Psychological Bias as a Driver of Financial Regulation

I propose here the psychological attraction theory of financial regulation – that regulation is the result of psychological biases on the part of political participants – voters, politicians, bureaucrats, and media commentators; and of regulatory ideologies that exploit these biases. Some key elements of the psychological attraction approach are: salience and vividness, omission bias, scapegoating and xenophobia, fairness and reciprocity norms, overconfidence, and mood effects. This approach further emphasises emergent effects that arise from the interactions of individuals with psychological biases. For example, availability cascades and ideological replicators have powerful effects on regulatory outcomes.     

基金业绩归因与投资者行为

本文以2006年1月至2016年12月中国64家股票型主动管理基金为样本,从基金净资金流变化的角度,检验了投资者决策与基金业绩结构的关系,以期更好地理解投资者行为。本文结论有:(1)整体上,投资者在衡量基金经理能力时,更关注原始超额收益率或只基于市场风险调整风险敞口,这可能与中国市场投资工具仍然不够充分、风险难以有效对冲有关;(2)机构投资者相比个人投资者对风险敞口的识别更严格;(3)简单模型的优势集中在市场波动低、投资者情绪高的时期;(4)除基金经理能力外,净资金流变化对市场风险报酬也很敏感;(5)从alpha的角度,我国基金市场仍存在“赎回异象”,可能与“处置效应”有关,仍需提升投资者对风险的认知,引导市场形成更加科学的投资观念。     

International arbitration of investment disputes: are poor and badly governed respondent states more likely to lose?

Compelling empirical evidence on whether investor–state dispute settlement (ISDS) is systematically biased against poor respondent states hardly exists. We focus on disentangling the effects of the respondent state’s per-capita income and the strength of domestic rule of law on ISDS outcomes. We find that both higher income and stronger than ‘normal’ rule of law reduce the probability of investor wins in international arbitration of disputes.     

Comovements between heavily shorted stocks during a market squeeze: Lessons from the GameStop trading frenzy

We examine the comovements between stock prices of different heavily shorted companies during a short-squeeze incident. Using the recent GameStop trading frenzy as a case study, we employ wavelet coherence analyses to determine its link with other frequently shorted stocks. We demonstrate a robust positive association between GameStop prices and the performance of high short interest indices. The bubble behavior driven by retail investor herding transmits between different stocks, even from unrelated sectors. Consequently, a single short-squeeze incident may build up into a potentially broader systemic risk, casting doubt on market integrity and stability.     

Textual sentiment of comments and collapse of P2P platforms: Evidence from China's P2P market

Textual sentiment affects the investment activities of investors in traditional financial markets. Peer-to-Peer (P2P) lending market, as one of the emerging and active Internet financial markets, has recently received considerable attention from academia. However, few related studies are available. This work examines the relationship between the textual sentiment derived from investors’ comments on P2P platforms and probability of platform collapse. We collect comments from an authoritative Chinese third-party P2P lending consulting platform and use a weakly supervised convolutional neural network to calculate the textual sentiment of each comment. Empirical results show that the extracted textual sentiment has a significant influence on a P2P platform's collapse. Furthermore, the “agreement” and “disagreement” from other investors of each comment are pivotal in predicting a P2P platform's failure. We find that the textual sentiment of comments regarding P2P platforms from investor communities provide insights into predicting platforms’ collapse in the near future.     

Auditing regulations and bank shareholders’ wealth: An international analysis

This paper examines the ability of auditing regulation to protect bank shareholders’ wealth during the time of normal growth and during the 2007–2009 global financial crises. The study uses the bank regulation database available at the World Bank website. We select a sample of 2467 banks from 107 countries for the years 1999–2009. We perform multivariate regression analyses and find that while auditing regulations enhance bank equity prices in normal growth periods, there is no evidence that auditing regulations are associated with bank share prices during the period of financial crisis. We observe similar results for both developed and emerging countries and for the common and code law countries. Our results suggest an immediate need to strengthen audit regulations so that investor confidence is more likely to persist during periods of financial downturn.     

The information content of option-implied information for volatility forecasting with investor sentiment

This study explores the effect of investor sentiment on the volatility forecasting power of option-implied information. We find that the risk-neutral skewness has the explanatory power regarding future volatility only during high sentiment periods. Furthermore, the implied volatility has varying volatility forecasting ability depending on the level of investor sentiment. Our findings suggest that the effectiveness of volatility forecasting models based on option-implied information varies over time with the level of investor sentiment. We confirm the important role of investor sentiment in volatility forecasting models exploiting option-implied information with strong evidence from in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. We also present improvements in the accuracy of volatility forecasts from volatility forecasting models derived by incorporating investor sentiment in these models.     

A survey of corporate perceptions of short-termism among analysts and fund managers

There is a popularly held view that institutional investors and stockbrokers' analysts take a short-term view when making or advising on investment decisions. Short-termism is held to be a particular problem for economies such as the US and the UK which rely heavily on stock exchanges to price securities and help reallocate resources through take-over. This is deemed to be detrimental to long-term corporate development and overall economic growth. The paper seeks to show the extent to which directors of large UK companies perceive that analysts and institutional investors evaluate their companies on short-term criteria. The role of institutional investors in the context of short-termism is important because they own a large proportion of equity. The paper then seeks to explain why some company directors appear to believe in short-termism while others do not. Hence the paper is not investigating whether ‘the City’ is short-termist but is examining the reasons why directors of large publicly quoted companies believe ‘the City’ is or is not short-termist about their company. The conclusion of this paper is that there is some evidence to support the view that ‘the City’ is perceived as being short-termist towards some companies but that the phenomenon is more narrowly focused and of lesser importance than its supporters claim.     

An empirical investigation of investor expectations in the currency market

Using a new theoretical model of investor expectations in the foreign exchange market, this research finds investor forecasts to be rational. For instance, expectations are not characterized by fat-tailed distributions that might reflect optimistic bubbles and panic. They are also found to rationally predict a correlation between exchange rates and political factors such as modeled “pain” indexes and currency bands. Most importantly, the model detects an ex-ante investor prediction of a small probability of a large currency change that empirically explains ex-post forecasting biases.