Liquidity risk and policy options

On the basis of a liquidity management model, liquidity risks, defined as the probability of payment failures in a real-time gross settlement (RTGS) payment system, may either stem from liquidity management inefficiencies or insufficient cash balances. I will show that penalties charged on the amount of payment failures minimise liquidity risks without interfering with the bank’s technology preferences. I will instead show that liquidity requirements, although as effective as penalties to contain the risk of liquidity shortage, may distort the bank’s technology preferences and cannot stem liquidity management inefficiencies. I will also show that liquidity risks within RTGS payment systems are potentially smaller because they depend more on the liquidity management efficiency than on the randomness of cash inflows and outflows.     

The macroeconomic relevance of bank and nonbank credit: An exploration of U.S. data

This paper exploits the Financial Accounts of the United States to derive long time series of bank and nonbank credit to different sectors, and to examine the cyclical behavior of these series in relation to (i) the long-term business cycle, (ii) recessions and recoveries, and (iii) systemic financial crises. We find that bank and nonbank credit exhibit different dynamics throughout the business cycle. We also examine the role of bank and nonbank credit in the creation of financial interconnections and illustrate a method to conduct macro-financial stability assessments.     

Venture capital trusts and the expiration of IPO lock-up provisions

Venture capital trusts (VCTs) were introduced to provide private equity capital for small expanding companies and to promote innovation. Investors in initial public offerings are rewarded with tax relief on the cost of lock-up provisions to stabilize the market. This paper examines the market reaction and trading activity around the expiration of lock-up provisions of 148 VCTs listed on the London Stock Exchange from 1995 to 2006. Downward-sloping demand curve theory suggests that an increased supply of VCT shares at the expiry date could shift their value to a new equilibrium at a lower price. Supporting this prediction, we document evidence of negative abnormal returns as well as permanent increases in the price discount relative to net asset value and trading volumes at and around the expiries of the required holding periods of VCTs. In addition, less negative abnormal returns, lower abnormal discounts and lower abnormal trading volumes are associated with VCTs that invest in AIM-listed companies due to lower information asymmetry, that experience lower prior performance due to a less pronounced disposition effect, and that are subject to a shorter lock-up horizon or are offering more generous tax benefits.     

The Role of Financial Ratios in the Variance of Stock Trading Volume in Emerging Stock Markets

The study used quarterly panel data of 6 years from 2010 to 2015 of all companies listed on both Vietnamese stock markets including the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange and Ha Noi Stock Exchange, and on three leading industries consisting of insurance-banking, foodstuff, and real estate to explore the relationship among four key financial ratios and stock trading volume. Two models, fixed effects model (FEM) and random effects model (REM), with robust standard errors, were applied for this study. The key findings showed that earnings before tax on sales, debt on owner’s equity, and owner’s equity on total assets significantly influenced trading volume.     

LACK OF RIGOUR IN DEFENDING FAIRTRADE: A REJOINDER TO ALISTAIR SMITH

Smith (2010 ) does not deny that he made errors in economic theory, logic and fact, and that he had misused evidence. He says that I misrepresented a large body of theory, that I distorted what he said in four places and that I was wrong in one sentence. These statements are false.     

Cointegration as an explanation for the Meese–Rogoff puzzle

Some economists suggest that the failure of exchange-rate models to outperform the random walk in exchange rate forecasting out of sample can be attributed to failure to take into account cointegration when it is present. We attempt to find out if cointegration matters for forecasting accuracy by examining the relation between the stationarity and size of the forecasting error. Results based on three macroeconomic models of exchange rates do not provide strong support for the proposition that cointegration matters for forecasting accuracy. The simulation results show that while stationary errors tend to be smaller than non-stationary errors, this is not a universal rule. Irrespective of the presence or absence of cointegration, none of the three models can outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting, which means that cointegration cannot solve the Meese–Rogoff puzzle.     

How does the market variance risk premium vary over time? Evidence from S&P 500 variance swap investment returns

We explore whether the market variance risk premium (VRP) can be predicted. We measure VRP by distinguishing the investment horizon from the variance swap’s maturity. We extract VRP from actual S&P 500 variance swap quotes and we test four classes of predictive models. We find that the best performing model is the one that conditions on trading activity. This relation is also economically significant. Volatility trading strategies which condition on trading activity outperform popular benchmark strategies, even once we consider transaction costs. Our finding implies that broker dealers command a greater VRP to continue holding short positions in index options in the case where trading conditions deteriorate.     

Pollution Permits: A Discussion of Fundamentals

The author provides an economic analysis of tradable pollution permits by clarifying the derivation of permit supply and demand relationships and connecting those concepts to permit trading for the case of two polluters. Using the standard comparison of costs and benefits, he makes the marginal cost of emission reduction of a typical polluter the basis of the derivation of its permit supply and demand schedules. Developing these relationships for both polluters allows the creation of market schedules for permit supply and demand. He demonstrates equilibrium in the market for permits and the corresponding trading of permits. He discusses the satisfaction of the equi-marginal principle, which ensures that pollution reduction is achieved efficiently. The author concludes by considering the consequences of the presence of a third polluter in the market for permits.