Orange County Bankruptcy: Financial Contagion in the Municipal Bond and Bank Equity Markets

We examine the spillover wealth effects of the Orange County, California bankruptcy announcement in December 1994 on municipal bonds, municipal bond funds, and bank stocks. This bankruptcy is prominent because of unprecedented losses and because it was caused by a highly leveraged derivatives strategy rather than a shortage of tax revenues and excess spending. We find contagion in the bond market with significantly negative abnormal returns for municipal bond funds without direct exposure to Orange County and for non‐Orange County municipal bonds. In addition, our findings suggest the contagion spills over to the common stocks of investment and commercial banks that deal in or use derivatives; however, the equities of banks unexposed to derivatives are not affected.     

整合版CITE平台的通讯实现机制

阐述和分析CITE平台的通讯机制及产生故障的原因，并针对性地提出了解决方案。     

中国财政性教育投资的实证分析与对策研究

在现代市场经济社会里 ,几乎所有国家的政府投资在为全社会提供教育服务方面都起着主导作用。我国财政性教育投资严重不足 ,而且教育投资结构很不合理 ,因此必须改变教育投资观念 ,切实、稳定增加财政的教育投资 ,优化财政教育投资结构     

论项目管理对投资效益的支持作用

投资活动具有独特的运行规律，政府和企业在管理模式上现存的缺陷不利于投资效益的实现，有必要在实际 工作中引入项目管理的模式，项目管理以效益为直接目标，以项目为核心，以竞争为手段，以协调为基础，以法律为保障，辅以现代化的项目管理方法和技术，为投资效益的实现铺垫了良好的基础，具有坚实的支撑作用。     

通用ATS实现技术研究

我国武器装备通用ATS(自动测试系统)经历了从引进、仿制到自行研制的过程，但是目前通用ATS总的局面是通用ATS不通用，这种局面主要是由于国内对通用ATS实现技术缺乏统一认识造成的。基于此，本文研究了与开发通用ATS密切相关的标准／规范、硬件配置技术、接口技术、集成测试软件开发环境技术。本文的研究结果适用于所有开发通用ATS的项目。     

中国外商直接投资的区位决定因素分析:城市数据

本文以全国210个地级以上城市为对象,分析了外商直接投资的区位决定因素。本文采用OLS和逐步回归分析方法以及2002年的横截面数据,在以往研究的基础上选择四项区位决定因素包括三种成本因素、三种市场因素、四种集聚因素和四种制度因素进行实证研究。结果表明,劳动力成本对各城市的外商直接投资的区位选择影响不明显,而市场规模、基础设施、教育和研究开发条件以及地方金融规模对外商直接投资的区位选择的影响具有显著性。本文的逐步回归分析结果还表明,就东部地区而言,能源条件和市场规模是较重要的区位决定因素;就中西部地区而言,市场规模、基础设施、教育和研究开发条件以及地方金融成为较重要的区位决定因素。     

Probability theory in fuzzy sample spaces

This paper tries to develop a neat and comprehensive probability theory for sample spaces where the events are fuzzy subsets of The investigations are focussed on the discussion how to equip those sample spaces with suitable -algebras and metrics. In the end we can point out a unified concept of random elements in the sample spaces under consideration which is linked with compatible metrics to express random errors. The result is supported by presenting a strong law of large numbers, a central limit theorem and a Glivenko-Cantelli theorem for these kinds of random elements, formulated simultaneously w.r.t. the selected metrics. As a by-product the line of reasoning, which is followed within the paper, enables us to generalize as well as to bring together already known results and concepts from literature.Acknowledgement. The author would like to thank the participants of the 23rd Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory for the intensive discussion of the paper. Especially he is indebted to Professors Diamond and Höhle whose remarks have helped to get deeper insights into the subject. Additionally, the author is grateful to one anonymous referee for careful reading and valuable proposals which have led to an improvement of the first draft.This paper was presented at the 23rd Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory, Linz, Austria, February 5–9, 2002.     

Robustness issues in multilevel regression analysis

A multilevel problem concerns a population with a hierarchical structure. A sample from such a population can be described as a multistage sample. First, a sample of higher level units is drawn (e.g. schools or organizations), and next a sample of the sub‐units from the available units (e.g. pupils in schools or employees in organizations). In such samples, the individual observations are in general not completely independent. Multilevel analysis software accounts for this dependence and in recent years these programs have been widely accepted. Two problems that occur in the practice of multilevel modeling will be discussed. The first problem is the choice of the sample sizes at the different levels. What are sufficient sample sizes for accurate estimation? The second problem is the normality assumption of the level‐2 error distribution. When one wants to conduct tests of significance, the errors need to be normally distributed. What happens when this is not the case? In this paper, simulation studies are used to answer both questions. With respect to the first question, the results show that a small sample size at level two (meaning a sample of 50 or less) leads to biased estimates of the second‐level standard errors. The answer to the second question is that only the standard errors for the random effects at the second level are highly inaccurate if the distributional assumptions concerning the level‐2 errors are not fulfilled. Robust standard errors turn out to be more reliable than the asymptotic standard errors based on maximum likelihood.     

The Measurement of Consumption Efficiency Considering the Discrete Choice of Consumers

In this study we propose a mathematical definition of the consumption efficiency of multi-attribute products in the price–quality space. A new model, the discrete Range Adjusted Measure (RAM) model, is suggested as an empirical tool to measure the level of consumption efficiency. We further discuss the effect of consumption efficiency on the innovation incentive. Empirical work is made for the mobile phone market. We expect that the consumption efficiency concept will contribute to the extension of the traditional framework of production efficiency analysis on the one hand and to the understanding of the nature of innovation in a technology-intensive market on the other hand.JEL Classification: C67, D11, D12, D21     

不同企业下物流信息系统的实现

本文首先讨论了不同企业建立物流信息系统的前提要求，然后指出了不同企业下构建物流信息系统的基本原则和模式，并提出了在国内的特殊环境下企业构建物流信息系统的几点建议。