Supporting ALARP decision making by cost benefit analysis and multiattribute utility theory

Current guidance in the UK and elsewhere indicate upper and target risk limits for the operation of nuclear plant in terms of individual risk per annum. ‘As low as reasonably practicable’ (ALARP) arguments are used to justify the acceptance or rejection of policies that lead to risk changes between these limits. The suitability of cost‐benefit analysis (CBA) and multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) are assessed for performing ALARP (‘as low as reasonably possible’) assessments, in particular within the nuclear industry. Four problems stand out in current CBA applications to ALARP, concerning the determination of prices of safety gains or detriments, the valuation of group and individual risk, calculations using ‘disproportionality’, and the use of discounting to trade‐off risks through time. This last point has received less attention in the past but is important because of the growing interest in risk‐informed regulation in which policies extend over several timeframes and distribute the risk unevenly over these, or in policies that lead to a nonuniform risk within a single timeframe (such as maintenance policies). The problems associated with giving quantitative support to such decisions are discussed. It is argued that multiattribute utility methods (MAUT) provide an alternative methodology to CBA which enable the four problems described above to be addressed in a more satisfactory way. Through sensitivity analysis MAUT can address the perceptions of all stakeholder groups, facilitating constructive discussion and elucidating the key points of disagreement. It is also argued that by being explicitly subjective it provides an open, auditable and clear analysis in contrast to the illusory objectivity of CBA. CBA seeks to justify a decision by using a common basis for weights (prices), while MAUT recognizes that different parties may want to give different valuations. It then allows the analyst to explore the ways in which different parties might (or might not) come to the same conclusion even when weighting items differently.     

Doing what comes naturally? Why we need a practical ethics of teamwork

This paper challenges the belief that teamwork is a ‘natural’ form of work organization that satisfies universal human needs such as social affiliation and self-actualization. A corollary of this belief–that teamwork is a morally superior form of work organization–unnecessarily restricts debate about the desirability and usefulness of teams because any criticism comes to be seen as a denial of our essential humanity. Using an approach inspired by Michel Foucault's concept of ‘care of the self’, I will propose a practical ethics of teamwork that allows us to appreciate the moral ambiguities of teamwork.     

居民消费能力视角下的中国经常账户顺差影响因素协整分析

持续、巨额的经常账户顺差给中国带来了一系列负面影响。彻底扭转中国经常账户失衡,迫在眉睫。文章基于居民消费能力的视角,对中国经常账户问题进行了理论和实证分析。理论研究结果表明,居民消费能力是影响中国经常账户的主要因素;实证研究结果表明,中国经常账户顺差与居民消费能力、投资率、净国外资产比率和人口抚养比存在长期动态均衡关系,其中居民消费能力是影响经常账户的重要因素且与经常账户余额/GDP呈负相关关系。最后文章提出了相关的对策和建议。     

学前幼儿英语游戏设计的几点思考

本文以语言认知理论及其监控理论为基础,探讨了幼儿英语游戏设计应以幼儿的语言发展特点为基础,注重幼儿对英语学习兴趣的培养,使英语游戏全方位、多角度、持续性的深入到幼儿的学习与生活中。     

小农体系的现代价值

小农经济虽饱受贬抑却广泛存在。在现代社会,小农经济的存在仍然根植于农业的自然特性之上,它是愈益重视的传统农业文化活态保护和传承的载体。在城市化工业化进程中,小农经济更突显了其社会功能、文化功能和生态功能。     

Afriat’s theorem for indivisible goods

We identify a natural counterpart of the standard GARP for demand data in which goods are all indivisible. We show that the new axiom (DARP, for “discrete axiom of revealed preference”) is necessary and sufficient for the rationalization of the data by a well-behaved utility function. Our results complement the main finding of Polisson and Quah (2013), who rather minimally modify the original consumer problem with indivisible goods so that the standard GARP still applies.     

Government intervention,sectoral productivity growth and structural transformation

This article examines the long-term impact of government intervention and sectoral productivity on structural transformation. We construct a multi-sector Dynamic General Equilibrium model that explicitly incorporates government intervention as a force of structural transformation. The government affects the economy through taxation and lump sum transfers. We show that in the steady state, a reduction in the tax rate and an increase in sectoral productivity will decrease the agricultural employment share, and when nonhomotheticity of preference is strong enough, these changes can also increase the share of services employment.     

欧盟特保措施法对我国纺织品的影响及应采取的对策

本文对欧盟针对中国纺织品服装出口的特保措施法及实施细则进行了详细的介绍。主要分析了欧盟对于纺织品服装贸易特保措施法,提出我国相关企业应加快产业调整和产品升级,积极发挥我国政府和行业协会的作用,中欧之间的纺织品服装贸易就将朝着积极的方向发展。     

The economic burden of advanced Parkinson’s disease: an analysis of a UK patient dataset

Abstract

Background:

To evaluate the cost burden of patients with advanced Parkinson’s disease (PD) according to the waking hours per day spent in OFF state. An analysis of resource use comprising medical services, professional care and informal care data from an observational, cross-sectional study was conducted.

Methods:

A total of 60 physicians comprising 40 neurologists and 20 geriatricians across the UK participating in the Adelphi PD Disease Specific Programme took part. There were 302 PD patients at H&Y stages 3–5. Patients were characterised according to the percentage of time per day spent in OFF state (<25%, 26–50%, 51–75%, >75%).

Results:

Average 12-monthly total costs increased according to the time spent in OFF state from £25,630 in patients spending less than 25% of their waking hours in OFF to £62,147 for patients spending more than 75% of their time in OFF. Overall, 7% of costs were attributed to direct medical care, while 93% were split between direct non-medical professional care (50%) and indirect informal care (43%).

Limitations:

Low patient numbers in the more advanced disease stages of PD led to very little or no data to directly inform some of the severe health states of the analysis. Data gaps were filled in with data derived from a regression analysis which may affect the robustness of the analysis.

Conclusion:

This study illustrates the increasing costs of advancing PD, in particular related to the time spent in OFF state, and identifies that the foremost cost burden is associated with the care needs of the patient rather than medical services.