刑事案件当庭宣判的变迁

刑事案件当庭宣判制度早在1979年刑事诉讼法立法时就已确立,但它首先被司法决策作为一个命题郑重提出来则是在1996年修法之后,至今二十余年来最高人民法院对待当庭宣判的政策变迁呈现出办案效率导向、司法公开导向和庭审实质化导向三种价值定位与政策形态,并最终形成速裁程序强制适用、简易程序优先适用、普通程序建议适用的整体布局、分层推进的方案。而当庭宣判的地方实践整体上回应了最高人民法院的政策导向,但呈现出差异化极大的两种面孔。一面是小部分典型法院打造了较高的当庭宣判率,另一面是诸多法院当庭宣判难以推进,最终定格为一种以办案效率导向为主的当庭宣判实践模式,主要适用于简单轻微案件,且司法资源配置低和高度固化,并存在较大随机性与异质性,呈现多元分化图景。2018年刑事诉讼法修法将当庭宣判实践从放任自流固化到速裁案件强制当庭宣判的制度格局,可期待当庭宣判率有所提升的实践图景,但要真正激发当庭宣判实践的革命,则还要看普通程序当庭宣判率,以当庭宣判成为常态为标志。而对当庭宣判的价值期待与政策定位应采取过程导向,当庭宣判率的“打造”还得回到打磨一套足够激励当庭宣判成为常态的程序机制上来,让当庭宣判成为实质化庭审的自然状态。     

Bracing for demand shocks: An experimental investigation

We investigate inventory ordering decisions when decision makers anticipated a demand shock. Decision makers anticipating an event have been shown to brace for an uncertain negative outcome by overestimating the likelihood of that event. Decision makers faced with a spike in demand may incur increased holding costs because they may brace, exhibiting a judgment bias, and consequently a decision bias by over-ordering inventory. Three studies span conditions of uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of a demand shock: Employing three between-subjects experiments, Study 1 investigates behavior when decision makers were faced with uncertainty in timing and in magnitude of demand at the most elemental level, manipulating holding and stock out costs. The three experimental tasks feature uncertainty about the magnitude of demand (Experiment 1.1), uncertainty about the timing of demand (Experiment 1.2), and uncertainty about both the magnitude and timing of demand (Experiment 1.3). Study 2 uses a dynamic, multi-period replenishment task and a between-subjects manipulation regarding the uncertainty of timing and magnitude of a demand shock. Study 3 also employs a multi-period decision environment, but compares behavior under a demand shock condition with that in a condition featuring only random variability. The collective results from the three studies identify a bias toward over-ordering in response to a demand shock, relative to the optimal orders. The between-subjects manipulations in Study 2 points toward a possible remedy as we found that providing information concerning the timing and magnitude of a shock ameliorated the bias. The primary revelation was that decision makers had more difficulty dealing with uncertain timing than with uncertain magnitude of demand. One implication is that it is particularly critical for retailers to carefully plan and manage how they share information with upstream supply chain partners regarding when they plan to introduce store-level promotions.     

Improving consistency in interpreting SFAS 5 probability phrases

Statement of Financial Accounting Standard No. 5, Accounting for Contingencies (SFAS No. 5), relies on verbal probability phrases to guide recognition or disclosure decisions for loss contingencies. One of the challenges facing accountants is that verbal probability terms are vague and may have multiple meanings; thus, different accountants may interpret the same probability phrase differently. Given this background, our study addresses the difficulty of interpreting verbal probability phrases and explores a simple way to improve judgment quality. Evidence from our experiment suggests that supplementing verbal probabilities with their corresponding numerical values reduces interpersonal variability in interpreting SFAS No. 5 terms.     

市盈率在股票投资分析中的适用性研究

在股票投资分析中,市盈率可以用来判断和比较股票的投资价值,又可以用来判断和比较股票的安全边际。一般而言,相比于高市盈率股票,市盈率较低的股票具有较高的投资价值和安全边际。同时,市盈率是一个可以动态变化的分析指标,它与股票的盈利能力密切相关,每股收益的增减会导致市盈率的变化。投资者不能简单地根据市盈率的高低进行股票投资,还必须深入分析股票的基本面情况,避免误入低市盈率股票投资的"便宜货陷阱"。     

Statistical formats to optimize evidence-based decision making: A behavioral approach

Statistical information is crucial for managerial decision making. The decision-making literature in psychology and mathematical cognition documents how different statistical formats can facilitate certain types of decisions. The present analysis is the first of its kind to assess the impact of statistical formats in the presentation of data from market research on both the optimality of market decisions and the time required to perform the decision-making process. An economic experiment provides the data for this study. The experiment presents statistical information in simple frequencies and relative frequencies using numerical and pictorial representations in the context of different informational environments. The key findings are that statistical information presented in terms of relative frequency formats gives rise to more accurate decision making than data presented in terms of simple frequencies, independently of the informational environments. When time is the relevant variable, numerical formats lead to a faster interpretation than pictorial ones. Since the number of factors defining the four statistical formats and the different informational environments is quite large, an orthogonal design offers a suitable experimental design. This design keeps the experiment manageable without substantially reducing its analytical power.     

Currency of Search: How Spending Time on Search is Not the Same as Spending Money

Search theories suggest that a decline in search costs increases search behavior. This relationship has been well supported by prior experimental research but not by studies conducted in retail settings. Our review of the literature suggests that this discrepancy might be driven by the fact that prior experiments typically involve money-based search whereas actual search in retail settings is usually time-based. We argue that the currency of search plays a moderating role. We find that when participants spend money on search, a decrease in search costs has a significant effect on search decisions but, when they spend time on search, a decrease in search costs either has a relatively weak effect (Experiment 1) or no effect at all (Experiment 2). Furthermore, this insensitivity in time also emerges for search payoffs (Experiment 3). We also offer evidence for the processes underlying these effects. Our results provide a new lens to examine inconsistencies in the search literature, and present a view of search that is more applicable to the retail context.     

基于模糊综合评判法的企业知识创新风险评价研究

在揭示企业知识创新全过程中所面临的诸多风险因素的基础上,构建了基于模糊综合评价法的知识创新风险评价模型。通过实践应用,证明构建的知识创新风险评价指标体系及评价方法具有系统性、科学性及可操作性,可以为企业知识创新风险管理提供决策依据。