Herding behaviour in P2P lending markets

We explore lender behaviour on Renrendai.com, a leading Chinese peer-to-peer (P2P) crowdlending platform. Using a sample of around five million investor-loan-hour observations, and applying a high-dimensional fixed effect estimator, we confirm evidence of herding behaviour: the investors in our sample prefer assets that had attracted strong interest in previous periods. The herding behaviour relates to both the experience level of the investor and the length of time of an investment session on the platform. We also provide evidence of significant herding behaviour in the first hour of experienced investors’ sessions. Our results are robust to the use of alternative specifications.     

我国国际资本流动：直接投资 与非直接投资影响因素的比较研究

本文基于向量误差修正模型对1982-2010年期间我国直接投资类、间接投资类（含其他投资）、错误与遗漏及投资收益类三种类型国际资本流动的影响因素进行了实证研究。实证检验结果表明：在长期,我国三类国际资本流动与人民币对美元的实际汇率升贴水年率之间为负向变动关系,与中美利差、中美通胀之差、我国实际经济增长及人民币对美元的实际汇率预期之间为正向变动关系;在短期,三类国际资本流动与上述影响因素之间关系并非一致;实际经济增长是我国直接投资类国际资本流动的主要原因,人民币对美元的实际汇率预期是我国非直接投资国际资本流动的主要原因。     

Wealth effect and investor sentiment

This paper investigated the relationship between the U.S. stock and housing markets as well as their influence on the wealth effect of consumption and found that the stock market sentiment index can explain changes in the wealth effect. The empirical results indicate that these two markets exert a wealth effect on consumption. The estimation results of the Markov-switching model indicate two states: a state in which the stock market influences its coexistence with the housing market and a state in which the housing and stock markets are unrelated. Public optimism regarding stock market investments affects the probability of transitioning between these states.     

Structural Decomposition Analysis of Physical Flows in the Economy

Many environmental problems can be attributedto the extraction and emissions of physicalsubstances. Increasing our understanding of theeconomic and technological driving forcesbehind these physical flows can contribute tosolving the environmental problems related tothem. The input-output framework is a usefulsetting in which to integrate detailedinformation about economic structure andphysical flows. In this article a specificmethod in input-output analysis is reviewed,namely Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA).It is based on comparative static analysis,which decomposes historical changes of a policyvariable into determinant effects. SDA has beenapplied, for example, to analyze the demand andtechnological driving forces of energy use,CO₂-emissions and various other pollutantsand resources. This article examines thetheoretical aspects of structuraldecomposition, in particular those concerningphysical flows and environmental issues.Furthermore, the article includes an extensivesurvey of empirical studies.     

治理环境、股权结构与投资者关系管理

本文以2005年度中国上市公司投资者关系管理水平作为研究对象,考察了在中国证券市场上,治理环境、股权结构对投资者关系管理活动的影响.研究发现:在治理环境越好的地区,上市公司投资者关系管理活动水平越高,股权集中度与投资者关系管理水平显著负相关,第二大股东至第五大股东对控股股东的制衡作用有限,对投资者关系管理作用不显著;在政府控制的上市公司中,投资者关系管理水平较低;并且,治理环境对股权结构的治理效应具有互补的调节作用,降低股权集中度与投资者关系管理的负向效应,增强股权制衡度与投资者关系管理的正向关系;终极控制人性质不同的上市公司投资者关系管理水平受治理环境的影响存在着差异性.上述结论在一系列稳健性检验后仍成立.研究结论有助于进一步了解中国上市公司治理机制尤其是投资者关系管理的驱动因素,深化对一国内部的治理环境如何影响治理机制的研究积累.     

Do Energy Prices Affect U.S. Investor Sentiment?

The current literature has examined the effect of investor sentiment on energy prices, but no study ever has explored the validity of the reverse question. Therefore, this article explore whether energy prices (i.e., crude oil and natural gas prices) affect U.S. investor sentiment, using the methodology of quantile regression. The empirical results document that controlling for a number of U.S. macroeconomic and financial factors, there exists a statistically significant association between oil and natural gas prices and investor sentiment. However, only natural gas prices appear to retain their statistical significance over the majority of quantiles. These findings received robust support under alternative measures of the investor sentiment index.     

Investor Attention and Earnings Management around the World

This study examines the determinants of earnings management in an international setting using the limited investor attention model of Hirshleifer and Teoh ( 2003 ). The model predicts that investor attention reduces earnings management. I use analyst following, institutional ownership, and Big N auditor choice to proxy for investor attention. I have four key findings. First, I document that financial analysts curb earnings management in U.S. firms but not in non‐U.S. firms. Second, I document that institutional block‐holdings curb earnings management across the world. Third, Big N auditors reduce earnings management in U.S. firms but not in non‐U.S. firms. Fourth, I document that corporate governance mechanisms reduce earnings management in U.S. firms but not in non‐U.S. firms.     

投资者和风险投资家委托代理问题探析

运用委托代理理论对风险投资中投资者与风险投资家之间的委托代理关系进行分析,结合我国风险投资发展现状,并提出促进我国发展风险投资的建议。     

The effect of immigrants on the extensive and intensive margins of trade

This study examines the impact of immigrants on the extensive and intensive margins of South Korean exports. Since trade data contain excessive zero trade flows, we adopt recently suggested Poisson and Gamma pseudo maximum likelihoods. ???Our finding shows that immigrant stock in South Korea has significant effect on both the extensive and intensive margins of South Korean exports. Immigrants’ network seems to decrease variable as well as fixed costs of trade.     

External balances,trade flows and financial conditions

This paper studies how changing expectations concerning future trade and financial conditions are reflected in international external positions. In the absence of Ponzi schemes and arbitrage opportunities, the net foreign asset position of any country must, as a matter of theory, equal the expected present discounted value of future trade deficits, discounted at the cumulated world stochastic discount factor (SDF) that prices all freely traded financial assets. I study the forecasting implications of this theoretical link in 12 countries (Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, The United States and The United Kingdom) between 1970 and 2011. I find that variations in the external positions of most countries reflect changing expectations about trade conditions far into the future. I also find the changing forecasts for the future path of the world SDF are reflected in the dynamics of the U.S. external position.