交易所年报问询能提升上市公司盈余质量吗？——基于深交所数据的实证分析

在上市公司公告年报后,交易所会组织专业人员对年报进行审核,并针对可能的疑问向上市公司发放年报问询函,要求公司回复并公开披露。基于这一制度背景,以深交所A股上市公司为研究对象,针对2014年至2017年间年报被问询的上市公司进行研究,发现在控制其他因素后,当年度年报被交易所问询的公司,其盈余管理程度更高、盈余质量更差,表明交易所在年报审核中是有的放矢的,关注到此类盈余质量更差的公司;同时发现,国有控股公司被问询的可能性低于非国有控股公司,表明交易所在年报问询中可能存在偏倚现象;进一步检验发现在年报被问询后,公司次年的盈余管理程度依然较高,盈余质量并未得到改善,年报问询这一非处罚性监管措施在改善盈余质量方面的监管效果有限。     

美联储前瞻性指引对新兴市场国家的溢出效应研究

基于前瞻性指引溢出效应的相关理论,选取17个代表性新兴市场国家为研究对象,运用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型实证分析美联储前瞻性指引对新兴市场国家的溢出效应.结果表明:美联储前瞻性指引在短期内对新兴市场国家金融市场具有一定的冲击,在长期内对新兴市场国家经济增长存在滞后的正向作用.新兴市场国家应采取应对策略,做好风险识别和预警,加强预期管理,增强货币政策协调和合作,有效防范和化解外溢影响.     

How does news sentiment affect the states of Japanese stock return volatility?

This paper examines the impact of public news sentiment on the volatility states of firm-level returns on the Japanese Stock market. We firstly adopt a novel Markov Regime Switching Long Memory GARCH (MRS-LMGARCH), which is employed to estimate the latent volatility states of intraday stock return. By using the RavenPack Dow Jones News Analytics database, we fit discrete choice models to investigate the impact of news sentiment on changes of volatility states of the constituent stocks in the TOPIX Core 30 Index. Our findings suggest that news occurrence and sentiment, especially those of macro-economic news, are a key factor that significantly drives the volatility state of Japanese stock returns. This provides essential information for traders of the Japanese stock market to optimize their trading strategies and risk management plans to combat volatility.     

Distributional assumptions and a test of the dual labor market hypothesis

Recent application of the switching regression model to allocate workers into the primary and secondary labor markets is considered to be the best solution to the classification problem of the empirical testing of the dual labor market theory. In such models, normality of the error terms is assumed. This paper adopts the switching regression model to test the dual labor market theory by assuming different distributions of the error terms. The test results strongly support the dual labor market theory regardless of the assumption one makes about the error terms. However, the results indicate that different distribution can lead to different percentage distributions of workers in the two segments. In particular, the normal distribution generates more workers in the primary segment than the non-normal distributions. Therefore, care must be taken not to generalize the type of industries or occupations that fall under the primary and secondary segments. First version received: October 2000/Final version received: March 2002 RID="*" ID="*"  I would like to thank Kevin Lang, Robert Marshall, and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments. I am grateful for comments received from the session participants of the Western Economic Association International Conference, San Francisco, CA, June 28–July 2, 1996, and the Midwest Economic Association Conference, Kansas City, 1997. I thank George Bonney, the Chief Statistician of Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia for his comments. Any remaining errors are my responsibility. I gratefully acknowledge financial support from Penn State Research and Development Grant, 1995.     

