‘curse of dimensionality’ resolved: The effects of climate change and trade barriers in large dimensional modelling

Solving large scale optimisation problems over space and time quickly generates a computational impasse, termed the ‘curse of dimensionality’. This severely limits the practical use of economic models, especially for determining the effects of climate change and protectionist trade policies. In this paper, we employ an innovative approach to solving (otherwise unsolvable) large scale systems through the use of parallel processing methods and a proper ordering of variables and equations in a ‘Nested Doubly Bordered Block Diagonal’ form. We illustrate how the approach can be used to solve an intertemporal CGE model with more than 500 million equations. Using existing damage functions, the framework allows us to determine the impact of climate change on long-run economic growth for 112 countries as a result of the effect of sea-level rise on land endowments, variation in crop yields and productivity and shifts in the demand for energy and transportation. We also compare our solution to more common (and smaller dimensional) recursive methods, in terms of both the economic effects of climate change and potential increases in trade barriers, showing the power and efficiency of our computational approach and parallel processing routine.     

“定量宽松”政策的实质及对中国的影响

在当前的国际经济与金融危机环境下,美国等西方国家通过扩大货币的发行量大规模增加时资本市场货币的供应,货币政策的重心向"定量宽松"政策倾斜.关于"定量宽松"货币政策的实质以及对中国的影响,我国经济学界已经展开了广泛的热议.本文认为,对这一问题应据据中国人民银行行长周小川提出的构建"超主权国际储备货币"的建议进行更深入探讨,本文在现有研究基础上,对此进行了进一步分析.     

哈萨克斯坦核能的多元国际合作

哈萨克斯坦的“核能”日益成为哈萨克斯坦发展本国能源开采业的重要部门,也是哈萨克斯坦外汇收入的主要来源之一。核能多元外交成为哈萨克斯坦发展经济与建设“国际核燃料库”的能源出口大国的政治手段。     

基于人力资本价值链理论的中国城市国际人才集聚研究

城市国际人才争夺战由来已久并不断升级,但针对中国城市国际人才集聚水平、影响因素和差异化政策供给的研究鲜见。以“国际人才集聚指数-国际人才集聚影响因素-国际人才集聚政策”为研究主线,以中国36个主要城市为研究对象,创新性地通过构建人力资本“投入-过程-产出”价值链理论模型进行实证研究,结果表明：中国城市国际人才集聚指数排名分为3个差异显著的层级。其中,第二和第三层级之间无较大差距,但与由北京、上海组成的第一层级相比大幅落后。中国城市国际人才集聚影响因素分化明显,第一类城市的主要影响因素为全球城市品牌文化;第二类城市为创新型经济发展;第三类为外资传统工商业企业和产业集聚。对应地,中国城市国际人才集聚政策供给围绕外资传统工商业国际人才集聚、高端生产性服务业国际人才集聚、多样性和包容性国际人才文化氛围营造存在三大差异化选择。首次构建人力资本“投入-过程-产出”价值链模型,为从机理上深入探索中国各类城市国际人才集聚模式及提升路径奠定了基础。     

外贸顺差与通货膨胀

在G函数这个理论范式里,融入描述货币固定数量的约束条件,依据经济运行中必定遵循的固定替代弹性规律,借助对偶理论,可以得出关于通货膨胀的定义。这个定义是真实的和精确的,它的发现可以为进一步的有关特殊性分析奠定基础。在一般经验水平上,出于对症状的观察和诊断,对通货膨胀曾产生过若干种猜想和推测。其中,将外贸顺差推断为通货膨胀的主要原因,便是其中之一。在关于通货膨胀的一般科学定义里,可以对此特殊推断做出审视和分析。从市场分解的角度来看,要达此目的,首先需要得出能耦合国际贸易的初始结构,再融入货币固定数量的约束条件,最后归入关于通货膨胀的分析路径。由于G函数的形式就是一个有约束的贸易函数,进行市场分解是很容易的。因此,要达到这样的目的也是很容易的。