An Empirical Analysis of Productivity in Philippine Agriculture, 1974–2000

Using recent agricultural data sets, we estimate a non-neutral and non-homothetic translog variable cost function to empirically investigate Philippine agricultural productivity. Overall, the annual average productivity growth rate is 0.51 percent. The highest productivity level is observed during the post-Green Revolution period (1974–1980). Thereafter, productivity growth shows a discernible decline up until the late 1990s. This indicates that productivity level during the Green Revolution era has not been sustained or paralleled, despite substantial policy changes put in place since 1986 to invigorate the agricultural sector. The government should therefore continue to promote technological progress in Philippine agriculture; however, this may require redirection of its present policy by placing more emphasis on productivity-enhancing investments, such as research and development, irrigation and other infrastructure.     

On testing for symmetry in business cycles

Business cycle forecasting has become an important part of short and medium term economic planning. Such forecasting, however, is often very intricate, as business cycles are not at all periodic, just recurrent. Furthermore, they often include irregular timing and varying amplitudes. When patterns and relationships are very irregular there are no simple reliable business cycle forecasting procedures. In practice there is, somewhere, a limit for business cycle predictability, and it is often worthwhile to examine empirically the various theoretical regularity assumptions. One important regularity issue concerns the business cycle symmetry assumption. The present paper empirically tests the hypothesis of symmetry around business cycle turning points in some economic time series. Two test procedures are applied. One is based on the analysis of transition probabilities between expansion and recession regimes. The second procedure tests symmetry versus asymmetry through skewness statistics. The analysis is based on detrending through the use of linear deterministic trends as well as by Beveridge-Nelson decompositions.     

Local externalities and societal adoption of technologies

In this paper we study the effect of local network externalities on the societal adoption of competing technologies. Three cases are examined: single non-sponsored technology, single sponsored technology, and two non-sponsored technologies. The efficiency and predictability of the technology adoption process for each case is investigated. We demonstrate non-predictability for single technology case and efficiency for the two technology case. We show the firm sponsoring a technology may choose a strategy that leads to the extinction of the technology.     

Convenient links for the estimation of hedonic price indexes: the case of unique,infrequently traded assets

Hedonic methods are a prominent approach in the construction of quality‐adjusted price indexes. This paper shows that the process of computing such indexes is substantially simplified if arithmetic (geometric) price indexes are computed based on exponential (log‐linear) hedonic functions estimated by the Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood (ordinary least squares) method. A Monte Carlo simulation study based on housing data illustrates the convenience of the links identified and the very attractive properties of the Poisson estimator in the hedonic framework.     

完善地方金融管理体制的若干思考

随着地方金融组织发展壮大,部分地区探索建立完善地方金融管理体制,加强对区域内金融事务的协调管理。与此同时,地方政府行使地方金融管理职能过程中仍存在较多局限和不足。本文概述了地方金融管理的国际经验和国内目前的现状,剖析了地方金融管理中存在的一些问题,提出了建立完善适合我国国情的地方金融管理体制的相关建议。     

房价调控、地方政府债务与宏观经济波动

在地方政府债务高企的背景下,房价调控能否使资本流向非房地产部门？房价调控如果触发地方政府债务违约,宏观政策应如何应对？本文基于中国宏观经济的特征事实,引入地方政府的土地财政行为,将房价变动与地方政府的偿债能力联系起来。研究表明,由于地方政府依赖土地出让和土地抵押贷款筹集收入,房价管控导致的地价下降会带来地方政府收入的下降,直接影响地方政府的偿债能力。如果地方政府债务不出现违约,那么房价管控带来的地价下降会降低地方政府从金融部门获得的抵押融资额,使非基建部门的融资成本下降,非基建部门投资和产出上升。而如果调控房价带来的地价下降导致地方政府出现债务违约,金融部门资产受损,使金融中介减少贷款和提高贷款成本,带来整个社会的信贷紧缩,经济中各个部门的产出大幅下降。进一步的政策分析表明,有必要在避免地方政府债务违约的同时,使用财政资金补充银行资本金等多种方式稳定金融中介的资产负债表,从而将房价调控对经济的负面影响程度降到最低。     

地方政府管理体制:区域经济一体化发展的重要制度瓶颈

随着我国地区间经济交往的不断加深和市场经济体制的建立完善,区域经济一体化得到了较快发展,取得了较大的成就,但是衍生的问题也十分突出.我国地方政府管理体制在行政区划、职能定位、机构设置和运行机制等方面与区域经济一体化存在不适应性,是区域经济一体化向纵深发展的重要制度瓶颈因素.只有创新地方政府管理体制,即调整行政区划、转变政府职能、改革政府机构、重塑府际关系、创新区域管理运作机制等,才能解决区域经济一体化发展中的制度瓶颈问题,促进地方政府管理体制与区域经济一体化发展之间的和谐互动.     

Shaping the bargaining agenda. The Audit Commission and public service reform in British local government

This article examines the role of the Audit Commission (AC) in local government collective bargaining. While the AC has no official role in such bargaining, it has a role in monitoring the performance of local government services. In this role the AC has a clear potential, in the context of the government's ‘modernization’ agenda – as manifested in its ‘Best Value’ regime, for influencing both the content of collective agreements, and the process of collective bargaining, where these are seen to conflict with other Best Value objectives – particularly in relation to external competition. The research conducted involved a content analysis of AC inspection reports on human resource services and longitudinal case studies of two local authority union branches' experiences of Best Value and the role of the AC. The findings from the inspection reports indicate that, while the AC is actually acting to promote activities that could be seen as supportive of union bargaining agendas, notably in relation to equality type issues, they are also supporting service externalisation and thereby acting to limit the scope of their impact. The reports also indicate that, despite there being prescribed ‘best practice’ for local government employment relations (‘social partnership’ with unions), the AC is not promoting any such engagement with unions. Evidence from the case studies add weight to these observations: the AC, in one case, was deeply suspicious of an attempted union management agreement on procurement, while in the other, the AC made no criticism of the costly effects that externalization had on union-management relations.     

中国股市的最大值效应

本文证实我国股市的投资者们长期存在对股票历史业绩的反应过度现象。我们发现历史上拥有最高收益率的股票在之后业绩都表现不佳。其主要原因是我国股市的投资者们在做投资选择时都遵循一条简单的规则:即在其他条件都相同的情况下,选择拥有最高的历史收益率的股票进行投资。集中投资使拥有最高的历史收益率的股票被过高评价,导致其后来的业绩表现要比那些拥有较低历史收益率的股票差。我们称之为"最大值效应"。通过使用Fama and Macbeth(1973)横断面回归分析方法,我们确认了"最大值效应"要比CAPM理论,Blitz and Pim van Vliet(2007)发现的"波动性效应"等更为有效地解释我国股市横断面股票收益率。     

浅论地方本科院校物流管理专业的人才培养模式

对地方本科院校物流管理专业的特点进行了阐述,对该专业目前的人才培养模式进行了分析。根据地方本科院校的定位,探讨了物流管理专业人才培养模式。