Conditional Persistence of Earnings Components and Accounting Anomalies

We suggest that the failure of investors to distinguish between an earnings component's autocorrelation coefficient (unconditional persistence) and the marginal contribution of that component's persistence to the persistence of earnings (conditional persistence) provides a partial explanation of post‐earnings‐announcement drift, post‐revenue‐announcement drift, and the accrual anomaly. When the conditional persistence of revenue surprises is high (low) relative to its unconditional persistence, both the post‐earnings‐announcement drift and the post‐revenue‐announcement drift are high (low), because investors’ under‐reaction to revenues and earnings is stronger when the persistence of revenue surprises is more strongly associated with the persistence of earnings surprises. Also, the mispricing of accruals decreases substantially when the conditional persistence of accruals is high relative to its unconditional persistence, because investors’ over‐reaction to accruals is mitigated when the persistence of accruals is indeed more strongly associated with the persistence of earnings. Our findings also suggest that financial analysts’ failure to distinguish between unconditional and conditional persistence of revenues and accruals results in more biased revenue and earnings predictions.     

Does Accrual Management Impair the Performance of Earnings‐Based Valuation Models?

This study examines how accrual manipulations affect firm valuation in the years surrounding the passage of the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act (SOX). We compare the absolute percentage pricing errors of RIM and DCF valuation models for a group of US firms suspected to have engaged in accrual manipulations to avoid a small loss or a small earnings decline vs. ‘Normal’ firms matched on industry, year and size. We find that RIM can better estimate intrinsic value than DCF for the matched Normal firms in the pre‐SOX period, but not so for accrual manipulators, and that SOX mitigates the harmful effect of accrual manipulations, completely eliminating the difference in RIM's accuracy advantage over DCF between Normal firms and accrual manipulators. As a further analysis, we redefine Suspect firms as real‐activity manipulators and find a significant across‐group difference in accuracy wedge in both sample periods, implying that SOX has prompted firms to favor real‐activity manipulations over accrual manipulations.     

Corporate Stock and Bond Return Correlations and Dynamic Adjustments of Capital Structure

This paper analyses the effects of dynamic correlations between stock and bond returns issued by the same firm on the speed of adjustment towards target leverage. The results show that the estimated correlations are time varying, show persistence and differ among firms. Analysis of the potential explanatory variables reveals that the correlations decrease with negative expectations about future aggregate risks, but only for firms with a low default probability. In contrast, correlations are positively associated with specific risk measures, especially idiosyncratic stock risk and financial leverage. The positive relationship between the correlations and the leverage ratio suggests that target leverage can be achieved faster when the stock–bond correlation is high. Our results show that this is the case.     

Institutional Monitoring: Evidence from the F‐Score

The extant literature shows that institutional investors engage in corporate governance to enhance a firm's long‐term value. Measuring firm performance using the F‐Score, we examine the persistent monitoring role of institutional investors and identify the financial aspects of a firm that institutional monitoring improves. We find strong evidence that long‐term institutions with large shareholdings consistently improve a firm's F‐Score and that such activity occurs primarily through the enhancement of the firm's operating efficiency. Other institutions reduce a firm's F‐Score. Moreover, we find evidence that, while monitoring institutions improve a firm's financial health, transient (followed by non‐transient) institutions trade on this information.     

AN ANALYSIS OF SUPPLY CHAIN COLLABORATIONS AND THEIR EFFECT ON PERFORMANCE OUTCOMES

This research examined how operational outcomes, relational outcomes and business performance are affected by a collaboration project between buyers and suppliers in a supply chain. It is hypothesized that interdependence of knowledge and process, supply chain partner insight, and the level of collaboration between the firms affect the outcomes of a collaboration project. Survey data from buyers and suppliers from a wide range of industries and organizations were used in this analysis. Among these participants, higher levels of collaboration led to improvements in operational and relational outcomes, which together led to improvements in asset utilization, competitive position, organizational performance, and profitability.     

Applying the dissonance‐minimising format to value cultural heritage in developing countries*

We adapt the dissonance‐minimising (DM) format proposed by Blamey et al. [Land Economics, 75 (1999) 126] in a dichotomous choice contingent valuation survey to estimate the economic benefits of preserving a cultural heritage site in Vietnam. We find that the DM format can be successfully applied to avoid biases because of yea‐saying in a developing country context.     

Different but Similar: Social Comparison of Travel Motives Among Tourists

Although previous research suggests that people prefer to think of themselves as being authentic (or individualistic) travellers rather than stereotyped tourists, there have been few studies investigating the external validity of such claim. This paper addresses this research gap by investigating tendencies to dissociate the self from typical tourists in terms of travel motivation. Findings suggest that people perceive their own travel motives to be different from those who they perceive as typical tourists and that these tendencies generalize across people involved in different forms of tourism. This paper discusses the results from a social psychological perspective and provides implications for future research and destination management alike. © 2014 The Authors. International Journal of Tourism Research published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

湖北地方政府投融资平台的风险与重构研究

在预期利率水平走高和货币政策转向稳健的背景下,湖北某些地方融资平台还本付息压力陡增,必须谨防资金链断裂,从而避免资金危机和风险的倒逼。地方投融资平台的清理重构的基础条件是建立清晰的地方资产负债表和多样性的融资模式,但最终取决于地方政府自觉放弃在过多领域的投资主导,唯如此,才能在属于自己的领域规范地完成融资任务。     

企业资本结构和供应商融资:基于违约风险的考察

以2003—2009年间的1757个公司年度为样本,考察企业资本结构对供应商融资(应付账款和预付账款)的影响。研究发现:企业的资本结构(财务杠杆)对应付账款比例具有显著的负向效应;企业的资本结构(财务杠杆)对预付账款比例具有显著的正向效应;投资者保护程度较强的企业(国有控股企业和大规模企业)能够获得更多的供应商融资。     

银团贷款在控制政府融资平台风险中的应用——基于模糊综合风险评价的分析

地方政府融资平台信息不透明、治理结构不健全等情况给金融机构信贷风险控制带来挑战.银团贷款因为能提高信息共享、遏制信贷欺诈、分散信贷风险,所以能对控制集团客户风险发挥积极作用.可以模糊综合评价模型为基础,分析政府融资平台引入银团贷款模式后的风险评价,为控制地方政府融资平台信贷风险提供思路.