浅析我国地方政府债务风险管理

地方政府债务的问题已经在全世界引起了普遍的关注,如何合理地控制管理地方政府债务的风险具有重要的意义。本文在阐述我国地方政府债务现状及特点的基础上,对我国地方政府债务风险管理给出了相关的政策建议：控制政府举债规模、加强债务管理体系、完善政府偿债机制、建立风险监管机制。     

On ridge estimators for the negative binomial regression model

The negative binomial (NB) regression model is very popular in applied research when analyzing count data. The commonly used maximum likelihood (ML) estimator is very sensitive to highly intercorrelated explanatory variables. Therefore, a NB ridge regression estimator (NBRR) is proposed as a robust option of estimating the parameters of the NB model in the presence of multicollinearity. To investigate the performance of the NBRR and the traditional ML approach the mean squared error (MSE) is calculated using Monte Carlo simulations. The simulated result indicated that some of the proposed NBRR methods should always be preferred to the ML method.     

A coevolutionary model for promoting agricultural sustainability

This article presents a coevolutionary model of agricultural development that is based on observations from the environmental history of agriculture and the need for addressing development processes toward sustainability. It asserts that the challenge of agricultural sustainability can be fruitfully addressed within an analytical framework that consciously and explicitly considers agricultural development as consisting of processes of coevolution involving agriculture and the surrounding ecological and socioeconomic systems. Widening the processes to include strong interconnectedness with national and global systems with respect to off-farm resources and farm outputs has led to various agro-ecological problems. Strengthening local interaction and interconnectedness in a rural-urban context is found to be essential for developing a system of sustainable agriculture. Such development requires influencing many subsystems and implementing changes in production methods and land use as short-term responses to the problem, and technological development, resource allocation and changes in values as long-term responses. It also requires some sustainability principles and indicators in order to direct actions and to facilitate communications, which can be derived from the model. Applying the model on Swedish agricultural sustainability during the twentieth century reveals some, probably, important findings for “building” sustainable agriculture and lends support to the usefulness of the model.     

Conditional inference procedures for the Laplace distribution when the observed samples are progressively censored

In this paper, we develop procedures for obtaining confidence intervals for the parameters of a Laplace distribution as well as upper and lower γ probability tolerance intervals for a proportion β, given a progressively Type-II right censored sample from the Laplace distribution. The intervals are obtained by conditioning on the observed values of the ancillary statistics. The intervals are exact, do not require numerical integration, and generalize the work of Childs and Balakrishnan (1996) who considered the conventional Type-II right censored case. Received: February 2000     

"烧鞋风波"之后,对中国企业海外扩展的反思

温州鞋业在国外市场屡遭损失,原因值得深思 温州企业与政府、与当地人,没有很好的融合,以及其危机意识不够,都是导致温州企业受损的原因。温州企业只是在海外发展的我国企业的一部分,他们的失败教训对其他在海外的发展企业有重要借鉴意义。     

我国地方政府债务治理:近期目标与长效机制

我国地方政府债务问题凸显,地方融资平台公司及其债务只是其现阶段的形式体现,深层次的原因应从地方财政资金的供给和需求两个方面探寻。针对我国地方政府债务现状,先"治"后"理"是基本逻辑主线,近期目标是清理地方融资平台及其债务,但从长计议则应构建加强地方政府财力建设、规范地方债务管理的长效机制。     

Designs for Variance Components Estimation: Past and Present

This article provides (1) a comprehensive coverage of the literature on designs for estimating variance components, and (2) a review of recent applications of such designs in genetics, statistical process control, and quality improvement. In addition, recent methods of estimation of variance components and model forms, other than the linear, are discussed. The latter developments have a direct effect on the choice of design. Some suggested ideas for future research directions are also given.     

A score test under logistic regression models based on case–control data

We propose a score statistic to test the vector of odds ratio parameters under the logistic regression model based on case–control data. The proposed score test is based on the semiparametric profile loglikelihood function under a two-sample semiparametric model, which is equivalent to the assumed logistic regression model. The proposed score statistic has an asymptotic chi-squared distribution under the null hypothesis and an asymptotic noncentral chi-squared distribution under local alternatives to the null hypothesis. Moreover, we show that the proposed score test is asymptotically equivalent to the Wald test under the logistic regression model based on case–control data. In addition, we demonstrate that the proposed score statistic and its asymptotic distribution may be obtained by fitting the prospective logistic regression model to case–control data. We present some results on simulation and on the analysis of two real datasets.     

企业财务管理目标理论与实践矛盾及其对策

本文就财务管理目标理论与财务管理目标的实践问题进行了分析,并提出了解决矛盾的方法.     

Planning step-stress life test with progressively type I group-censored exponential data

Accelerated life testing of products is used to get information quickly on their lifetime distributions. This paper discusses a k -stage step-stress accelerated life test under progressive type I censoring with grouped data. An exponential lifetime distribution with mean life that is a log-linear function of stress is considered. A cumulative exposure model is also assumed. We use the maximum likelihood method to obtain the estimators of the model parameters. The methods for obtaining the optimum test plan are investigated using the variance-optimality and D-optimality criteria. Some numerical studies are discussed to illustrate the proposed criteria.