对外直接投资的贸易效应研究--基于中国经验的实证分析

对外直接投资与出口贸易之间的关系一直是相关理论和实证研究的争论主题。运用引力模型,对中国FD I的贸易效应进行实证分析表明:中国对东道国的直接投资促进中国对东道国的出口,但对从东道国的进口却具有替代效应。因此,大力促进中国对外直接投资,是促进中国的对外出口、绕开东道国贸易壁垒的重要途径。     

未来三十年我国及省际人口变动趋势

分析了我国人口的变动特点,并对未来三十年我国及省际人口的变动趋势作了预测,论述了我国未来人口的空间分布变动特点。     

Inter-enterprise arrears in economies in transition

In the context of economies in transition, the paper argues that an excessive liquidity squeeze could throw the economy into a persistent state of low economic activity. In such bad equilibrium, enterprise transactions become largely demonetized, with a chain of arrears, a form of involuntary credit, spreading over the entire system. The empirical analysis of the Romanian experience seems to support the view advanced in the paper.     

武汉市制造业吸引外商投资对策研究

本文在课题组对武汉市制造业吸引外商投资的现状调查、对国内外吸引外商投资的经验和教训的总结以及对国际资本流动特点和趋势分析的基础上,提出了武汉市制造业吸引外商投资的若干政策建议,其内容包括:提高武汉市整体经济发展水平;领悟WTO规则,转变政府职能;提升武汉市制造业产业集聚能力;为招商引资创造各种条件;注重对吸引外资的管理等等.     

The hidden value of air transportation infrastructure

Air transportation is a key strategic asset in that it provides access to markets and thereby enables the economic development of nations. Thus, in order to maintain their competitiveness in a global economy, countries must invest in air transportation infrastructure to ensure their ability to meet current and future demand for aviation services. The objective of this paper is to develop and illustrate a methodology for evaluating the strategic value of air transportation infrastructure, in particular the benefits associated with the ability to react quickly to changes in the market. The hypothesis is that by recognizing and taking advantage of this strategic value, it may be possible to design better policies for aviation infrastructure delivery.The methodology developed here uses system dynamics to model different strategies for infrastructure delivery. These strategies are defined by three variables: the amount of capacity increase, the time to deliver the capacity and the congestion threshold that triggers the need for capacity delivery. Monte Carlo simulation is used to take into account multiple sources of uncertainty. The model shows that a strategy of capacity delivery based on small increments and short response times can yield more benefits than strategies that consider large capacity increases and long response times. Furthermore, in the specific airport example considered here, it was found that a congestion threshold of 75% should be the trigger for capacity enlargements if strategies based on small capacity increments and 1 or 5 years to increase capacity are considered. The lesson for decision-makers is that congestion delays must be addressed with foresight.     

分析国际资本流动趋势调整武汉招商引资思路

如果要在更大规模上吸引外资投资于武汉市制造业,必须把握国际资本流动的特点和发展趋势,以适时制定与之相匹配的前瞻性外资战略和政策.本文在阐述国际资本流动特点的基础上总结了目前外资流动的四大趋势:中国吸引外资扩大化趋势;并购化趋势;流向政策透明地区趋势;产业集群显现优势趋势,以期对武汉市政府制定相应外资政策提供借鉴.     

五个一体化构筑浙中城市群发展平台

随着工业化、城市化进程的加速,特别是全球经济一体化进程的纵深推进,城市群竞争成为国际经济竞争的重要表现形式。建设强大的城市群已成为经济全球化背景下提升国际竞争力的关键所在。浙江中部地区城市群的崛起,对浙江中西部地区,乃至浙江全省经济社会的发展将产生深远的影响。文章通过对浙中城市群发展条件及现状的剖析,提出五个一体化的具体对策。     

南岳旅游产业结构调整及其对策研究

从南岳旅游产业结构的现状特点及其存在的主要问题分析入手，从资源、区位、市场和宏观经济条件等方面阐明了南岳旅游产业结构调整的有利条件，并得出旅游产业结构调整的主要思路是，在透当前神庙朝拜旅游的基础上，着力开拓面向城镇客源的观光、休闲、度假、康体、娱乐等旅游，大力发展入境旅游。围绕这一产业结构调整思路，提出了一系列对策与措施。     

Human capital composition, growth and development: an R&D growth model versus data

The effect of human capital composition on growth and development has been somewhat neglected in economic literature. However, evidence has suggested the importance of engineering and technical (high-tech) skills to economic growth, and international organizations have suggested their shortage in developed countries. Using a standard increasing variety growth model, we propose various measures of human capital composition that are related with economic growth and development. When compared to data, the model does well in explaining the rate of growth and the level of development as a function of these measures. “the British colonies had a better educated population (...). Education was secular with emphasis on pragmatic skills and yankee ingenuity (...). The 13 British colonies had nine universities in 1776 for 2.5 million people. New Spain, with 5 million, had only two universities (...) which concentrated on theology and law.” –(Maddison, 2001)     

广西乡村──城市转型与协调发展研究

本文揭示了“八五”期间广西乡村──城市转型发展的特征及其地理动力机制．预测未来15—25年内乡村──城乡转型发展的趋势、提出了促进乡村──城市转型与协调发展的一些对策建议。