Estimation of the default risk of publicly traded companies: evidence from Canadian data

Through Canadian publicly traded companies, this study assessed how combining firms' continuous valuations by the market (structural model) with the value given in their financial statements (accounting model) could enhance prediction of a company's probability of default. The hybrid model outperformed other models. Specifically, estimated structural probabilities of default (PDs) contributed significantly to predicting default probabilities when they were included alongside accounting and macroeconomic variables in our hybrid model. These results were obtained with two versions of the structural model: the Merton model (Merton, 1973, 1974) and the default barrier model (Brockman & Turtle, 2003). Both models were estimated with the maximum likelihood method. Copyright © 2008 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Local government amalgamation policy: A highway maintenance evaluation

Evaluating the effects of a change in public policy setting is a critical element in the chain of accountability. Factors such as effectiveness and efficiency in government operations are often difficult to measure. In this study of efficiency outcomes, we follow events before and after significant structural change arising from local authority amalgamation. The study focuses on highway maintenance and uses Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to evaluate whether greater efficiency was achieved. Results (confined to highway management activities) show no evidence that amalgamation was justified in terms of diseconomies arising from smallness (i.e. increasing returns to scale). While new governance practices introduced contemporaneously lifted the level of performance of local authorities in terms of higher technical efficiency, there is no evidence that the amalgamation policy contributed to this improvement. The policy impact evaluation methodology developed in this paper has potential for application to other local government service activities.     

Local loop unbundling and antitrust policy

This paper examines economic effects of local loop unbundling. We confirm the common belief that the incumbent can deter entry effectively by denying local loop unbundling. However, contrary to the widely held perception, the incumbent may also benefit from local loop unbundling if it is obliged to accommodate entry, because denying the entrant’s request for local loop unbundling may compel the entrant to build its own facilities and this is just to abandon the incumbent’s chance to reap rental revenues. Furthermore, the model demonstrates that local loop unbundling itself does not weaken the entrant’s incentive of building facilities.     

长江三角洲城市群地方政府科技投入能力研究

科技投入是技术创新的基础条件,也是科技经济一体化的动力。政府科技投入是科技投资的重要组成部分,在引导科技投入和促进科技投入多元化和社会化方面也具有重要作用。本文从实证的角度研究了长江三角洲15个城市政府科技投入能力。     

圆度误差评定的内,外接圆法

介绍按最小外扫圆法、最大内接圆法评定圆度误差的一种快速、简便、易于微机实现孤数据处理方法。     

Three Sides of Smoothing: Categorical Data Smoothing, Nonparametric Regression, and Density Estimation

The past forty years have seen a great deal of research into the construction and properties of nonparametric estimates of smooth functions. This research has focused primarily on two sides of the smoothing problem: nonparametric regression and density estimation. Theoretical results for these two situations are similar, and multivariate density estimation was an early justification for the Nadaraya-Watson kernel regression estimator.
A third, less well-explored, strand of applications of smoothing is to the estimation of probabilities in categorical data. In this paper the position of categorical data smoothing as a bridge between nonparametric regression and density estimation is explored. Nonparametric regression provides a paradigm for the construction of effective categorical smoothing estimates, and use of an appropriate likelihood function yields cell probability estimates with many desirable properties. Such estimates can be used to construct regression estimates when one or more of the categorical variables are viewed as response variables. They also lead naturally to the construction of well-behaved density estimates using local or penalized likelihood estimation, which can then be used in a regression context. Several real data sets are used to illustrate these points.     

Distance Association Models for the Analysis of Repeated Transition Frequency Tables

The present paper is concerned with the analysis of repeated transition frequency tables, for example, occupational mobility data measured in different cohorts. The association present in such a table will be modeled by a distance in Euclidean space. A large distance corresponds to a small association; a small distance corresponds to a large association. A more direct interpretation is that more transitions occur between categories that are close together in a social space. It is assumed that the same social structure (space) exists for the different slices (cohorts/time points) of a table, but that the dimensions of this space are weighted for the different slices, i.e., for each slice the dimensions are stretched or squeezed. We will propose a model, discuss an algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimates and apply the model to an empirical data set.     

日德财政分权体制对地方经济发展的影响

财政分权体制与地方经济发展的关联性在理论界并没有达成共识。目本、德国“二战”以采财政分权体制在促进地方经济发展中都采取了较为合理的制度安排，不同程度地促进了国家、地区间的经济发展，但是也存在着有待改进的方面。两国的经验对深化和完善我国财政分权体制同样具有启示意义。     

Local volatility function models under a benchmark approach

Without requiring the existence of an equivalent risk-neutral probability measure this paper studies a class of one-factor local volatility function models for stock indices under a benchmark approach. It is assumed that the dynamics for a large diversified index approximates that of the growth optimal portfolio. Fair prices for derivatives when expressed in units of the index are martingales under the real-world probability measure. Different to the classical approach that derives risk-neutral probabilities the paper obtains the transition density for the index with respect to the real-world probability measure. Furthermore, the Dupire formula for the underlying local volatility function is recovered without assuming the existence of an equivalent risk-neutral probability measure. A modification of the constant elasticity of variance model and a version of the minimal market model are discussed as specific examples together with a smoothed local volatility function model that fits a snapshot of S&P500 index options data.