An Essay on Accounting's Social Complexity and the Fairness Challenge/ESSAI SUR LA COMPLEXITÉ SOCIALE DE LA COMPTABILITÉ ET LE DÉFI DE LA FIDÉLITÉ DE L'INFORMATION

We are honoured to contribute our ideas to the tribute to Ross Skinner, stimulated by his 1995 CA Magazine article “Judgment in Jeopardy". Our effort is titled “An Essay” because we want to suggest an approach to the problem of judging fairness in financial reporting that Skinner raised and to explore some consequences of that approach. We include no literature references other than to “Judgment in Jeopardy", and occasionally to Homer, because we have developed the ideas in this essay specifically for this tribute and have not relied on others in doing so. There has been an enormous amount of writing about accounting standards, professional judgment, fairness, and other related topics, but rather than exploring all that, we have focused directly on Skinner's concerns and have tried to develop some consequences of those concerns. One of the issues Skinner's article raised is the possibility that a solution to the judgment problem will forever be elusive. Another is the enormous challenge that “fairness” presents in an increasingly complex world. To explore the implications of Skinner's call for judgment, we use a framework based on the relevance, reliability, and validity of accounting information as a means of addressing this challenge and the demands on social consensus that result. Since Skinner was concerned about the application of judgment to real problems, we illustrate our analysis by considering four contemporary accounting debates: principles versus rules, global convergence of accounting standards, the need for a stand‐alone Canadian standard‐setter, and accounting for stock options. We argue that ideological choices, competition among parties in society, and fundamental measurement problems support Skinner's prediction that a solution will remain elusive.     

Does judgment improve macroeconomic density forecasts?

This paper presents empirical evidence on how judgmental adjustments affect the accuracy of macroeconomic density forecasts. Judgment is defined as the difference between professional forecasters’ densities and the forecast densities from statistical models. Using entropic tilting, we evaluate whether judgments about the mean, variance and skew improve the accuracy of density forecasts for UK output growth and inflation. We find that not all judgmental adjustments help. Judgments about point forecasts tend to improve density forecast accuracy at short horizons and at times of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. Judgments about the variance hinder at short horizons, but can improve tail risk forecasts at longer horizons. Judgments about skew in general take value away, with gains seen only for longer horizon output growth forecasts when statistical models took longer to learn that downside risks had reduced with the end of the Great Recession. Overall, density forecasts from statistical models prove hard to beat.     

商业判断规则的法经济学分析

由于董事商业决策的结果具有不确定性,法律机制介入董事商业决策既不准确而且成本高昂。商业判断规则作为董事决策行为的"安全港",在制度设计上应将司法审查限制在决策程序而非内容上,使董事拥有充分的决策自由裁量权,增进整个市场的经济效率。     

Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A commentary essay

Armstrong and Graefe apply the index method to predict presidential elections. They imply that the technique is also useful for business decision making. Their idea has merit and may be relevant when the decision context is dynamic, has few prior “observations,” and where domain knowledge exists. However, Armstrong and Graefe fail to adequately explain the variable selection process, clarify the conditions when the index method is appropriate, or identify the types of problems most amenable to the index method, and fail to discuss how the index method can be calibrated to help make single option decisions.     

Forecasting methods for marketing: Review of empirical research

This paper reviews the empirical research on forecasting in marketing. In addition, it presents results from some small scale surveys. We offer a framework for discussing forecasts in the area of marketing, and then review the literature in light of that framework. Particular emphasis is given to a pragmatic interpretation of the literature and findings. Suggestions are made on what research is needed.     

审计判断偏误的形成机制与防治对策

在审计实务中需要审计人员在审计各阶段、各环节作出审计判断.审计判断的正确与否直接关系着审计结论的正确性和会计信息使用者的正确决策,而审计判断偏误的存在是导致审计判断错误的主要原因之一.因此,研究审计判断偏误的形成机制及其防治就显得十分必要了.     

经济、贸易与环境相容关系论说

经济、贸易与环境相容意指经济增长、贸易扩大没有损害环境,其判别标准包括零污染排放或者污染排放零增长、零污染遗留或者污染遗留零增长、环境自净极限等三级标准;其实现的必要条件是环境有益的结构效应和技术效应足以抵消规模效应;其测度指标包括绝对值、变化事和比率等三类指标.经济-环境、贸易-环境两对相容关系的成因不尽相同.     

Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: Enhancing the scenario method

In this paper we review and analyse scenario planning as an aid to anticipation of the future under conditions of low predictability. We examine how successful the method is in mitigating issues to do with inappropriate framing, cognitive and motivational bias, and inappropriate attributions of causality. Although we demonstrate that the scenario method contains weaknesses, we identify a potential for improvement. Four general principles that should help to enhance the role of scenario planning when predictability is low are discussed: (i) challenging mental frames, (ii) understanding human motivations, (iii) augmenting scenario planning through adopting the approach of crisis management, and (iv) assessing the flexibility, diversity, and insurability of strategic options in a structured option-against-scenario evaluation.     

The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products

The successful introduction of new durable products plays an important part in helping companies to stay ahead of their competitors. Decisions relating to these products can be improved by the availability of reliable pre-launch forecasts of their adoption time series. However, producing such forecasts is a difficult, complex and challenging task, mainly because of the non-availability of past time series data relating to the product, and the multiple factors that can affect adoptions, such as customer heterogeneity, macroeconomic conditions following the product launch, and technological developments which may lead to the product’s premature obsolescence. This paper provides a critical review of the literature to examine what it can tell us about the relative effectiveness of three fundamental approaches to filling the data void : (i) management judgment, (ii) the analysis of judgments by potential customers, and (iii) formal models of the diffusion process. It then shows that the task of producing pre-launch time series forecasts of adoption levels involves a set of sub-tasks, which all involve either quantitative estimation or choice, and argues that the different natures of these tasks mean that the forecasts are unlikely to be accurate if a single method is employed. Nevertheless, formal models should be at the core of the forecasting process, rather than unstructured judgment. Gaps in the literature are identified, and the paper concludes by suggesting a research agenda so as to indicate where future research efforts might be employed most profitably.     

论我国承认与执行外国法院判决条件的缺陷及完善

在一定条件下承认和执行外国法院判决,有利于及时保护当事人的权益以及交易安全,提高诉讼的经济效益,所以任何一国都不是无条件地承认与执行他国法院的判决。但是,为维护本国的司法制度,避免承认与执行外国法院判决带来不利结果,各国立法大都规定了承认与执行外国法院判决的条件。我国的相关对此作了规定,但是整体上来说,有关规定还是很不具体,甚至存在不合时宜之处,与发达国家的现行规定和《选择法院协议公约》中的内容相比有不完善之处。