Conditionally dependent strategies for multiple-step-ahead prediction in local learning

Computational intelligence approaches to multiple-step-ahead forecasting rely on either iterated one-step-ahead predictors or direct predictors. In both cases the predictions are obtained by means of multi-input single-output modeling techniques. This paper discusses the limitations of single-output approaches when the predictor is expected to return a long series of future values, and presents a multi-output approach to long term prediction. The motivation for this work is that, when predicting multiple steps ahead, the forecasted sequence should preserve the stochastic properties of the training series. However, this may not be the case, for instance in direct approaches where predictions for different horizons are produced independently. We discuss here a multi-output extension of conventional local modeling approaches, and present and compare three distinct criteria for performing conditionally dependent model selection. In order to assess the effectiveness of the different selection strategies, we carry out an extensive experimental session based on the 111 series in the NN5 competition.     

财政分权对地方政府财政赤字规模膨胀的影响——来自分税制改革后中国省级的观察和经验证据

本文从理论和实证两方面探讨了分税制改革以来确立的财政分权模式对我国地方政府财政赤字规模日益膨胀的影响。理论分析表明,地方政府日益膨胀的财政赤字规模是现行财政体制下财权和事权割裂、公共池问题、横向策略互动以及政治锦标赛引发的激励扭曲和为增长而过度竞争等因素的综合产物。基于全国1998～2006年省际面板数据,本文的实证研究支持了我们的理论预期,即中国式财政分权对地方政府财政赤字规模的膨胀具有显著的正面激励作用。     

基于政治锦标赛制的地方官员竞争行为分析

在分析政治晋升锦标赛制度的内涵及其实施条件的基础上,通过构建我国地方官员的总效用函数,探讨了地方官员的综合利益。利用政治晋升负外部性模型,分析了中央政府主要以经济产出作为考核地方官员的政治晋升制度,必然导致竞争有余、合作不足的结果,最后有针对性总结了晋升锦标赛制度的积极性与局限性。     

Prediction intervals in conditionally heteroscedastic time series with stochastic components

Differencing is a very popular stationary transformation for series with stochastic trends. Moreover, when the differenced series is heteroscedastic, authors commonly model it using an ARMA-GARCH model. The corresponding ARIMA-GARCH model is then used to forecast future values of the original series. However, the heteroscedasticity observed in the stationary transformation should be generated by the transitory and/or the long-run component of the original data. In the former case, the shocks to the variance are transitory and the prediction intervals should converge to homoscedastic intervals with the prediction horizon. We show that, in this case, the prediction intervals constructed from the ARIMA-GARCH models could be inadequate because they never converge to homoscedastic intervals. All of the results are illustrated using simulated and real time series with stochastic levels.     

Linear programming-based estimators in simple linear regression

In this paper we introduce a linear programming estimator (LPE) for the slope parameter in a constrained linear regression model with a single regressor. The LPE is interesting because it can be superconsistent in the presence of an endogenous regressor and, hence, preferable to the ordinary least squares estimator (LSE). Two different cases are considered as we investigate the statistical properties of the LPE. In the first case, the regressor is assumed to be fixed in repeated samples. In the second, the regressor is stochastic and potentially endogenous. For both cases the strong consistency and exact finite-sample distribution of the LPE is established. Conditions under which the LPE is consistent in the presence of serially correlated, heteroskedastic errors are also given. Finally, we describe how the LPE can be extended to the case with multiple regressors and conjecture that the extended estimator is consistent under conditions analogous to the ones given herein. Finite-sample properties of the LPE and extended LPE in comparison to the LSE and instrumental variable estimator (IVE) are investigated in a simulation study. One advantage of the LPE is that it does not require an instrument.     

Sustainability reporting by local government in Australia: Current and future prospects

Sustainability reporting research has historically focused on the corporate sector, with public sector research still very much in its infancy. This exploratory study extends such research in considering the current and future state of local government sustainability reporting in Australia. We utilized a mail survey instrument to collect data. We found that local government in Australia reports on aspects of sustainability, with 50% of respondents indicating that they report on at least one area of sustainability with social reporting being most prevalent. Reporting existed across an array of reports, with no standout reporting focus found. The future of sustainability reporting in local government looks promising, with almost 40% of current non-reporters indicating that they are likely to report in the future.     

地方政府融资平台存在的问题及对策——以吐鲁番地区为例

本文首先介绍了政府性融资的途径和模式,并结合吐鲁番地区政府性融资的现状,分析了政府性融资存在的问题和风险,在此基础上提出了完善法律法规、加强政府信用建设、建立健全权利质押制度、建立＂平台公司＂风险防控机制以及增强风险防控意识等防范政府性融资风险的对策建议。     

社会公众参与地方立法的思考

社会公众参与地方立法,面临本身知识水平,在立法中的地位与作用有待进一步明确,参与的细节有待进一步完善等制约,可以从加强宣传、完善机制、建立和完善配套服务体系等方面着手提高地方立法的公众参与度。     

产业集群对中国地区差距的影响——兼论对中部崛起的启示

中国地区差距日益突出,已经成为中国改革开放中的一个重要问题。造成地区差异的原因有很多,本文从新经济地理学角度,论证了产业集群是造成中国地区差距的一个重要原因。并在结论中指出形成产业集群是中部地区崛起的突破点,对促进中部地区的经济发展具有重大的战略意义。     

基于双剪统一强度理论的复合滑开断裂研究

为了预测复合裂纹呈滑开型(Ⅱ型)的断裂,将双剪统一强度理论应用到断裂力学,在此提出了双剪应力因子最大向径复合滑开断裂准则,应用该准则探讨了Ⅰ、Ⅱ型及Ⅰ-Ⅱ复合裂纹滑开断裂问题;并计算了不同裂纹角β情况下,单向受拉中心斜裂纹滑开破坏的开裂角和临界荷载,将其数据与径向剪应力准则的计算结果进行了对比,结果显示两者符合较为一致。因此,证明了该准则在预测复合裂纹呈滑开型(Ⅱ型)断裂是可行的。