Learning of cycles and sunspot equilibria by Genetic Algorithms

We analyze the learning behaviour of a Simple Genetic Algorithm in an overlapping generations model with one consumption good and fiat money. It is shown by simulations, that in cases where periodic equilibria exist the equilibrium of period two is learned by a Genetic Algorithm and not the monetary steady state. We further show that proper coding leads to convergence of the GA towards the sunspot equilibrium. If individuals who believe in the impact of sunspots are brought together with individuals who ignore the sunspots, the sunspot believes will in most cases drive the other individuals out of the population.     

环境库兹涅茨曲线假说及其在中国的检验

经济与环境协调发展是我国经济发展中的重大课题。本文从环境库兹涅茨曲线假说出发,利用中国各个省市区1989～2004年数据建立面板数据模型,运用固定效应模型和随机效应模型对其进行估计,以此剖析我国经济增长与环境污染水平的演变规律。结果表明,环境库兹涅茨曲线假说在我国并不成立。因此,我国不能盲目重复发达国家"先污染,后治理"的传统模式,而应该走环境与经济持续协调发展的道路。     

Seasonal decomposition and forecasting of telecommunication data: A comparative case study

In this paper, forecasting models for the monthly outgoing telephone calls in a University Campus are presented. The data have been separated in the categories of international and national calls as well as calls to mobile phones. The total number of calls has also been analyzed. Three different methods, namely the Seasonal Decomposition, Exponential Smoothing Method and SARIMA Method, have been used. Forecasts with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each method and compared with the actual data. The outcome of this work can be used to predict future demands for the telecommunications network of the University.     

The coevolution of firms and their knowledge environment: Insights from the pharmaceutical industry

What are the most effective learning strategies for firms given the characteristics of their knowledge environment? This paper addresses this question by documenting the major changes in the knowledge environment of the pharmaceutical industry, with a particular emphasis on the period since the emergence of biotechnology, and discussing the related changes in the learning strategies of established pharmaceutical firms. Both the historical analysis and a review of the empirical research on organizational learning and knowledge transfer reveal a strong emphasis of firms on external learning through interfirm collaborations and sourcing of external knowledge. This learning strategy seems to be driven by the speed, uncertainty, and dispersion of knowledge developments in the industry. Studying the connections between the knowledge environment and the effectiveness of organizational learning processes is important to understand organizational change and adaptation, and is an area of research that deserves further attention.     

健康风险冲击对农户收入的影响

本文基于中国8个省份、1354个农户、跨度15年的微观面板数据,测算了大病冲击对于农户长期收入的影响以及健康风险冲击持续的时间。我们发现:(1)大病冲击在随后的12年里对于农户人均纯收入都有显著的负面影响;(2)大病冲击对于农户的短期与中期影响使得患病户人均纯收入平均降低5%—6%;(3)健康风险冲击的长期影响可持续大约15年,并且冲击对于中低收入农户的影响更为严重。     

集团公司财务管理模式设计的探讨

本文在集团公司财务管理模式相关文献综述的基础上,提出了研究设计的框架,并据此阐述了财务管理的一般模式,分析了企业集团财务管理模式选择的影响因素,最后给出了集团公司财务管理模式的设计,以其对企业集团财务管理的实践提供指导意义。     

中国经济增长与能源消费空间面板分析

近年来面板数据广泛应用于各类统计分析,但变量的空间相关并没有引起足够的重视。本文引入空间面板回归模型研究中国各省市区经济增长和能源消费的关系。利用matlab软件及其spatial econometric模块建立和比较传统面板回归模型与空间面板回归模型,结果表明空间面板回归模型较传统面板回归模型优越,本文的研究为空间面板数据分析提供了一个应用实例。     

知识资产分类与计量方法述评

知识经济时代,企业的价值在于其拥有的知识资产,对知识资产实施有效地管理对于企业保持持久的竞争优势至关重要。将知识资产纳入现代会计进行反映与控制已经成为会计界的共识,但知识资产的计量始终是现代会计理论与实务难以逾越的障碍。本文总结了不同知识资产的计量方法,以期对知识资产的计量探索提供参考。     

应用缓冲储备模型实证检验我国居民的储蓄行为

通过应用缓冲储备模型，实证检验我国居民的教育、医疗、住房等开支的不确定性与储蓄之间的相关性，我们发现，我国居民的预防性储蓄行为不仅显著，而且以目标储蓄率为被解释变量的模型，能够比以储蓄水平为被解释变量的模型更好地解释我国居民的“预防性储蓄”动机。建立完善的医疗保障体系、改革教育体制是降低我国巨额储蓄的必经之路。     

Towards a kernel theory of external knowledge integration for high-tech firms: Exploring a failed theory test

Designing information systems (ISs) requires a thorough understanding of the organizational knowledge processes in which these systems are used. Although much is known about internal organizational knowledge processes, the understanding of external knowledge processes is less developed. Hence, this paper reflects an attempt to operationalize and test a model of the process of external knowledge integration (EKI), consisting of an identification, acquisition, and utilization stage. We utilize high-technology based firms from a variety of high-tech categories including nanotechnology based firms since these firms have critical knowledge integration needs. The results of an international survey, with responses of 317 high-tech companies, suggest that not these three EKI-stages, but four organizational effectiveness functions (goal attainment, pattern maintenance, adaptation, and integration) account for most variation in responses. These findings seem to imply that ISs that are to support the EKI-process should be designed according to organizational effectiveness functions rather than to EKI-stages. It is proposed that each organizational effectiveness function imposes different requirements on ISs because users interact differently with IS in each function.