Asymmetric ACD models: Introducing price information in ACD models

This paper proposes an asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, which extends the ACD model of Engle and Russell (1998). The asymmetry consists of letting the duration process depend on the state of the price process. If the price has increased, the parameters of the ACD model can differ from what they are if the price has decreased. The model is applied to the bid-ask quotes of two stocks traded on the NYSE and the evidence in favour of asymmetry is strong. Information effects (Easley and O'Hara 1992) are also empirically relevant. As the model is a transition model for the price process, it delivers `market forecasts' of where prices are heading. A trading strategy based on the model is implemented using tick-by-tick data.While remaining responsible for any error in this paper, the authors would like to thank R. Anderson, G. Le Fol, C. Gouriéroux, J. Jasiak, W. Pohlmeier, A. Roell, O. Scaillet, S. Wei and three anonymous referees for useful remarks and suggestions on previous versions. The authors would also like to thank A. Ruttiens from KBC-CBC for useful discussions on practical issues related to trading. Support of the European Commission Human Capital and Mobility Program through the network `Econometric inference using simulation methods' is gratefully acknowledged. This paper presents research results of the Belgian Program on Interuniversity Poles of Attraction initiated by the Belgian State, Prime Minister's Office, Science Policy Programming. The scientific responsibility is assumed by the authors.     

A strategic market game with seigniorage costs of Fiat money

Summary. A model that includes the cost of producing money is presented and the nature of the inefficient equilibria in the model are examined. It is suggested that if one acknowledges that transactions are a form of production, which requires the consumption of resources, then the concept of Pareto optimality is inappropriate for assessing efficiency. Instead it becomes necessary to provide an appropriate comparative analysis of alternative transactions mechanisms in the appropriate context. Received: September 5, 2000; revised version: May 3, 2001     

Economic liberalization and welfare in a model with an informal sector

The paper reexamines the conventional results relating to inflow of foreign capital, removal of protectionism and structural reform programmes, in a small open economy in terms of a two-sector general equilibrium model with an informal sector. The paper shows that in the presence of labour market distortion and a protectionist policy, inflow of foreign capital may be desirable irrespective of the pattern of trade of the economy due to its favourable impact on welfare. But the welfare implications of tariff reductions and/or structural adjustment programmes, such as deregulating the formal sector labour market, depend crucially on the economy's trade pattern. The paper provides an answer to the question as to whether in a developing economy labour market reform and tariff reform should go hand-in-hand or whether one should precede the other for welfare improvement.
JEL classification: F10, F13, F21, O17.     

内地制药行业企业进入西藏市场的战略模式选择

内地制药行业企业进入西藏市场对其自身发展壮大和西藏居民健康状况的改善具有双重的意义，因此对进入的战略模式选择的研究是至关重要的。本文分析了内地制药行业企业进入西藏市场的必要性、可行性，在此基础上研究了进入市场的四种主要战略模式选择，阐述了不同战略模式的特征。希望本文的研究能够给我国制药企业的发展和西藏的医疗卫生进步作出贡献。     

汇率决定理论的新近发展:文献综述

传统汇率决定理论对于现实经济中汇率实际变动情况的解释能力十分低下.20世纪80年代以来,学术界不断寻求突破,以期为汇率如何决定这一基本命题提供更为合理的解释.在这一过程中,不断有新的文献出现,从不同的方面对传统的汇率理论进行补充、发展和替代.鉴于此,本文试图对汇率决定理论的新近发展进行梳理和介绍,借以为国内经济学界研究汇率决定问题提供一个理论参考.     

Strategic freedom, constraint, and symmetry in one-period markets with cash and credit payment

Summary. In order to explain in a systematic way why certain combinations of market, financial, and legal structures may be intrinsic to certain capabilities to exchange real goods, we introduce criteria for abstracting the qualitative functions of markets. The criteria involve the number of strategic freedoms the combined institutions, considered as formalized strategic games, present to traders, the constraints they impose, and the symmetry with which those constraints are applied to the traders. We pay particular attention to what is required to make these strategic market games well-defined, and to make various solutions computable by the agents within the bounds on information and control they are assumed to have. As an application of these criteria, we present a complete taxonomy of the minimal one-period exchange economies with symmetric information and inside money. A natural hierarchy of market forms is observed to emerge, in which institutionally simpler markets are often found to be more suitable to fewer and less-diversified traders, while the institutionally richer markets only become functional as the size and diversity of their users gets large.Received: 5 June 2003, Revised: 18 November 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: C7, G10, G20, L10, D40, D50. Correspondence to: Eric SmithEric Smith, Martin Shubik: We are grateful to Lloyd Shapley, Duncan Foley, and Doyne Farmer for discussions in the course of this work.