环境污染治理中企业政府间博弈分析

环境污染限制着国家绿色竞争力的提升,同时也制约着整个社会福利水平的提高。目前我国主要采用行政手段来治理环境污染,但是由于政府和企业之间存在着一定的利益联系,政府制定的环保政策通常无法达到预期的效果。采用新的政绩考核标准,加快产业结构调整,改善产业布局以及引入第三方监督机制是解决环境污染问题的有效途径。     

中国金融扩张下的本土企业创新效应——基于倒U型关系的一个解释

2005年后,我国金融发展呈现出相对持续扩张和地区异质性两个核心特征,基于此,本文针对2005-2016年中国各省份地区金融业增加值占GDP比重持续扩张对本土企业创新活动的影响效应进行实证研究发现:金融业增加值占GDP比重持续扩张与本土企业创新投入呈稳定的倒U型关系,从而验证了我国各省份地区金融扩张对地区内微观企业创新活动造成两面性影响效应这一基本事实。具体而言,其抑制效应主要作用于31.55%的本土企业、尤其体现在45.98%的私人所有性质企业创新活动方面。从企业内源和外源创新活动的细分角度看,我国各省份地区的金融扩张对31.38%的本土企业以及55.66%的私人所有性质企业的内源创新活动产生了显著抑制效应。而对企业外源创新活动所产生的抑制作用,则主要体现在独立法人和私人所有性质为主的民营企业方面。本文的一系列经验发现,为协调实现中国金融业增加值占GDP比重合理扩张与促进本土企业自主创新能力提升的战略目标,提供了独特的经验证据,可为进一步推进我国金融体制改革提供有益参考。     

Testing the Alchian–Allen theorem for three goods using the pseudo Poisson model

We show that the Alchian–Allen theorem holds in three‐good world. We empirically test the theorem by examining the relative demand for three quality‐differentiated coffee varieties sold globally and confirm that a common per‐unit charge increases the overall quality of coffee demanded. Our empirical specification employs the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method, which prevents sample selection bias when zero flows between country pairs occur and estimated parameter inconsistency when the data exhibit heteroscedasticity. This is a significant improvement compared to previous practice of using the ordinary least squares to estimate the log‐log formulation, which led to both biased and inconsistent parameter estimates.     

Disaggregated oil shocks and stock-market tail risks: Evidence from a panel of 48 economics

We analyse the impact of oil supply, global economic activity, oil-specific consumption demand, and oil-inventory demand shocks on equity-market tail risks of a panel of 48 developed and emerging economies over the monthly period from 1975:01 to 2017:12. We find that, oil supply, global economic activity, and oil-inventory demand shocks reduce tail risks, but oil-specific consumption demand shock increases tail risks, with these effects stronger in oil-exporting economies. Our results have important implications for investors and policymakers.     

地方金融监管机构的职责、痛点与监管方向研究

基于金融监管半径及细度、深度,互联网新技术的产生带来金融业务的高成长性以及中央与地方的行政分权体制决定了成立地方金融监管局的必要性,但地方金融监管机构由于其监管对象具有特定的内容,同国家监管机构相比既有很多的优势,也有不少的劣势,因时因地选择监管战略是充分发挥地方金融监管机构的作用,防范地方金融风险的重要前提条件。     

Bonus pay for teachers,spatial sorting,and student achievement

Bonus pay policy for teachers in the U.S. is analyzed in this paper. We quantitatively argue that, because of the decentralized education finance system in the U.S., this policy may lead to higher teacher and household sorting across school districts. This then may lead to higher variance of achievement and lower mean achievement. Formally, we use an equilibrium political economy model of education at which households, heterogeneous in exogenously set income, and teachers, heterogeneous in exogenously set quality, are endogenously allocated across two school districts. Public education expenditures, which includes teachers’ wage payment and non-teacher related education spending, are financed through local income taxation. Income tax rate in each district is determined via majority voting. Achievement depends on the efforts chosen by teachers and non-teacher related education spending. Teacher efficiency wage per unit of quality is determined at the national teacher labor market. We first calibrate our benchmark model by matching certain statistics from the U.S. data. Then in a computational experiment, we introduce bonus pay for teachers which rises with average achievement. We find that for the recently observed level of average bonus pay (6.59% of average base salary), variance of achievement is 2.46% higher and mean achievement is 1.79% lower than the benchmark. Variance of achievement reaches its peak when average bonus pay is 14.06% and then it starts falling. Also, mean achievement always falls as average bonus pay rises.     

On Quantile‐based Asymmetric Family of Distributions: Properties and Inference

In this paper, we provide a detailed study of a general family of asymmetric densities. In the general framework, we establish expressions for important characteristics of the distributions and discuss estimation of the parameters via method‐of‐moments as well as maximum likelihood estimation. Asymptotic normality results for the estimators are provided. The results under the general framework are then applied to some specific examples of asymmetric densities. The use of the asymmetric densities is illustrated in a real‐data analysis.     

Properties of h-Likelihood Estimators in Clustered Data

We study properties of the maximum h-likelihood estimators for random effects in clustered data. To define optimality in random effects predictions, several foundational concepts of statistics such as likelihood, unbiasedness, consistency, confidence distribution and the Cramer–Rao lower bound are extended. Exact probability statements about interval estimators for random effects can be made asymptotically without a prior assumption. Using the binary-matched pair example, we illustrated that the use of random effects recover information, leading to the boon on estimating treatment effects.     

财政压力与地方政府融资平台的兴起

本文利用2004-2006年取消农业税的自然实验,使用1994—2009年的县级面板数据首次从实证上检验了财政压力导致地方政府融资平台成立这一假说。利用双重差分模型研究发现,取消农业税改革导致的财政冲击越大,县级地方政府在改革后设立融资平台的概率越高。这一发现在不同模型设定下保持稳健,并通过了基于改革前样本和利用其他税种收入变动构造的安慰剂检验。我们还排除了上述发现由扩权强县和财政省直管县等其他财政制度改革驱动的可能性。进一步的分析表明,面临更激烈的区域间竞争、初始财政禀赋较低的县更倾向于设立融资平台。本文丰富了关于财政压力对中国地方政府行为影响的研究,有助于更好地理解中国财政体制与金融制度之间复杂的关联性。